USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up

21 de jan.

USD/JPY appears to encounter resistance around 148.80 over the last three days, with fading bets on a Fed rate cut. While bullish sentiments persist, the bulls take a breather, gearing up for potential momentum next week, pending the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy hints.

On the USD front, resilience continues fueled by recovering US yields and positive University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data, providing the Greenback an additional boost. Eyes are on December's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, influencing market bets for upcoming decisions. Despite some easing in dovish expectations this week, the odds of cuts in March and May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, remain at around 50% and 45%, respectively.

USDJPY Technical Analysis:
As discussed in the video, the recent upward momentum is showing signs of easing, leaving room for a possible USD pullback. However, for a confirmed uptrend continuation, we need to see sustained trading above 148.800. Our detailed technical analysis focused on the current bullish market structure, with particular attention to the crucial level of 148.800, set as a pivotal point for the upcoming week. This level gains significance as a potential catalyst for a clear uptrend if buying pressure persists. The market's response to this level at the beginning of the new week will strongly influence the direction of price action in the days ahead.

Join me in exploring potential trading opportunities using trendlines, key levels, and chart patterns. Stay connected to my channel, follow updates, and actively participate in the comment section as we navigate the dynamic USDJPY market together.

Wishing you success as you navigate the USDJPY market this week!
#USDJPY #technicalanalysis #tradingopportunities #inflation #monetarypolicy #Fed #interestrates #economicanalysis #Forextrading

Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.

It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.

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Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.

22 de jan.

Nota

The new trading week kicked off with a sense of uncertainty, as market activities showed a preference to stay within a defined range, highlighting the current indecisiveness. The Japanese Yen saw increased haven flows due to heightened geopolitical tensions, evident in the chart's descending trendline. Expectations of the Bank of Japan maintaining its dovish stance may limit further Yen gains. On the other side, reduced likelihood of aggressive Fed policy changes supports the USD/JPY pair.

Market consensus leans towards the BoJ maintaining negative interest rates and the Yield Curve Control policy during their two-day meeting this week, adding to a positive sentiment in equity markets and weakening the safe-haven appeal of the JPY. Additionally, lower chances of an early Fed interest rate cut could boost the USD, providing support for the USD/JPY pair, particularly when viewed from a technical standpoint with price action above an ascending trendline.

For today's trading activities, our focus will be guided by the newly identified structure on the 1H timeframe, serving as a benchmark amidst the current market dynamics.

Good Morning.

23 de jan.

Trade ativo

After being taken out of the buy position at a loss, a sell position was triggered following the breakdown of the 147.750 support line post the Bank of Japan's rate decision. The BoJ maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, cutting its core inflation forecast. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy, concurrently revising its core inflation forecast for the upcoming fiscal year. In its policy statement, the BoJ unanimously opted to retain interest rates at -0.1% and uphold its yield curve control policy, which sets the upper limit for 10-year Japanese government bond yields at 1.0% as a reference.

After the BoJ governor's speech, the bullish momentum waned as market participants increasingly embraced the notion that the BoJ may exit the negative interest rates regime in March or April. The accompanying policy statement from the Japanese central bank highlighted the gradual rise in the likelihood of achieving the price stability target, reinforcing the expectation of an eventual exit from the negative interest rates regime. This development, in turn, provides some support to the JPY. Given these circumstances, it is essential to safeguard the sell position while remaining alert for potential new trading opportunities. Additionally, it is prudent to keep the possibility of a potential retest of structure open.

Good Morning.

23 de jan.

Trade fechado manualmente

Sell position is closed as we anticipate re-entry; levels identified on the 1H timeframe continue to guide our trading decision today.

24 de jan.

Nota

The Japanese Yen saw a boost from the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance on Tuesday, although this momentum failed to sustain. Governor Kazuo Ueda's signal of determination to achieve the 2% inflation target suggested that the conditions for scaling back substantial stimulus and lifting short-term interest rates out of negative territory were aligning. This, combined with geopolitical risks in the Middle East and concerns about China's economic slowdown have emerged as significant factors supporting the Yen. On the other hand, the diminished expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve have provided a lift to the USD and the USD/JPY pair.

It's important to note that market participants may exercise caution in making aggressive directional bets ahead of this week's crucial US macro data, starting with the S & P Global publications later today. In light of this, we will remain watchful, using the identified levels and ascending trendline to guide our trading activities today.

Good Morning

24 de jan.

Trade ativo

Following our live session this morning; find below the update as the sell position triggers at the breakdown of the 147.750

24 de jan.

Trade ativo

Protect sell positions as buying pressure resumes following an impressive publication from S & P Global.

25 de jan.

Trade ativo

A sell re-entry has been triggered as The Japanese Yen recorded strong gains on Wednesday and strengthened to over a one-week high against its American counterpart in the wake of the Bank of Japan's hawkish remark. Market sentiment remains positive following the People's Bank of China's monetary stimulus measures, contributing to a buoyant mood in global equity markets. However, the widening US-Japan rate differential may weaken the Yen and support the USD/JPY pair. The Bank of Japan's indication of phasing out stimulus and negative interest rates, coupled with uncertainty surrounding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, could curb significant appreciation for the USD/JPY pair. Consequently, we will continue to rely on chart levels to inform our trading decisions today.

Good Morning.

25 de jan.

Trade ativo

Secure the sell position

25 de jan.

Trade ativo

#USDJPY

UPDATE

26 de jan.

Trade ativo

The sell position triggered yesterday remains active as the Japanese Yen consolidates against the USD amid mixed fundamental cues. Despite a softer Tokyo Core CPI and a positive risk tone weighing on the Yen, subdued USD price action prevails ahead of the US PCE data. Given the current market structure, it's evident that market participants are choosing to await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. This US inflation data could offer clarity on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates, subsequently influencing US Dollar price dynamics and providing a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair.

In light of this, we will continue to rely on the levels indicated on the chart as a guiding light for today's trading activities.

Happy Friday!