USD/JPY lost bullish impetus in recent days after its strong rally in late May, but may soon regain positive momentum on widening yield spreads between U.S. and Japanese bonds (see chart below). This means the pair’s path of least resistance continues to be higher in the near term.
In terms of possible scenarios, if USD/JPY accelerates higher in the coming days, overhead resistance is located 140.45-141.55. If bulls manage to clear this barrier decisively, we could see a move toward 142.45, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022/January 2023 pullback.
In the event of a setback, initial support appears around the 138.00 handle, followed by the 200-day simple moving average near 137.30
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