Chinas fight against Capital Outflows
Atualizado
China is fighting aggressively now against capital outflows.
If ever China fails it needs to devalue the Yuan.
This might couse another global market turmoil later this year or 2018.
If ever China fails it needs to devalue the Yuan.
This might couse another global market turmoil later this year or 2018.
Nota
Last 2 days offshore Yuan surged the most on record. The overnight deposit rate in Hongkong rose as high as a record 100 percent last night.But: The recent capital controls will not work on the long run.
China can´t stop it´s captial outflows. The agressive steps in the last 48 hours should flag that China is getting control back about about Yuan Cross Border Payments. But probably it is showing more that China Foreign Exchanges Reserves are much lower than the PBOC is reporting with 3.050 B US-Dollar. China can not defend the Yuan for a longer time and will be forced to devaluate the Yuan sooner or later again.
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China can´t controll it´s capital outflows:930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_313a1c4a702a48338a5ac8452d284796.png
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China can´t control it´s capital outflows: China’s foreign exchange reserves fell for a sixth straight month in December. The numbers are above expectations but the resevers are falling every month. China need to devalue the Yuan sooner or later becaus China is running out of US-Dollar.
Quote:
China forex reserves fall, but less than expected
:30 pm, January 07, 2017
Reuters BEIJING (Reuters) — China’s foreign exchange reserves fell for a sixth straight month in December but by less than expected to the lowest since February 2011, as authorities stepped in to support the yuan ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Reserves fell by $41 billion last month to $3.011 trillion, central bank data showed on Saturday, following a drop of $69.06 billion in November.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected reserves to drop $51 billion to $3.001 trillion, from $3.052 trillion at the end of November.
the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003446041
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Quote:China Dec forex reserves fall less than expected to $3.011 trillion
China's foreign exchange reserves fell for a sixth straight month in December but by less than expected to the lowest since February 2011, as authorities stepped in to support the yuan ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration.
China's reserves shrank by $41 billion in December, slightly less than feared but the sixth straight month of declines, data showed on Saturday, after a week in which Beijing moved aggressively to punish those betting against the currency and make it harder for money to get out of the country.
Analysts had forecast a drop of $51 billion.
For the year as a whole, China's reserves fell nearly $320 billion to $3.011 trillion, on top of a record drop of $513 billion in 2015.
While the $3 trillion mark is not seen as a firm "line in the sand" for Beijing, concerns are swirling in global financial markets over the speed with which the country is depleting its ammunition to defend the currency and staunch capital outflows.
Some analysts estimate it needs to retain a minimum of $2.6 trillion to $2.8 trillion under the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) adequacy measures.
If pressure on the yuan persists, analysts suspect China will continue to tighten the screws on outflows via administrative and regulatory means, while pouncing sporadically on short sellers in forex markets to discourage them from building up excessive bets against the currency.
But if it continues to burn through reserves at a rapid rate, some strategists believe China's leaders may have little choice but to sanction another big "one-off" devaluation like that in 2015, which would likely roil global financial markets and stoke tensions with the new Trump administration.
The yuan depreciated 6.6 percent against the surging dollar in 2016, its biggest one-year loss since 1994, and is expected to weaken further this year if the dollar's rally has legs.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/01/06/china-foreign-exchange-reserves-fall-in-december-to-lowest-since-february-2011.html
Nota
Todays Chinas aggressives steps are showing, that the rise of the bitcoin above 1.000 US-Dollar was directely linked to China tremendous capital outflows.If ever BCTUSD wil rise again above the Jauary highs than Chinas curriency is close to the next devaluation. China will give us some month time now to focus on higher stockmarket prices. Later this year this issue might bring stockmarkets under huge pressure.
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.Quote:
Business News | Wed Jan 11, 2017 | 8:58am EST
Bitcoin slides as China's central bank launches checks on exchanges
By John Ruwitch and Jemima Kelly | SHANGHAI/LONDON
China's central bank launched spot checks on leading bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai, ratcheting up pressure on potential capital outflows and knocking the price of the cryptocurrency down more than 12 percent against the dollar.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said its probe of bitcoin exchanges BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin was to look into a range of possible rule violations, including market manipulation, money laundering and unauthorized financing. It did not say if any violations had been found.
Chinese authorities have stepped up efforts to stem capital outflows and relieve pressure on the yuan.
While the yuan lost more than 6.5 percent against the dollar last year, its worst performance since 1994, the bitcoin price has soared to near-record highs.
That, and the relative anonymity the digital currency affords, has prompted some to believe bitcoin has become an attractive option for tech-savvy Chinese to hedge against the yuan and skirt around rules limiting how much foreign exchange individuals can buy each year.
Source: reuters.com/article/us-china-bitcoin-idUSKBN14V15Q
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Quote:Capital curbs push Chinese firms to risky, costly dollar bonds
By Samuel Shen and John Ruwitch
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's efforts to support its currency and cool its hot property market are encouraging more Chinese companies, including many state firms, to take on extra cost and risk by raising foreign-currency bonds in Hong Kong and other offshore locations.
Despite the yuan's nearly 7 percent slump against the dollar in 2016, Chinese companies including state-owned Bank of China (SS:601988) raised a record $111 billion in offshore dollar bonds, according to data from Dealogic, up from $88 billion in 2015.
JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analysts, using their own dataset, are forecasting another rise this year, even though many economists expect the yuan to fall further, making the loans more expensive to service and repay.
The list includes issuers who need dollars to pay for overseas acquisitions and deals but are unable to use their yuan after China tightened its grip on capital outflows last year to support the currency.
"It's getting increasingly difficult to move money out," said Shen Weizheng, fund manager at Ivy Capital, which invests in stocks and bonds in Hong Kong. "So for Chinese companies eager to invest overseas, the dollar bond market becomes an easier funding avenue."
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/capital-curbs-push-chinese-firms-to-risky,-costly-dollar-bonds-453774
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Jan 25, 2017China central bank official defends rapid foreign reserves use to keep yuan steady
© Reuters. China central bank official defends rapid foreign reserves use to keep yuan steady © Reuters. China central bank official defends rapid foreign reserves use to keep yuan steady
BEIJING (Reuters) - A senior official at China's central bank has defended authorities' rapid use of foreign exchange reserves to keep the yuan currency stable, saying the benefits "outweighed the drawbacks", according to a state newspaper. "The use of foreign reserves has kept the yuan stable and prevented market overshooting," the Ren Min Zheng Xie Bao. Paper quoted Yi Gang, a vice governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), as saying. The paper is owned by political advisory body the China's People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), of which Yi is a member. The yuan fell 6.6 percent against the dollar last year, its biggest loss since 1994, under pressure from sluggish economic growth and a strong dollar, which have spurred capital outflows.
China has spent $1 trillion in foreign reserves in the past two years as it tried to stabilize the faltering currency, the newspaper said. China's foreign reserves shrank to near six-year lows in December, but held just above the critical $3 trillion level, sparking speculation over how long authorities would be able to continue defending the currency. The government has turned to other administrative and regulatory measures in recent weeks to curb outflows and clamp down on speculation. Quote: investing.com/news/economy-news/china-central-bank-official-defends-rapid-foreign-reserves-use-to-keep-yuan-steady-455502
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Feb. 07 2017China Jan FX reserves fall more than expected to $2.998 trillion, near 6-year Löw
China's foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly fell below the closely watched $3 trillion level in January for the first time in nearly six years, even as authorities tried to curb outflows by tightening capital controls.
Reserves fell by $12.3 billion in January to $2.998 trillion, compared with a drop of $41 billion drop in December. Economics polled by Reuters had forecast forex reserves would fall by about $10.5 billion to $3 trillion. While the $3 trillion mark is not seen as a firm "line in the sand" for Beijing, concerns are swirling in global financial markets over the speed at which the country is depleting its ammunition to defend the currency and staunch capital outflows. Some analysts fear a heavy and sustained drain on reserves could prompt Beijing to devalue the currency. The yuan fell 6.6 percent against the rising dollar in 2016, its biggest annual drop since 1994.
For 2016 as a whole, China burned through nearly $320 billion of reserves, on top of a record drop of $513 billion in 2015. The yuan has found some respite in recent weeks as the dollar retreated, helped also by recent steps to curb capital outflows.
But analysts expect downward pressure on the yuan to resume, especially if the U.S. continues to raise interest rates, which would likely trigger fresh capital outflows from emerging economies such as China and test its enhanced capital controls. China's gold reserves rose to $71.292 billion at the end of January, from $67.878 billion at end-December, data published on the People's Bank of China website showed. Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/07/china-jan-fx-reserves-fall-more-than-expected-to-2998-trillion-near-6-year-low.html
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FEB 08 2017 China forex reserves fall below $3 trillion, 1st time in 6 yearsREUTERS
February 8, 2017 at 12:30 JST
BEIJING--China's foreign exchange reserves unexpectedly fell below the closely watched $3 trillion (336 trillion yen) level in January for the first time in nearly six years, though tighter regulatory controls appeared to making some progress in slowing capital outflows. China has taken a raft of steps in recent months to make it harder to move money out of the country and to reassert a grip on its faltering currency, even as U.S. President Donald Trump steps up accusations that Beijing is keeping the yuan too cheap. Reserves fell $12.3 billion in January to $2.998 trillion, more than the $10.5 billion that economists polled by Reuters had expected. While the $3 trillion mark is not seen as a firm "line in the sand" for Beijing, concerns are swirling over the speed at which the country is depleting its ammunition, sowing doubts over how much longer authorities can afford to defend both the currency and its reserves. Source: asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201702080019.html
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FEB 20 2017: BTCUSD Cup with Handle Pattern likely invst.ly/3b1saNota
FEB 21 2017: How one Chinese region shows risks of relying on heavy borrowinginvesting.com/news/stock-market-news/how-one-chinese-region-shows-risks-of-relying-on-heavy-borrowing-461325
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FEB 21 2017: Chinese deals stall on capital outflows clampdowntheaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/chinese-deals-stall-on-capital-outflows-clampdown/news-story/0aeed311b89b4839b7c477d1bb7eda0f
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MAR 01 2017: Bitcoin and USDCNH sending next alarm signal. Any US rate hike could trigger a further divaluation of Chinas Currency.Nota
MAR 02 2017: BTC & USDCNH today sending another alarm signal. In 2016 same happened as well before possible rate hikes.Nota
MAR 04 2017: Yuan, rupee outlook sours on Fed interest rate hike bets: Reuters pollQuote: The Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee are expected to weaken, although less than previously thought, reversing recent gains as rising chances of a U.S. interest rate hike this month boost the dollar, a Reuters poll found.Since the start of the year, most Asian currencies have risen against the dollar, as uncertainty about President Donald Trump's economic policies hurt the greenback.Fed officials over the past few days suggested that rates need to go up sooner rather than later to avoid falling behind the curve on inflation in the face of proposed economic stimulus from Trump's administration.
The view for a weaker yuan also stands alongside Trump's accusations that Beijing has devalued its currency to gain a trade advantage and as China struggles to stem capital outflows depleting its FX reserves. Source: in.reuters.com/article/forex-poll-asia-idINKBN16912A
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MAR 04 2017: Quote: A separate Reuters poll confirmed trader sentiment toward most emerging Asian currencies worsened, with bets on the Chinese yuan turning slightly bearish, although positioning was still close to being neutral.Nota
CHINA: Growth Target cut to 6,5%money.cnn.com/2017/03/04/news/economy/china-gdp-growth-target/index.html
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CHINA: Growth Target cut to 6,5%theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/22/greek-debt-eu-imf-angela-merkel-christine-lagarde-austerity
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CHINA: Growth Target cut to 6,5%cnbc.com/2017/03/04/china-sets-2017-economic-growth-target.html
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MAR 16 2017: PBOC raises short-term rates third times in three month.Nota
Bitcoin marches towards all-time high as SEC gives potential second shot to Winklevoss ETFcnbc.com/2017/04/26/bitcoin-price-sec-winklevoss-etf-review.html
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Bitcoin jumps to a new all-time high above $1,300, capping 20% April surgecnbc.com/2017/04/27/bitcoin-jumps-to-a-new-all-time-high-above-1300-capping-20-april-surge.html
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China finance minister skips summit with Japan, Korea to attend emergency meetinginvesting.com/news/economy-news/japan,-china,-south-korea-pledge-to-resist-protectionism-480405
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As China's battle with leverage begins to bite, risk bites backinvesting.com/news/economy-news/as-china's-battle-with-leverage-begins-to-bite,-risk-bites-back-481427
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Yuan devaluation is going to accelerate now:Nota
Beijing's crackdown on risky debt is throwing Chinese investors for a loopcnbc.com/2017/05/08/china-beijing-crackdown-on-debt-spooks-investors.html
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As China's banks swap corporates for retail borrowers, risks riseinvesting.com/news/economy-news/as-china's-banks-swap-corporates-for-retail-borrowers,-risks-rise-482136
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China has now become the biggest fear for marketscnbc.com/2017/05/08/china-has-now-become-the-biggest-fear-for-markets.html
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China’s debt surpasses 300 percent of GDP, IIF says, raising doubts over Yellen’s crisis remarks cnbc.com/2017/06/28/chinas-debt-surpasses-300-percent-of-gdp-iif-says-raising-doubts-over-yellens-crisis-remarks.html
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Zeitpunkt unklar:.
China is pumping a lot of cash into its economy to calm investors
China injected nearly $130 billion into its market in the last two weeks to quell a bond rout
The People's Bank of China is seeking to balance market sentiment with its need to crackdown on debt
Rapidly expanding liquidity could make it more challenging for Beijing to counteract capital flight — its relatively static foreign exchange reserves are growing less potent when compared to the amount of cash that could be leaving the country cnbc.com/2017/11/22/china-cash-injections-to-quell-bond-rout-liquidity-debt-fx-reserves.html
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After Sudden Rout, China Stock Traders Question Beijing Put investing.com/news/stock-market-news/after-sudden-rout-china-stock-traders-question-beijing-put-1-906862
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Forex - PBOC Sets Yuan Parity At 6.5810 Against Dollar, Strongest Since Oct. 12investing.com/news/forex-news/forex--pboc-sets-yuan-parity-at-65810-against-dollar-strongest-since-oct-12-907022
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Asian indexes trade mixed as China markets look to bounce backAsian shares were mostly lower on Friday
Chinese shares staged a recovery after mainland indexes tumbled almost 3 percent in the last session
Mitsubishi Materials lost more than 9 percent after the company said some of its units had falsified product data
The overnight trading session was quiet, with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday
cnbc.com/2017/11/23/asia-markets-china-stocks--dollar-euro-in-focus.html
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