USDCHF - the risk vs reward trade off this week
Put USDCHF on the radar - while there are many different ways this could play out this week, here are 2 clear scenario's that are front of mind.
Upside - the fed's 2024 dot moves higher in tomorrows FOMC meeting to show 2 cuts (from 3). We could also see the SNB cut rates - this is a non-consensus call with 4/24 economists calling for a 25bp cut (to 1.5%) and the Swiss swaps market pricing this outcome with 30% chance
Downside to price - the Fed leave the 2024 dot unchanged at 3 cuts, and we see 2024 GDP median estimate upgraded to 1.8% (from 1.4%), and the SNB leave rates unchanged
Risk vs reward - If the upside scenario plays out then price will likely have a far bigger move to the upside, than potential downside if scenario 2 plays out.
The daily chart looks ominously poised to breakout - momentum and trend traders will be watching to see if this triggers a move that has some duration.
Upside - the fed's 2024 dot moves higher in tomorrows FOMC meeting to show 2 cuts (from 3). We could also see the SNB cut rates - this is a non-consensus call with 4/24 economists calling for a 25bp cut (to 1.5%) and the Swiss swaps market pricing this outcome with 30% chance
Downside to price - the Fed leave the 2024 dot unchanged at 3 cuts, and we see 2024 GDP median estimate upgraded to 1.8% (from 1.4%), and the SNB leave rates unchanged
Risk vs reward - If the upside scenario plays out then price will likely have a far bigger move to the upside, than potential downside if scenario 2 plays out.
The daily chart looks ominously poised to breakout - momentum and trend traders will be watching to see if this triggers a move that has some duration.
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