"USDJPY Currency Pair Analysis: JPY Family Movement"
💹 Let's dive into my favorite Forex currency pair,
USDJPY
and review our previous analysis and its outcome, and then explore new entry points together.
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Thank you all for helping this channel reach 700 followers! Our next goal is 1,000 followers. Let's keep growing together!
⚖️ Factors Leading to the Yen's Weakness:
📚 Higher-Than-Expected Inflation in the United States:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased more than expected, leading to higher U.S. Treasury yields as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will continue its tight monetary policies. This has strengthened the USD as investors seek higher returns.
🚥 Federal Reserve on Interest Rates:
The Fed indicated in its recent meeting that it expects fewer rate cuts in 2024, predicting only one rate cut. This less-than-expected dovish stance underscores the Fed's commitment to
controlling inflation, boosting the USD.
🏧 Bank of Japan's Monetary Policies:
While the Fed continues its tightening policies, the Bank of Japan maintains its expansionary stance. The BOJ kept its policies unchanged in the recent meeting, with no major changes expected. This divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and Japan has weakened the JPY against the USD.
These factors have collectively increased the USD/JPY exchange rate due to the monetary policy and economic conditions favoring the USD.
📊 Previous Analysis Review:
In our previous analysis, we identified potential future targets using Fibonacci retracement levels, predicting movements if the critical resistance at 151.802 was breached. The Bank of Japan focused heavily on this level. After breaking it, as predicted, we saw the JPY weaken and the USD strengthen.
Chart Analysis
🕒 Monthly Time Frame Analysis:
After about 20 years, we’ve returned to these levels, reaching the multi-year resistance box, signaling a strong bullish trend recently.
Additionally, the RSI on the weekly time frame is at a crucial point. If it breaks 70.12 and enters the overbought zone, we could continue our upward movement, potentially breaking the resistance box. The last time we entered the overbought zone was in March 2022, leading to a strong bullish trend, so it might happen again.
The monthly candle is very strong, indicating buyer strength, with the lower shadow showing that sellers tried to bring the price down, but buyers took control with greater force.
🕛 Weekly Time Frame Analysis:
Contrary to most currency pairs, we see a strong upward movement in the JPY pairs, with the JPY weakening significantly across all JPY pairs.
We also have a parabolic curve line indicating a bullish nature, as each bounce off this line has led to an upward movement. Given the proximity to the resistance box, a potential reaction is likely. After breaking this curve line or confirming the trigger at 151.845, we could enter a mid-term bearish phase.
📅 Daily Time Frame Analysis:
The weekly curve line is clearer and more valid in the daily time frame. Breaking it might indicate the end of the bullish trend, and we could see fluctuations within the 151.845 to 158.607 box.
The daily resistance at 158.607 is from years ago, with only one historical touch, making it less relevant. We focus on recent points of contact and plan positions after breaking it.
The candle sizes are bothersome, suggesting a potential new movement start, similar to how decreasing volume in crypto indicates a new trend. Today's daily candle is strong, potentially offering a position opportunity.
🔄 Future Resistance Levels:
Given the absence of immediate resistances and old data, we consider future spaces based on Fibonacci levels:
If we break 158.451, we face resistance at 160.611, 162.749, and 165.842.
⏰ Four-Hour Time Frame Analysis:
The candle closed above our resistance, allowing us to start moving, whether now or during the U.S. session. Stay alert and ensure you have a position.
📈 Long Position Strategy:
I entered at the one-hour time frame, waiting for targets. Use the four-hour candle to position yourself. The position was opened with a stop loss at the previous low, given the buyer strength in the candle.
📉 Short Position Strategy:
More logical short opportunities exist in other currency pairs like
EURCAD
,
NZDCAD
, and
NZDUSD
. Avoid shorting
USDJPY
for now but consider a low-risk position if the trend line breaks.
🔄 JPY Pair Movements:
One insight I’ve learned recently is using USDJPY resistance breaks to trigger movements in other JPY pairs. For example, if you miss a USDJPY position, consider
GBPJPY
after breaking 201.200 or
NZDJPY
after breaking 97.158.
🔑 Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: 151.896 , 146.336 , 141.633
Resistance Levels: 160.611 , 162.749 , 165.842
😊 If you'd like me to analyze a specific coin or currency pair, be sure to comment so that I can allocate the next analysis for you!
⚠️ Also, please remember that I'm just an analyst, and this isn't financial advice. We're here to stay in the market and maximize profits by adhering to risk and capital management principles.
USDJPY
and review our previous analysis and its outcome, and then explore new entry points together. 🎉 Channel Milestone 700 Followers:
Thank you all for helping this channel reach 700 followers! Our next goal is 1,000 followers. Let's keep growing together!
⚖️ Factors Leading to the Yen's Weakness:
📚 Higher-Than-Expected Inflation in the United States:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. increased more than expected, leading to higher U.S. Treasury yields as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will continue its tight monetary policies. This has strengthened the USD as investors seek higher returns.
🚥 Federal Reserve on Interest Rates:
The Fed indicated in its recent meeting that it expects fewer rate cuts in 2024, predicting only one rate cut. This less-than-expected dovish stance underscores the Fed's commitment to
controlling inflation, boosting the USD.
🏧 Bank of Japan's Monetary Policies:
While the Fed continues its tightening policies, the Bank of Japan maintains its expansionary stance. The BOJ kept its policies unchanged in the recent meeting, with no major changes expected. This divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and Japan has weakened the JPY against the USD.
These factors have collectively increased the USD/JPY exchange rate due to the monetary policy and economic conditions favoring the USD.
📊 Previous Analysis Review:
In our previous analysis, we identified potential future targets using Fibonacci retracement levels, predicting movements if the critical resistance at 151.802 was breached. The Bank of Japan focused heavily on this level. After breaking it, as predicted, we saw the JPY weaken and the USD strengthen.
Chart Analysis
🕒 Monthly Time Frame Analysis:
After about 20 years, we’ve returned to these levels, reaching the multi-year resistance box, signaling a strong bullish trend recently.
Additionally, the RSI on the weekly time frame is at a crucial point. If it breaks 70.12 and enters the overbought zone, we could continue our upward movement, potentially breaking the resistance box. The last time we entered the overbought zone was in March 2022, leading to a strong bullish trend, so it might happen again.
The monthly candle is very strong, indicating buyer strength, with the lower shadow showing that sellers tried to bring the price down, but buyers took control with greater force.
🕛 Weekly Time Frame Analysis:
Contrary to most currency pairs, we see a strong upward movement in the JPY pairs, with the JPY weakening significantly across all JPY pairs.
We also have a parabolic curve line indicating a bullish nature, as each bounce off this line has led to an upward movement. Given the proximity to the resistance box, a potential reaction is likely. After breaking this curve line or confirming the trigger at 151.845, we could enter a mid-term bearish phase.
📅 Daily Time Frame Analysis:
The weekly curve line is clearer and more valid in the daily time frame. Breaking it might indicate the end of the bullish trend, and we could see fluctuations within the 151.845 to 158.607 box.
The daily resistance at 158.607 is from years ago, with only one historical touch, making it less relevant. We focus on recent points of contact and plan positions after breaking it.
The candle sizes are bothersome, suggesting a potential new movement start, similar to how decreasing volume in crypto indicates a new trend. Today's daily candle is strong, potentially offering a position opportunity.
🔄 Future Resistance Levels:
Given the absence of immediate resistances and old data, we consider future spaces based on Fibonacci levels:
If we break 158.451, we face resistance at 160.611, 162.749, and 165.842.
⏰ Four-Hour Time Frame Analysis:
The candle closed above our resistance, allowing us to start moving, whether now or during the U.S. session. Stay alert and ensure you have a position.
📈 Long Position Strategy:
I entered at the one-hour time frame, waiting for targets. Use the four-hour candle to position yourself. The position was opened with a stop loss at the previous low, given the buyer strength in the candle.
📉 Short Position Strategy:
More logical short opportunities exist in other currency pairs like
EURCAD
,
NZDCAD
, and
NZDUSD
. Avoid shorting
USDJPY
for now but consider a low-risk position if the trend line breaks.
🔄 JPY Pair Movements:
One insight I’ve learned recently is using USDJPY resistance breaks to trigger movements in other JPY pairs. For example, if you miss a USDJPY position, consider
GBPJPY
after breaking 201.200 or
NZDJPY
after breaking 97.158.
🔑 Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: 151.896 , 146.336 , 141.633
Resistance Levels: 160.611 , 162.749 , 165.842
😊 If you'd like me to analyze a specific coin or currency pair, be sure to comment so that I can allocate the next analysis for you!
⚠️ Also, please remember that I'm just an analyst, and this isn't financial advice. We're here to stay in the market and maximize profits by adhering to risk and capital management principles.
