USDJPY: What goes up.. Must come down. Massive Trading Lesson
Atualizado
Looking at the USDJPY will provide perhaps the most important lesson in trading you can find. Ascertaining what is Market value; what is a high price (and what your decision needs to be) VS what is a low price and what you should do.
The USDJPY is a classic example. Price has rallied for 22 months or so and the price has risen enormously. This is OVERSOLD and you can see how Traders (Who know what they are doing) have moved into the market and pushed it down. We called it and said this would happen because we looked at the market from a factual non biased perspective.
We also looked back to key price action levels to determine what further adds to the concoction (evidence) for a short.
Tie it all together and you get a fall you can take gains on. We can now look for further falls after price pops until we reach Price levels to get final exits, again using our knowledge of market value.
All in all, when trading any market, just do it factually. No stories. High price V Low. That's what works!
I hope that helps as always!
The USDJPY is a classic example. Price has rallied for 22 months or so and the price has risen enormously. This is OVERSOLD and you can see how Traders (Who know what they are doing) have moved into the market and pushed it down. We called it and said this would happen because we looked at the market from a factual non biased perspective.
We also looked back to key price action levels to determine what further adds to the concoction (evidence) for a short.
Tie it all together and you get a fall you can take gains on. We can now look for further falls after price pops until we reach Price levels to get final exits, again using our knowledge of market value.
All in all, when trading any market, just do it factually. No stories. High price V Low. That's what works!
I hope that helps as always!
Nota
Exit shorts as we fall to comfortable Early supportNota
After taking short side profits, look to RE short again so we can take gains on RE tests. Use inference and See where traders are looking to short (based on where they did previously)
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Out again at second target for gains.Nota
Get RE short looking for intraday gainsNota
Exit again for profit.Nota
So now you’ve shorted 3X. You made money. Do not listen to the guys who buy highs... it can hurt!Nota
Exit all shorts and start to get lightly long for fast exits.Nota
Exit light longs for more gains.Nota
And BOOM down it goes... Now is the time to trade very lightly on longs. Do not Weigh in!Nota
Coming down to REASONABLE light support circa 139.650 if you are long it must be lightNota
Kill all shorts. Way down on the fall, early exits on longs taken.Now as we fall stay up to date with UJ long zones
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Get lightly short again.Nota
Looking for short gains next week on early exits.Nota
Taking on light shorts. Further around 138.Nota
Hold off anymore entries until 138.00 area. This gives you key PA zones for short side trades following on from previous fall. Reflect on MACRO trend long term.Nota
Hold off shorts and do not fomo. More comfortable resistance for front runners / mid size at 1376
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Get short now.Nota
Exit 40 pips gain.Nota
Only RE short on a higher push up.Nota
Another smash fall. Take short gainsNota
Looking to RE short on further rise (scaling in on early Entry CONF)Nota
massive fall exit for gains again.Nota
And another great UJ call. Slammed south..Look for light longs and scaling in at key PA levels.
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Main Sentiment (market mood) update to follow:Silicon valley banks, Inflationary measures / Rate changes.
SPIKING FEAR GAUGE.
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Look for light longs at key pre mentioned PA zonesNota
Looking for light longs at 131.75Nota
Still awaiting long zones circa 131.75Nota
Look to scale in light long.Nota
Exit any secondary Longs taken and exit any former longs taken.Nota
exit longs look short nearer 1.3455Nota
There is room for LIGHT shorts but far more feasible higher up.Nota
Also room now for very light longs and early exits alike.Nota
UJ showing WEAK PA. Risk Averse Longs come in line with 100 MA on W chart circa 125
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Exit light longs taken. Risk averse for new longs remains on harsher fall as described ^Nota
Short Side LOW market Value Long side is WEAK. Hold off shorts until further up and longs until further down it is a no trade.
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Risky Scalp market do NOT jump in with boredom. 126 and 134 respectively for longs and shorts RISK AVERSENota
USDJPY weakness showing. Do not fomo and lump in you have ZERO key PA and zero sentiment.Nota
Still looking slightly higher for shorts 134Nota
NOTE Risk Averse TGT shorts 13765Nota
Note weak longside PA. Looking for further falls to risk averse zones @ 126Nota
Scalpers market / TINY risk trades applicable here until we reach significant levels up or down (1377 1260)Nota
UJ still very boring. Looking for impulsive move and action.Nota
And still lacking Movement, this is when market becomes a scalpers market. Its OK to let markets move sometimes because you will put risk up otherwise.Nota
Get shortNota
Out on the fallNota
Usdjpy smoked again exit all shortsNota
Hold off re shortsNota
Light longs appropriateNota
Out all longs shorts coming 1.4
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Posts Not financial advice.
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