Probably A Little Extended
Upstart originated 2.8B in loans this most recent quarter. The current valuation assumes annual originations of well over 120B annually.
If you own Upstart, you are assuming traditional banks willingly cede loan originations to this company, and that Upstart originates ~18% of ALL PERSONAL AND AUTO loans annually. Both of the above are outrageous assumptions.
Also, from a technical standpoint, this thing is as overbought as they get.
Tough to short via puts, and man is there risk in short shares, but the bat seems REALLY high on this setup.
If you own Upstart, you are assuming traditional banks willingly cede loan originations to this company, and that Upstart originates ~18% of ALL PERSONAL AND AUTO loans annually. Both of the above are outrageous assumptions.
Also, from a technical standpoint, this thing is as overbought as they get.
Tough to short via puts, and man is there risk in short shares, but the bat seems REALLY high on this setup.
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