Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) Analysis

9 de set.

1M Chart (Monthly):

• Head and Shoulders: A potential bearish Head and Shoulders pattern is visible. The left shoulder forms near $94, the head at $110.59, and the right shoulder around $90.15.
• Fibonacci Retracement:
• 0.764 level at $94.40.
• 0.618 level at $84.39.
• 0.382 level at $68.20.
• Critical support lies near $58.19 (0.236 Fibonacci).
• RSI: Around 59.28, indicating a slightly bullish to neutral trend.
• MACD: Bearish momentum is building, suggesting a potential downside.
• Key Observation: A break below the $71.92 support level could confirm the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, with a potential target towards $42 USD (projected target from the pattern breakdown).

1W Chart (Weekly):

• Fibonacci Levels: The key support levels on the weekly chart:
• Resistance:
• $110.19 (0.764).
• $97.18 (0.5 Fibonacci).
• Support:
• $84.16 (0.236 Fibonacci).
• $72.52 is a critical level as it’s the immediate support zone.
• RSI: Around 43.09, entering bearish territory.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Bearish, suggesting continued selling pressure.
• Key Observation: The weekly chart suggests a strong downward momentum. If $72.52 breaks, Brent could head to $58 USD (0.236 Fibonacci on monthly).

1D Chart (Daily):

• Price Action: Brent Crude is facing immediate resistance at $86.30 USD (0.764 Fibonacci), with support at $81.57 USD and $71.92 USD.
• RSI: At 37.86, indicating the asset is approaching oversold conditions.
• MACD: Bearish momentum continues to dominate, with further downside pressure expected.
• Stochastic Oscillator: Bearish crossover suggests potential further downside in the near term.
• Key Observation: There is a target towards $71.92, with additional downside possible if it breaks below this level.

4H Chart (4-Hour):

• Price Action: Brent is testing support at $71.10, with immediate resistance at $81.31 USD (0.764 Fibonacci retracement).
• RSI: At 29.00, signaling that the asset is highly oversold in the short term.
• MACD: Shows bearish momentum, but a possible reversal could occur due to the oversold conditions.
• Key Observation: The price is at a crucial support level. A bounce from $71.10 USD is possible, but if it breaks below this, it may head toward the next support zone around $67 USD.

1H Chart (Hourly):

• Price Action: Brent is currently facing resistance near $80.10 USD (0.236 Fibonacci) and is sitting near support at $71.40 USD.
• RSI: At 30.43, showing that Brent is oversold.
• MACD: Bearish momentum continues, but potential for a bounce from oversold conditions.
• Key Observation: The hourly chart shows oversold conditions, and a potential short-term bounce from the $71.40 USD support zone is possible.

30-Min Chart:

• Bearish Pennant: A bearish pennant pattern is forming, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend with a target toward $70.70 USD.
• RSI: At 38.42, indicating ongoing bearish sentiment, but not yet oversold.
• MACD: Bearish, with further downside pressure expected.
• Key Observation: Brent Crude may test $70.70 USD if the bearish pennant pattern plays out.

Summary:

• Overall Sentiment: Brent Crude Oil is in a confirmed downtrend across multiple timeframes. The Head and Shoulders pattern on the monthly chart and the bearish signals on weekly and daily charts suggest further downside risks.
• Critical Levels:
• Resistance:
• $86.30 USD (daily), $110 USD (weekly, Fibonacci 0.764).
• Support:
• $71.92 USD (daily and weekly), $58.19 USD (monthly).
• RSI Levels: Several timeframes indicate oversold conditions, particularly on the 4-hour and hourly charts, which may offer short-term bounce opportunities.

Trade Strategy:

• Short Setup:
• Entry: On a breakdown below $71.92 USD.
• Target: $58 USD (based on monthly Fibonacci and H&S pattern).
• Stop-Loss: Above $86.30 USD.
• Long Setup (Short-Term Bounce):
• Entry: On a bounce from $71.40 USD.
• Target: $81.57 USD.
• Stop-Loss: Below $70 USD.

Conclusion:

The overall trend remains bearish for Brent Crude Oil, with a possible target of $58 USD in the medium term. However, short-term oversold conditions could offer a bounce towards $81.57 USD before the downtrend continues.