India failure, Tesla-Apple split, dollar's worst August

1 de set. de 2020

India can be considered the main anti-hero of yesterday in the world. On the one hand, it is clearly going to become the first in the world in terms of the number of cases of coronavirus, in any case, there is every chance to take second place, if not this week, then the next, because the number of new cases per day has reached 80K. On the other hand, India's GDP data for the second quarter showed the worst results in the last 8 years. Analysts had expected a fall in GDP of -18.3% against a rise of 3.1% in the first quarter. In fact, the decline was 23.9%. The figure is so terrible in itself that it needs no further comment.

Also, analysts expect India's GDP to fall in the third (8.1%) and fourth (1%) quarters. That is, a recession in the Indian economy is inevitable, and a quick recovery in the foreseeable future is unlikely.

India is the fifth largest economy in the world, which, moreover, had the highest growth rates during the latest years and, in fact, dragged on itself the world economy as a whole. So, the news is extremely negative.

As for other events, for the US stock market these are, perhaps, splits of Apple (4 to 1) and Tesla (5 to 1) shares. Considering that the rise in prices for the shares of both companies is largely related to the hype, it is quite logical that after this high PRed move the shares showed growth. However, it in no way negates the fact that Apple is completely overbought and the Tesla has created a big price bubble.

As for the results of August for the FOREX, we note that it has become the worst August for the dollar over the past 5 years. Nevertheless, the Dollar Index, despite all the fundamental negativity around itself, has come close to the rebound point, so it is too early to write it off completely.