Possible dollar decline?
Atualizado
After a November in free fall, the dollar has regained some strength in the last 10 days. is this just a retracement or a route change towards the October highs? Hard to say, but we are certainly now approaching an important zone between 104.5 and 105 (105 also psychological threshold).
Again the same zone corresponds to the high of 31 May and the 61,8% Fibonacci of the last bearish impulse.
Between Tuesday and Wednesday there are PCI and PPI data and the FOMC will meet.
No one has a crystal ball, but given the rapid fall in oil in the last period and the labour market showing the first signs of slowing down, we could expect PCI and PPI to be slightly below expectations, which could mean a higher probability of a rate cut in 2024 and consequently a fall in the dollar.
Consiering my enormous curiosity, I also want to pose an alternative view, valid in case PCI and PPI are higher than expected. In fact as shown below I see a beautiful head and shoulder, with a projection that just right would take us to the highs of 10 November.
Neither vision is wrong in my opinion, looking at the chart would certainly bring up dozens of different analyses, but what will make the chart take a direction will most likely be the data. This means that you should not focus on your own ideas, but be flexible and ready for anything.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/T5XPfC1Y/
Every comment is welcome, I think it helps to grow.
Again the same zone corresponds to the high of 31 May and the 61,8% Fibonacci of the last bearish impulse.
Between Tuesday and Wednesday there are PCI and PPI data and the FOMC will meet.
No one has a crystal ball, but given the rapid fall in oil in the last period and the labour market showing the first signs of slowing down, we could expect PCI and PPI to be slightly below expectations, which could mean a higher probability of a rate cut in 2024 and consequently a fall in the dollar.
Consiering my enormous curiosity, I also want to pose an alternative view, valid in case PCI and PPI are higher than expected. In fact as shown below I see a beautiful head and shoulder, with a projection that just right would take us to the highs of 10 November.
Neither vision is wrong in my opinion, looking at the chart would certainly bring up dozens of different analyses, but what will make the chart take a direction will most likely be the data. This means that you should not focus on your own ideas, but be flexible and ready for anything.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/T5XPfC1Y/
Every comment is welcome, I think it helps to grow.
Nota
My analysis EUR/USD
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