TRXUSD 14 Day Breakdown and Forecast
Overall Summary:
TRXUSD Daily Chart using Heikin Ashi candlesticks, MA (20,50,100,200), VPVR, BB, RSI & MACD.
Overall the last 14 days (from the 31st of August to the 13th of February) were neutral turned bearish as we break out of a 1 month consolidation range. I am bearish for the next 7 days forecasting that prices will retrace to the next major S&R of $0.021, if not $0.018 .
Detailed Summary:
This chart uses daily Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with a custom trend bar indicator, Bollinger Bands, 4 MAs (20, 50, 100 & 200), RSI & MACD.
Heikin Ashi candlesticks are great for trend and swing trading. Heikin Ashi means ‘average’ in Japanese because these candlesticks ‘average out’ price action vs traditional candlesticks that are based on OHLC (Open High Low Close). By averaging out price action this candlestick style reduces ‘noise’ and generates a much smoother chart pattern. This is helpful for trend traders as it is easier to identify the key trend in the market and to ignore smaller price volatility.
During the last two weeks the price has ranged by $.05, opening at $0.27 and closing at $0.24. The price has peaked over the period at 0.30 and then consolidated before breaking down on the 10th of February.
Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use simple Moving Averages on the daily time frame. The 200 MA is red, the 100 MA is orange, the 50 MA is yellow and the 20 MA is green. The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish. For example, if the red is on top and the green is on the bottom, it is clearly bullish. It is also important to note that the longer the Moving Average period, the stronger the support and resistance.
During the last two weeks the price remained above the 200/100/50 MA until the 12th of February when the body crossed below the 50 MA. The 50 Moving Average has acted as support since the 21st of December but is likely to turn to resistance in the next 7 days. The key Support area is $0.21, 0.18 and 0.13 and key Resistance areas is $0.35. I forecast in the next week that price will test the next support area.
Bollinger Bands are the two blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the security’s price. The top and bottom are two standard deviations away from the Moving Average. If the market becomes more volatile, the bands widen and vice versa. Historically 90% of the price action occurs with the Bollinger Bands, as the price oscillates around an equilibrium. There it helps us identify where the price is in the oscillating cycle so that we can identify entry/exit points and major price changes (on the 10% chance when price breaks through the Bolling Bands).
During the last two weeks the Bollinger Bands have contracted 0.03 by $ from $0.07 to $0.04. The decrease in the Bollinger Bands width was due to decreased price volatility during the last week. The wicks broke through the upper band on 1 daily candle, lower band on 3 daily candles and stayed within the bands on 10 daily candles. I forecast in the next week that the Bollinger Bands will increase and overall trend is bearish.
Volume is a key indicator that I use to understand past, current and possibly future price action. Unfortunately a majority of the exchange volume is fake ‘wash’ trading so it is important to rely on data from reliable exchanges like Binance and BitFinex. Volume that supports price recent action helps strengthen my belief in a specific trend.
During this period volume has decreased in convergence with the recent sideways price action. On a longer term time frame, the volume is below the 20MA volume line. I forecast in the next week that the volume will increase and this will support a decrease of price.
Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) indicator show volume by price as a horizontal histogram for the charts visible range. This provides additional insight over traditional volume indicators that are only based on time. By clearly seeing what volume occurred at specific price levels, I can more easily identify key areas of S&R. Two key things to identify are the: POC (Point of Control) which is the price level with the highest volume for a specific period, and the VA (Value Area) which is where 70% of the volume occurred. While VAH (Value Area High) and VAL (Value Area Low) are also worth noting.
During the period the VPVR POC was at 0.26 and the VA occurred between 0.27 and 0.25. Overall, the volume profile is bearish and is in convergence with price action.
The RSI is a popular momentum based oscillator that helps us identify what stage in the security’s oscillation cycle it is most likely at. So after identifying the key market trend we can then apply the RSI to forecast future moves in price action (in terms of velocity and magnitude). This indicator is useful determining entry and exit points, for trend traders like myself, it is used on longer time frames as it is much more reliable. Most of the significant price action occurs around the 30 and 70 areas and ideally what we are looking for is divergence between the price action and the RSI.
During the period the RSI decreased by 14, from 57 to 43 and it is in divergence with the recent price action. It has continued to decline since the bearish failure swing on the 27th. This is when the RSI rises above 70 (considered overbought), RSI drops back below 70 then RSI rises slightly but remains below 70 (remains below overbought) and finally RSI drops lower than its previous low.
I forecast in the next week that the RSI will decrease and this indicates a decrease of price.
The MACD is a popular trend following momentum indicator that can help identify a security’s momentum, trend direction and duration. is a popular trend momentum indicator that can show us a security's overall trend. The core assumption of this indicator is that a security’s price oscillates around an equilibrium. Therefore by looking at the relationship between different MA calculations, we can identify what specific stage a security maybe of it oscillation cycle. This is why we have two lines, the first is called the MACD (26 - 12 MA) and the second is called a Signal line (9 MA). We also have a Histogram (MACD-Signal Line), which is the 1st thing I look at. Finally there is the Zero line, which is basically when the 26 and the 12 MA are equal. The MACD , that combines several indicators, is worth watching when one or more of the following happens: crossovers (MACD/Signal/Histogram and Zero line), convergences/divergences between price and rapid changes.
During this period the MACD has decreased in divergence with the recent price action. The MACD line crossed below the Signal line (on the 30th) which was a bearish trend in divergence with the price action. The MACD histogram continues to increase below the Zero line (on the X) which indicates a strengthening of the bearish trend.
I forecast in the next week that the MACD will decrease over the next week and this indicates a decrease of price.
References:
Heikin Ashi summary - investopedia.com/trading/heikin-ashi-better-candlestick/
Moving Average summary - investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp
Support and Resistance summary - investopedia.com/trading/support-and-resistance-basics/
Bollinger Bands summary - investopedia.com/terms/b/bollingerbands.asp
Fake exchange volume summary - blockchaintransparency.org/
RSI summary - investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp
MACD concise summary - investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp
TRXUSD Daily Chart using Heikin Ashi candlesticks, MA (20,50,100,200), VPVR, BB, RSI & MACD.
Overall the last 14 days (from the 31st of August to the 13th of February) were neutral turned bearish as we break out of a 1 month consolidation range. I am bearish for the next 7 days forecasting that prices will retrace to the next major S&R of $0.021, if not $0.018 .
Detailed Summary:
This chart uses daily Heikin Ashi Candlesticks with a custom trend bar indicator, Bollinger Bands, 4 MAs (20, 50, 100 & 200), RSI & MACD.
Heikin Ashi candlesticks are great for trend and swing trading. Heikin Ashi means ‘average’ in Japanese because these candlesticks ‘average out’ price action vs traditional candlesticks that are based on OHLC (Open High Low Close). By averaging out price action this candlestick style reduces ‘noise’ and generates a much smoother chart pattern. This is helpful for trend traders as it is easier to identify the key trend in the market and to ignore smaller price volatility.
During the last two weeks the price has ranged by $.05, opening at $0.27 and closing at $0.24. The price has peaked over the period at 0.30 and then consolidated before breaking down on the 10th of February.
Moving Average are also used on this chart to help identify major areas of S&R and general price trend action. I prefer to use simple Moving Averages on the daily time frame. The 200 MA is red, the 100 MA is orange, the 50 MA is yellow and the 20 MA is green. The choice of colours helps me to read the chart and see if price action is bullish or bearish. For example, if the red is on top and the green is on the bottom, it is clearly bullish. It is also important to note that the longer the Moving Average period, the stronger the support and resistance.
During the last two weeks the price remained above the 200/100/50 MA until the 12th of February when the body crossed below the 50 MA. The 50 Moving Average has acted as support since the 21st of December but is likely to turn to resistance in the next 7 days. The key Support area is $0.21, 0.18 and 0.13 and key Resistance areas is $0.35. I forecast in the next week that price will test the next support area.
Bollinger Bands are the two blue bands that ‘wrap’ around the security’s price. The top and bottom are two standard deviations away from the Moving Average. If the market becomes more volatile, the bands widen and vice versa. Historically 90% of the price action occurs with the Bollinger Bands, as the price oscillates around an equilibrium. There it helps us identify where the price is in the oscillating cycle so that we can identify entry/exit points and major price changes (on the 10% chance when price breaks through the Bolling Bands).
During the last two weeks the Bollinger Bands have contracted 0.03 by $ from $0.07 to $0.04. The decrease in the Bollinger Bands width was due to decreased price volatility during the last week. The wicks broke through the upper band on 1 daily candle, lower band on 3 daily candles and stayed within the bands on 10 daily candles. I forecast in the next week that the Bollinger Bands will increase and overall trend is bearish.
Volume is a key indicator that I use to understand past, current and possibly future price action. Unfortunately a majority of the exchange volume is fake ‘wash’ trading so it is important to rely on data from reliable exchanges like Binance and BitFinex. Volume that supports price recent action helps strengthen my belief in a specific trend.
During this period volume has decreased in convergence with the recent sideways price action. On a longer term time frame, the volume is below the 20MA volume line. I forecast in the next week that the volume will increase and this will support a decrease of price.
Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) indicator show volume by price as a horizontal histogram for the charts visible range. This provides additional insight over traditional volume indicators that are only based on time. By clearly seeing what volume occurred at specific price levels, I can more easily identify key areas of S&R. Two key things to identify are the: POC (Point of Control) which is the price level with the highest volume for a specific period, and the VA (Value Area) which is where 70% of the volume occurred. While VAH (Value Area High) and VAL (Value Area Low) are also worth noting.
During the period the VPVR POC was at 0.26 and the VA occurred between 0.27 and 0.25. Overall, the volume profile is bearish and is in convergence with price action.
The RSI is a popular momentum based oscillator that helps us identify what stage in the security’s oscillation cycle it is most likely at. So after identifying the key market trend we can then apply the RSI to forecast future moves in price action (in terms of velocity and magnitude). This indicator is useful determining entry and exit points, for trend traders like myself, it is used on longer time frames as it is much more reliable. Most of the significant price action occurs around the 30 and 70 areas and ideally what we are looking for is divergence between the price action and the RSI.
During the period the RSI decreased by 14, from 57 to 43 and it is in divergence with the recent price action. It has continued to decline since the bearish failure swing on the 27th. This is when the RSI rises above 70 (considered overbought), RSI drops back below 70 then RSI rises slightly but remains below 70 (remains below overbought) and finally RSI drops lower than its previous low.
I forecast in the next week that the RSI will decrease and this indicates a decrease of price.
The MACD is a popular trend following momentum indicator that can help identify a security’s momentum, trend direction and duration. is a popular trend momentum indicator that can show us a security's overall trend. The core assumption of this indicator is that a security’s price oscillates around an equilibrium. Therefore by looking at the relationship between different MA calculations, we can identify what specific stage a security maybe of it oscillation cycle. This is why we have two lines, the first is called the MACD (26 - 12 MA) and the second is called a Signal line (9 MA). We also have a Histogram (MACD-Signal Line), which is the 1st thing I look at. Finally there is the Zero line, which is basically when the 26 and the 12 MA are equal. The MACD , that combines several indicators, is worth watching when one or more of the following happens: crossovers (MACD/Signal/Histogram and Zero line), convergences/divergences between price and rapid changes.
During this period the MACD has decreased in divergence with the recent price action. The MACD line crossed below the Signal line (on the 30th) which was a bearish trend in divergence with the price action. The MACD histogram continues to increase below the Zero line (on the X) which indicates a strengthening of the bearish trend.
I forecast in the next week that the MACD will decrease over the next week and this indicates a decrease of price.
References:
Heikin Ashi summary - investopedia.com/trading/heikin-ashi-better-candlestick/
Moving Average summary - investopedia.com/terms/m/movingaverage.asp
Support and Resistance summary - investopedia.com/trading/support-and-resistance-basics/
Bollinger Bands summary - investopedia.com/terms/b/bollingerbands.asp
Fake exchange volume summary - blockchaintransparency.org/
RSI summary - investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp
MACD concise summary - investopedia.com/terms/m/macd.asp
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