USD/CAD plunges amid solid Canadian data release
As apparent on the chart, bears were dominating the market during the past 24 hours. The rate was testing the weekly R2 and the upper barrier of its five-week range circa 1.29 prior to falling down to the 55-hour SMA.
Even though the pair tried to edge higher, solid Canadian GDP and unemployment data at 1330GMT sent the pair for a 78-pip plunge within the first minute after the release. The pair dashed through the 100-hour SMA and the monthly PP, but was nevertheless stopped by the 200-hour SMA at 1.2780.
By and large, it is expected that the US Dollar tries to recover some of its lost positions within the remaining hours of this session and even on Monday. The 1.2825 area could provide some resistance for the pair, but, if breached, a more probable upside target is the 55-hour SMA.
Even though the pair tried to edge higher, solid Canadian GDP and unemployment data at 1330GMT sent the pair for a 78-pip plunge within the first minute after the release. The pair dashed through the 100-hour SMA and the monthly PP, but was nevertheless stopped by the 200-hour SMA at 1.2780.
By and large, it is expected that the US Dollar tries to recover some of its lost positions within the remaining hours of this session and even on Monday. The 1.2825 area could provide some resistance for the pair, but, if breached, a more probable upside target is the 55-hour SMA.
Comentário:
Even though the US Dollar tried to recover some of its lost positions against the Loonie during the second part of Monday, bears continued to push the pair lower. As a result, it breached the bottom line of a six-week range located at 1.2667.
The Canadian data release mid-session put an upward pressure on the Loonie, thus pushing the rate below the weekly S1. Technical oscillators are located at or near the oversold area.
This suggests that upside risks could dominate the market during the following hours or even beyond. The nearest resistance is provided by the 55-hour SMA at 1.2707.
In case the Greenback continues to trade lower, this bearish momentum is likely to be stopped by the weekly S1 and the monthly S2 at 1.2606 and 1.2580, accordingly.
Even though the US Dollar tried to recover some of its lost positions against the Loonie during the second part of Monday, bears continued to push the pair lower. As a result, it breached the bottom line of a six-week range located at 1.2667.
The Canadian data release mid-session put an upward pressure on the Loonie, thus pushing the rate below the weekly S1. Technical oscillators are located at or near the oversold area.
This suggests that upside risks could dominate the market during the following hours or even beyond. The nearest resistance is provided by the 55-hour SMA at 1.2707.
In case the Greenback continues to trade lower, this bearish momentum is likely to be stopped by the weekly S1 and the monthly S2 at 1.2606 and 1.2580, accordingly.
Comentário:
USD/CAD remained stable during the previous session, as the pair was fluctuating between the 1.2700 and 1.2640 marks. The US Dollar breached its six-week trend-line for a brief period of time prior to returning in the range and testing this November low one more time.
The pair hindering near this line suggests that the US Dollar might be ready to breach its confinement for good. This is likely to set the rate for a decline during this week or even beyond.
By and large, the general direction of the pair in this session is expected to be north towards the combined resistance of the weekly PP, the 100– and 55-hour SMAs circa 1.2755.
On the other hand, the Greenback should fail to move below the weekly S1 at 1.2606.
USD/CAD remained stable during the previous session, as the pair was fluctuating between the 1.2700 and 1.2640 marks. The US Dollar breached its six-week trend-line for a brief period of time prior to returning in the range and testing this November low one more time.
The pair hindering near this line suggests that the US Dollar might be ready to breach its confinement for good. This is likely to set the rate for a decline during this week or even beyond.
By and large, the general direction of the pair in this session is expected to be north towards the combined resistance of the weekly PP, the 100– and 55-hour SMAs circa 1.2755.
On the other hand, the Greenback should fail to move below the weekly S1 at 1.2606.
Comentário:
The pair’s movement during the first half of Wednesday was guided by the 55-hour SMA, as the rate was fluctuating around this line for several hours.
The given situation changed sharply at 1500GMT after the release of the BOC Rate Statement. The bank’s cautious stance towards a possible rate hike early in 2018 weakened the Canadian Dollar, thus allowing its American counterpart to surge 100 pips within one hour after the release. Its upward movement did not stop there, as the pair had managed to reach the monthly PP and the weekly R1 near 1.2830 by mid-today.
The most likely scenario favours a reversal from the 1.2860 area and a subsequent decline. The rate might be stopped somewhere circa 1.2750 due to a high concentration of support levels in this area.
The pair’s movement during the first half of Wednesday was guided by the 55-hour SMA, as the rate was fluctuating around this line for several hours.
The given situation changed sharply at 1500GMT after the release of the BOC Rate Statement. The bank’s cautious stance towards a possible rate hike early in 2018 weakened the Canadian Dollar, thus allowing its American counterpart to surge 100 pips within one hour after the release. Its upward movement did not stop there, as the pair had managed to reach the monthly PP and the weekly R1 near 1.2830 by mid-today.
The most likely scenario favours a reversal from the 1.2860 area and a subsequent decline. The rate might be stopped somewhere circa 1.2750 due to a high concentration of support levels in this area.
Comentário:
The US Dollar remained relatively stable against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, as the pair was fluctuating around the 1.2845 mark. The US labour data released mid-session added some bearish sentiment in the market, but the pair nevertheless failed to move below the 55-day SMA at 1.2807.
Technical indicators suggest that it could still appreciate during the following session. A possible increase in price is likewise apparent on the chart, as the five-month high of 1.2907 has not yet been reached. This area could then be se as the most probable upside target.
On the other hand, a breakout of the 55-hour SMA would not send the pair far south, given that the 200– and 100-hour SMAs, the weekly PP and the monthly S1 are located nearby.
The US Dollar remained relatively stable against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, as the pair was fluctuating around the 1.2845 mark. The US labour data released mid-session added some bearish sentiment in the market, but the pair nevertheless failed to move below the 55-day SMA at 1.2807.
Technical indicators suggest that it could still appreciate during the following session. A possible increase in price is likewise apparent on the chart, as the five-month high of 1.2907 has not yet been reached. This area could then be se as the most probable upside target.
On the other hand, a breakout of the 55-hour SMA would not send the pair far south, given that the 200– and 100-hour SMAs, the weekly PP and the monthly S1 are located nearby.
The massive plunge which was caused by the Canadian GDP and employment data releases mid-Friday was followed by a subsequent movement downwards.
The Greenback dashed through the monthly S1 at 1.2736 and fell down to the November low at 1.2666. This monthly resistance is likely to delay or even halt the pair from further decline, as the 1.2666/1.2907 has managed to confine the pair already since October 24.
Even though technical indicators flash mixed signals, their positioning points to a possible recovery either up to the monthly S1 or the 200-hour SMA at 1.2737 and 1.2771, respectively.
In case this expected movement north does not occur, the US Dollar might still push for the weekly S1 at 1.2630 and even lower during this week.