Forex Universe Update Before FOMC - 7/26/2016
Central bank circus is back in the town and it will bring usual attractions. Whipsaw all around with counter intuitive currency canter. If you chase the price action then you will always be surprised ( often in a bad way ) and market will keep you guessing. Media outlet will keep on pouring the information which 'makes sense' but has little trading value !
Everything we are long has sudden pop today and we are not surprised. Why? Because such trades were planned and not a random shot from the hip. Here is what we think about our current positions and this is what we would like to do during / after FOMC outcome.
EUR/USD - Like to keep shorting it until 1.1250 gives up and it stays above. Brining the stops closer so that profit doesn't evaporate during silly price action but will short again based on how FOMC goes.
GBP/USD - As we mentioned earlier that the pound won't be able to settle below 1.30 comfortably without explicit help from BOE. Yes service PMI was weak but such skewed data pointes are expected for next couple of months and then business will be as usual. Pressure is always there but buying the dip is the way to go. Preferably as close as possible to 1.30 or sub 1.30 dips until BOE cuts and give us exact stimulus size.
AUD/USD & NZD/USD - There is no point in repeating the same stuff from previous post here. ( please check the link ) In short, buy the dip because they are the start performer in this yield-less world.
USD/JPY - Aha, the talk of the town de jour. As shown here ( link below ) we got long at 104 and now it's about 60 pips up so would grab those pips and strategy is to get long until something changes substantially.
Now over to Fed. Let's see how they guide ( translation - confuse ) us ;)
Everything we are long has sudden pop today and we are not surprised. Why? Because such trades were planned and not a random shot from the hip. Here is what we think about our current positions and this is what we would like to do during / after FOMC outcome.
EUR/USD - Like to keep shorting it until 1.1250 gives up and it stays above. Brining the stops closer so that profit doesn't evaporate during silly price action but will short again based on how FOMC goes.
GBP/USD - As we mentioned earlier that the pound won't be able to settle below 1.30 comfortably without explicit help from BOE. Yes service PMI was weak but such skewed data pointes are expected for next couple of months and then business will be as usual. Pressure is always there but buying the dip is the way to go. Preferably as close as possible to 1.30 or sub 1.30 dips until BOE cuts and give us exact stimulus size.
AUD/USD & NZD/USD - There is no point in repeating the same stuff from previous post here. ( please check the link ) In short, buy the dip because they are the start performer in this yield-less world.
USD/JPY - Aha, the talk of the town de jour. As shown here ( link below ) we got long at 104 and now it's about 60 pips up so would grab those pips and strategy is to get long until something changes substantially.
Now over to Fed. Let's see how they guide ( translation - confuse ) us ;)
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