USD/JPY not participating in the USD pullback
DXY has put in a noticeable pullback so far to start the week, and that move stands out with the retracement in EUR/USD and the bounce so far in GBP/USD. Notably, however, the USD isn't weak everywhere, as USD/JPY has held support at prior resistance, so far.
This similarly directs attention to tomorrow's CPI print but I think what's important in USD/JPY is the 160 level, which only traded briefly last year before the July 11th reversal. That reversal came from a combination of both weak US CPI and a BoJ intervention that sent the carry trade spiraling lower.
More recently, with 10-year US Treasury yields perking up, there's been motive for carry trades to continue and this is one possible reason for the divergence between USD/JPY and DXY, so far this week.
For now, USD/JPY price action remains bullish as we've seen a hold of higher-low support at prior resistance. But if bears can take that zone out, from the 76.4 to 78.6 Fibonacci retracements of the July-September pullback, that view can change quickly. - js
This similarly directs attention to tomorrow's CPI print but I think what's important in USD/JPY is the 160 level, which only traded briefly last year before the July 11th reversal. That reversal came from a combination of both weak US CPI and a BoJ intervention that sent the carry trade spiraling lower.
More recently, with 10-year US Treasury yields perking up, there's been motive for carry trades to continue and this is one possible reason for the divergence between USD/JPY and DXY, so far this week.
For now, USD/JPY price action remains bullish as we've seen a hold of higher-low support at prior resistance. But if bears can take that zone out, from the 76.4 to 78.6 Fibonacci retracements of the July-September pullback, that view can change quickly. - js
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