Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding BTC, $Viés de baixa
Bear market rather sooner than later
I'm back everyone, sorry for being absent. I was in Tradingview jail... great timing - I'm sure you must be happy about that given recent market fluctuations. Check my link in bio for more analyses.
Now, we have started our downtrend on almost all coins, most have topped for this year, some are setting their last ATH. There are multiple reasons for this downtrend:
- Tapering & interest rate hike fed
We have the FOMC this week and tapering will start earlier, this means the fed will phase out its support program. There might be also interest hike which will control inflation. Simply this means less money is being pumped into the market and money is getting more expensive.
- Options expiration 24 dec
This is main reason for the downtrend and I do expect a significant correction before the 24th of dec. There is a huge options expiration on dec 24. There are usually two major expirations; half yearly: June and yearly: December. We know what happened in April & May before the half yearly expiration so you can get an idea of what will happen this month.
- Tether
We have increased regulation incoming for especially stable coins. Given Tether is rather shady and their book keeping is not transparent, we might see problems for USDT along the line. I do not think they do not have enough on their balance to back USDT's. Honestly I think they swim in money given the bull market we have seen but they might not comply with regulations which forces exchanges to step out of USDT for another stablecoin solution. Tether pumps the market, that's the truth - so if their market cap comes down, so will the market. When will this happen? Probably in 2022, we should focus on the options of Dec 24th first.
From a technical standpoint, we can see that we are at the end of wave 5; depending on how you'd count the waves but more important the RSI; in this case TDI. We see a bearish divergence on the weekly; a higher high and a lower high on the TDI. Furthermore we can see that if the fast moving RSI (red) crosses below the market base (yellow line) its historically time for a fierce correction if the slow moving RSI (green) stay below the fast moving. Check the orange squares to see what happened before. So what to do? I will post videos about specific strategies you can follow as a hodler, swing trader or leverage trader.
A bearish scenario is only invalidated when we break the downward sloping resistance and hold it as support for at least two consecutive weekly closes. Many people are screaming alt season, that's just nonsense, we've been in alt season since January. Lets see how this crucial month develops....
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
LINK IN BIO: new youtube channel starting soon, teaching you different winning strategies.
Now, we have started our downtrend on almost all coins, most have topped for this year, some are setting their last ATH. There are multiple reasons for this downtrend:
- Tapering & interest rate hike fed
We have the FOMC this week and tapering will start earlier, this means the fed will phase out its support program. There might be also interest hike which will control inflation. Simply this means less money is being pumped into the market and money is getting more expensive.
- Options expiration 24 dec
This is main reason for the downtrend and I do expect a significant correction before the 24th of dec. There is a huge options expiration on dec 24. There are usually two major expirations; half yearly: June and yearly: December. We know what happened in April & May before the half yearly expiration so you can get an idea of what will happen this month.
- Tether
We have increased regulation incoming for especially stable coins. Given Tether is rather shady and their book keeping is not transparent, we might see problems for USDT along the line. I do not think they do not have enough on their balance to back USDT's. Honestly I think they swim in money given the bull market we have seen but they might not comply with regulations which forces exchanges to step out of USDT for another stablecoin solution. Tether pumps the market, that's the truth - so if their market cap comes down, so will the market. When will this happen? Probably in 2022, we should focus on the options of Dec 24th first.
From a technical standpoint, we can see that we are at the end of wave 5; depending on how you'd count the waves but more important the RSI; in this case TDI. We see a bearish divergence on the weekly; a higher high and a lower high on the TDI. Furthermore we can see that if the fast moving RSI (red) crosses below the market base (yellow line) its historically time for a fierce correction if the slow moving RSI (green) stay below the fast moving. Check the orange squares to see what happened before. So what to do? I will post videos about specific strategies you can follow as a hodler, swing trader or leverage trader.
A bearish scenario is only invalidated when we break the downward sloping resistance and hold it as support for at least two consecutive weekly closes. Many people are screaming alt season, that's just nonsense, we've been in alt season since January. Lets see how this crucial month develops....
IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.
LINK IN BIO: new youtube channel starting soon, teaching you different winning strategies.
Important update on Twitter on 10x Club, a weekly newsletter curated by me containing research & analytics on the crypto market & the amazing opportunities during the bear market - Check my Twitter or website link below:
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