NASDAQ 100 Continuation or Pull back?

NASDAQ 100 (US-100) – Multi-Timeframe Technical Breakdown

Weekly Timeframe
• Rising Parallel Channel: Price has trended upward within a channel since October 2022. Currently, it’s trading just below the channel’s mid-line but remains above the lower boundary near 19,800–20,000.
• Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The weekly structure is still bullish; no major breaks of structure to the downside. The most recent high around 22,100 stands, and the market could be forming its next higher low.
• Key Support Levels:
• Weekly Order Block @ ~19,000
• Horizontal Supports @ 16,600 & 14,000 (only relevant if a deeper correction unfolds)
• Moving Averages & Ichimoku:
• SMAs are sloping upward with healthy spacing.
• Price remains above the Ichimoku cloud, and the lagging span is above price, signaling a longer-term bullish trend.
• Momentum & Volatility:
• RSI @ ~57 (bullish zone, no overbought signals).
• MACD is above zero but histogram is red, indicating waning momentum, not a reversal.
• ATR > 20 EMA, reflecting heightened volatility.

Weekly Conclusion: While short-term momentum shows signs of fatigue, the broader uptrend remains intact. Key support converges around 19,800–20,000 if a deeper pullback occurs.

Daily Timeframe
• Market Structure & Order Blocks:
• Bullish OBs around 21,100–21,150 (currently under test) and 20,700–20,750 (aligned with the 100 SMA).
• A bearish OB near 21,700; a firm break above would reassert a bullish continuation.
• Ichimoku & SMAs:
• Price is inside the Ichimoku cloud (indecisive), with the lagging span dipping below price, hinting at short-term caution.
• Below the 50 SMA but hovering near the 100 SMA.
• Momentum:
• RSI ~48, under its midline—slightly bearish bias.
• MACD shows a recent bearish crossover, histogram under zero.
• ATR remains elevated, reflecting above-average volatility.

Daily Conclusion: The index is in a holding pattern between 21,700 overhead resistance and critical support around 20,700–21,100. A decisive break of either boundary could set the stage for the next trend move.

Intraday (4H & Below)
• 4H Structure:
• Short-term downtrend confirmed by lower lows, lower highs.
• Price sits below the 200 SMA, with 20 EMA also declining below the 50 SMA.
• Potential upside retracement toward 21,500–21,550 (liquidity zone and bearish OB) before the market decides its next move.
• 2H & 30m Observations:
• Bullish OBs were broken on the way down, reinforcing short-term bearish bias.
• If price reclaims 21,550–21,700, it might signal a bullish shift; otherwise, watch for selling pressure to resume.

Intraday Conclusion: While minor bounces are likely, the path of least resistance remains downward on lower timeframes unless price can reclaim key overhead levels.

Overall Bias & Key Levels
1. Long-Term (Weekly): Bullish structure remains, but momentum has cooled.
2. Mid-Term (Daily): Neutral/indecisive; price needs to either break above 21,700 or below 20,700 for a clearer directional cue.
3. Short-Term (Intraday): Bearish bias unless price convincingly pushes above ~21,550–21,700.

Crucial Support Zone:
• 20,700–21,100 – A break here on a daily closing basis could accelerate downside toward 19,800–20,000.

Potential Scenarios
• Bullish Continuation:
• Price stabilizes above 21,100 and breaks above 21,700.
• Could reignite the weekly uptrend and target new highs above 22,100.
• Bearish Breakdown:
• A firm close below ~20,700 signals deeper correction risk.
• Targets align near the weekly channel support around 19,800–20,000.

Trade & Risk Management Notes
• Short-Term Traders: May consider fading rallies into the 21,500–21,700 zone unless a solid breakout occurs.
• Swing/Position Traders: Watch for potential long entries on a strong bounce from 20,700–21,100 or around 19,800–20,000 if a bigger pullback emerges.
• Volatility: Elevated ATR readings advise caution with position sizing and stop placement.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately.

Feel free to leave a comment or hit “Like” if you find this breakdown helpful. Good luck and trade safe!