Based on the analysis of USDJPY's technical setup, here's a structured trade plan:
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### *USDJPY Short Trade Plan* *Trigger:* Consolidation below 148.90 (e.g., closing below on 4H/daily chart). *Entry:* After confirmed breakdown, ideally with a retest of 148.90 as resistance. *Target:* 147.00 (190-pip downside). *Stop Loss:* 50-70 pips above entry (e.g., 149.40–149.60 to account for volatility). *Risk-Reward Ratio:* ~1:3 to 1:4 (favorable).
3. *Target Validation:* - 147.00 aligns with prior swing lows and Fibonacci extensions (61.8% retracement from recent rally).
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### *Risks to Consider* - *False Breakdown:* Watch for a swift reclaim of 148.90 (stop hunt). - *BoJ Intervention:* Risk of yen-buying intervention if JPY weakens sharply. - *Upcoming Data:* U.S. CPI/Jobs data or BoJ policy shifts could disrupt the setup.
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### *Execution Tips* - Wait for *price confirmation* (e.g., two consecutive closes below 148.90). - Monitor MACD histogram for strengthening bearish momentum. - Hedge with a long JPY basket (e.g., short AUDJPY/GBPJPY) to diversify risk.
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*Final Note:* This trade aligns with bearish technicals, but stay agile given macro risks. Adjust stops if fundamentals shift.
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As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.