Türk lirası (USDTRY)- Textbook Entries 🏛️📑
Atualizado
Given that I am Long on EURUSD this period i prefer to trade EURTRY instead of USDTRY:
Check my post here for targets:
Thoughts:
Some governments (not the people) prefer their currency cheap, it helps with exports.
People choose their government. In this case Erdogan has been re-elected.
A cheaper Turkish lira supports the plan of what I will dare to call 'Islamo-China-ization':
Cheap currency helps bring tourism and business but does not help the Turks study abroad or buy from abroad. China for example likes their currency cheap.
Erdogan focuses on producing and selling (from goods to guns) instead of importing and at the same time turns the country into a 'claustrophobic anti-Western entity' to achieve so. Off course himself and his bankers are only growing stronger assisting Russians with sanctions and keeping 'one leg in NATO and the other in the East'.
Creating an 'enemy or 2 or 3 or 50' helps the cause. Talking about Ottoman empire, Islam and 'kismet' also helps the 'Supreme Leader's' purpose.... but this sounds more like Iran and North Korea than a 'democratic modern nation'. Are people happy in those countries/regimes?
These can be dangerous days for the Turkish Lira and the Turkish people.
Will the IMF need to step in?
Will it want to step in?
Will Erdogan accept it?
Or will Qatar, the Russians or anyone else (?)
run to the rescue for their own interest?
Could that be the BRICS? (in any case, there is no such thing as free money)
All these questions will remain un-answered until we know the answer.
For the time being TRY keeps weakening against the USD and EUR.
26,5 TRY to a EUR is a possibility here.
By the way,
my last post was a PERFECT entry and it was the third in a row:
When a country goes into economic problems and it's leader is a revisionist there lies a danger of war. Ukraine is a battlefield nearby where East and West are 're-shaping borders'.
The worst case scenario here would be for Turkey to end up picking a 'camp' and entering a fight, which historically has happened many times in similar situations.
(Look at the last 2 links below....)
“Old men make war, young men fight and die.”
— Winston Churchill
I can only wish Turkish people peace and prosperity and may Erdogan find a balance between reality and economy.
Young people with 'warm blood' should not waste it for 'dangerous political ambitions' but instead should have access to education, opportunities, jobs and prosperous future.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Links:
Economic unorthodoxy and culture wars : theguardian.com/world/2023/may/29/turkish-lira-plunges-as-erdogan-claims-mandate-to-continue-divisive-rule
The West: bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65743475
Brics: watcher.guru/news/turkey-to-join-and-adopt-brics-currency-in-2023
Russia and Turkey have a Long history of being friends and then fighting: reuters.com/world/russias-mercenaries-send-back-bodies-us-turkish-citizens-ukraine-2023-05-25/
Turkey and Greece tensions ease: greekcitytimes.com/2023/05/30/turkey-and-greece-have-mutually-agreed-to-cancel-their-naval-exercises-as-part-of-efforts-to-improve-bilateral-relations/
EURTRY PERFECT ENTRIES:
tradingview.com/u/FX_Professor/[EURTRY]
Check my post here for targets:
Thoughts:
Some governments (not the people) prefer their currency cheap, it helps with exports.
People choose their government. In this case Erdogan has been re-elected.
A cheaper Turkish lira supports the plan of what I will dare to call 'Islamo-China-ization':
Cheap currency helps bring tourism and business but does not help the Turks study abroad or buy from abroad. China for example likes their currency cheap.
Erdogan focuses on producing and selling (from goods to guns) instead of importing and at the same time turns the country into a 'claustrophobic anti-Western entity' to achieve so. Off course himself and his bankers are only growing stronger assisting Russians with sanctions and keeping 'one leg in NATO and the other in the East'.
Creating an 'enemy or 2 or 3 or 50' helps the cause. Talking about Ottoman empire, Islam and 'kismet' also helps the 'Supreme Leader's' purpose.... but this sounds more like Iran and North Korea than a 'democratic modern nation'. Are people happy in those countries/regimes?
These can be dangerous days for the Turkish Lira and the Turkish people.
Will the IMF need to step in?
Will it want to step in?
Will Erdogan accept it?
Or will Qatar, the Russians or anyone else (?)
run to the rescue for their own interest?
Could that be the BRICS? (in any case, there is no such thing as free money)
All these questions will remain un-answered until we know the answer.
For the time being TRY keeps weakening against the USD and EUR.
26,5 TRY to a EUR is a possibility here.
By the way,
my last post was a PERFECT entry and it was the third in a row:
When a country goes into economic problems and it's leader is a revisionist there lies a danger of war. Ukraine is a battlefield nearby where East and West are 're-shaping borders'.
The worst case scenario here would be for Turkey to end up picking a 'camp' and entering a fight, which historically has happened many times in similar situations.
(Look at the last 2 links below....)
“Old men make war, young men fight and die.”
— Winston Churchill
I can only wish Turkish people peace and prosperity and may Erdogan find a balance between reality and economy.
Young people with 'warm blood' should not waste it for 'dangerous political ambitions' but instead should have access to education, opportunities, jobs and prosperous future.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Links:
Economic unorthodoxy and culture wars : theguardian.com/world/2023/may/29/turkish-lira-plunges-as-erdogan-claims-mandate-to-continue-divisive-rule
The West: bbc.com/news/uk-politics-65743475
Brics: watcher.guru/news/turkey-to-join-and-adopt-brics-currency-in-2023
Russia and Turkey have a Long history of being friends and then fighting: reuters.com/world/russias-mercenaries-send-back-bodies-us-turkish-citizens-ukraine-2023-05-25/
Turkey and Greece tensions ease: greekcitytimes.com/2023/05/30/turkey-and-greece-have-mutually-agreed-to-cancel-their-naval-exercises-as-part-of-efforts-to-improve-bilateral-relations/
EURTRY PERFECT ENTRIES:
tradingview.com/u/FX_Professor/[EURTRY]
Nota
EURTRY (and usdtry) approaching targets... mission accomplished 
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