Reversal At 11474? | #forex $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHG $AUD $CAD

5 de dez. de 2014

04 DEC 2014 - Update:


Friends,

Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.


In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.

Looking at the USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).

The following chart is looking at a dual view:

1 - Top is USDJPY

and

2 - Bottom is USDJPY tempered by ES.





The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.

For instance, we have recently looked at:

1 - The possible topping in USDRUB:


(Source: tradingview.com/v/mly72Nnu/ )


2 - The potential near-reversal in XAUUSD:


(Source: tradingview.com/v/bmSQEDux/ )


3 - A technical recovery in GBPUSD:


(Source: tradingview.com/v/K20vQUOS/ )


4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in USDCAD:


(Source: tradingview.com/v/TZWtIyLW/ )


5 - A near-complete target-hit in USDCHF at TG-Hi:


Source: tradingview.com/v/cFdnLaJP/ )


6 - A pending 5th wave completion in EURUSD:


(Source: tradingview.com/v/7YuRvla8/ )


7 - And a similar AUDUSD geometric completion in AUDUSD:


(Source: tradingview.com/v/xbIj5UD5/ )


OVERALL:

In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.

Most recently, the ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.

tradingview.com/v/ffEGZOy2/

Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: 4xForecaster
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