$TTD to go below $60

há 4 dias

- Investors were paying too much for growth in TTD
- It operates in a very competitive space.
- Leadership is solid however eps growth and gaap eps tells a different story. EPS growth is impressive but gaap eps is terrible. Stock based comp remain consistent but somehow gaap eps isn't growing as fast as non-gaap eps.


- Nonetheless, here's fair value for TTD

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 1.79 | 2.21 | 2.85 | 3.89
EPS growth | 9.54% | 23.13% | 28.92% | 36.66%

For eps growth of 20%+ and company with a moat. Fair forward EPS is 30

Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Bear Case ( p/e 20 ) | $35 | $44 | $57 | $77
Base Case (p/e 30 ) | $53.7 | $66.3 | 85.5 | $116
Bull Case (p/e 35 ) | $62 | $77 | $99 | $136

Idea is to buy close to fair value and hold it for period when there is optimism in the market or euphoria and/or valuation expansion where stock is assigned higher forward p/e multiple.

For me, TTD is a buy under $65. However, I have started with a starter position at 80s because you many times good stocks bottom above its fair value.

I plan to build a position in increments because you never know how much stock will undercut on pessimism. However, the above intrinsic value based on EPS should help to identify the ranges

ontem

Nota

*Fair forward p/e ( not eps)

there was a typo