MARKETS week ahead: January 26 – February 1
Last week in the news
The US inflation is not as scary as investors previously thought. In this sense, they adjusted previous expectations and returned positive sentiment to financial markets. The US equity markets recovered from losses carried two weeks ago. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.996. The US Dollar continued to gain in strength, but due to general uncertainty, the price of gold also surged back to the $2,7K levels. The US Treasury yields reacted strongly on inflation figures, bringing back the 10Y US benchmark to the level of 4,62%. In the dawn of the US new Administration inauguration, the crypto market also reacted positively, bringing BTC back above the level of 100K.
The main event during the previous week on financial markets was related to the inauguration of a new US Administration. There was a question whether all promises from the pre-election period will be fulfilled? For one more time, markets reacted positively, bringing US equities to the higher grounds, where S&P 500 reached its fresh all-time highest level. The US Dollar weakened a bit, bringing the price of gold close to its ATH, ending the week at the level of $6.101. In anticipation of the FOMC meeting next week, the US Treasuries headed toward the upside, ending the week at the level of 4,61%. The presidential order for a formation of a cryptocurrency working group with the target to draft a new digital asset regulation, boring BTC toward the fresh, new ATH at the 109K.
During the previous week there has not been currently important macro data scheduled for a release, however, the inauguration of the new US President was the main event which shaped the market sentiment. One of the most important topics for markets was whether the new President will impose tariffs on imported goods, as promised in the pre-election period, especially tariffs on goods from China? This represents the most fearful event for investors, as they are anticipating that tariffs might bring inflation in the US toward the upside, which will affect Fed to keep interest rates at current levels longer than it is now expected. Still, the idea of tariffs still holds in the new US Administration, in which sense, the investors fear is for the moment just postponed.
One of the major moves of the new US Administration was related to the crypto market. Namely, within the first days in the office, the US President signed an presidential order for the creation of the cryptocurrency working group, whose aim will be to draft the first regulation in the US on digital assets while exploring the creation of a cryptocurrency stockpile on the national level. This order is also important as it bans the topic of creation of a central bank digital currency in the US.
With the focus of the new US Administration on the crypto, there are some major movements of the capital on the international scene. As Cointelegraph is reporting, one of the prominent venture capital companies, Andreessen Horowitz will close its office in the United Kingdom in order to focus on the US market. Its London office was opened in 2023.
As expected and announced, the Bank of Japan increased its target interest rate by 25bps to the level of 0,5%. Such a move was supported by BoJ inflation expectations in 2025 and 2026. The expected increase in rates was previously fully priced by market, in which sense, there has not been any higher movements on financial markets in Japan and US.
Crypto market cap
Another volatile week on the crypto markets which ended with a positive sentiment. All investors' eyes were on the inauguration of the new US Administration and moves which will be taken during first days in the office. For the crypto market, the most important information was related to the Presidential order for a formation of the cryptocurrency working group. This group will work in the future period on a development of the crypto regulation in the US, as well as the potential for the creation of the cryptocurrency stockpile on the national level. Such a move brought back investors confidence, bringing the total crypto market capitalization to the higher grounds as of the weekend. Still, considering the previous drop in the value, the crypto market capitalization is ending this week relatively flat, compared to the week before. There has been a small drop of nearly 1%, decreasing total crypto cap by 40B. Daily trading volumes were also modestly decreased to the level of around 200B on a daily basis, from 340B traded a week before. Total crypto market cap increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at 9%, where 300B has been added.
The majority of crypto coins finished the week in red, however, there were also several altcoins which managed to gain during the week. BTC finished the week relatively flat, compared to the week before. On the other hand, ETH lost some 3% in value, decreasing its cap by 12B. BNB was also on a losing side, dropping its value by 2,8% w/w, or $2,8B. Interestingly, Solana was among significant losers, with a drop in value of 4,7%, decreasing its cap by $6,1B. This group also includes DOGE, with a drop in value of 10% or $5,8B. The majority of other altcoins had a weekly drop around 10%. On the opposite side were coins like Tron, which gained 4,2% in value, Monero surged by 4,3% w/w. After a significant surge in the value prior to inauguration, the Trump meme coin lost 54% in value in an after-inauguration period.
When coins in circulation are in question, the highest weekly move had BNB, which decreased the number of circulating coins by 1,1%. At the same time, the number of Tether coins increased by 0,7%. Iota had a surge of 0,5% while Stellar, Algorand and Filecoin increased the number of coins on the market by 0,2% each.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market was a reflection of spot developments during the previous week. In this sense, BTC futures ended the week only with a small drop in prices for most of the maturities. They ended the week almost flat. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year were last traded at the level $114.040, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $123.950.
On the opposite side were ETH futures, which ended the week around 5,5% lower from the week before, for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at the level of $3.575, while those maturing in December 2026 for one more time dropped below the level of $ 4K, and closed the week at $3.840.
The US inflation is not as scary as investors previously thought. In this sense, they adjusted previous expectations and returned positive sentiment to financial markets. The US equity markets recovered from losses carried two weeks ago. The S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.996. The US Dollar continued to gain in strength, but due to general uncertainty, the price of gold also surged back to the $2,7K levels. The US Treasury yields reacted strongly on inflation figures, bringing back the 10Y US benchmark to the level of 4,62%. In the dawn of the US new Administration inauguration, the crypto market also reacted positively, bringing BTC back above the level of 100K.
The main event during the previous week on financial markets was related to the inauguration of a new US Administration. There was a question whether all promises from the pre-election period will be fulfilled? For one more time, markets reacted positively, bringing US equities to the higher grounds, where S&P 500 reached its fresh all-time highest level. The US Dollar weakened a bit, bringing the price of gold close to its ATH, ending the week at the level of $6.101. In anticipation of the FOMC meeting next week, the US Treasuries headed toward the upside, ending the week at the level of 4,61%. The presidential order for a formation of a cryptocurrency working group with the target to draft a new digital asset regulation, boring BTC toward the fresh, new ATH at the 109K.
During the previous week there has not been currently important macro data scheduled for a release, however, the inauguration of the new US President was the main event which shaped the market sentiment. One of the most important topics for markets was whether the new President will impose tariffs on imported goods, as promised in the pre-election period, especially tariffs on goods from China? This represents the most fearful event for investors, as they are anticipating that tariffs might bring inflation in the US toward the upside, which will affect Fed to keep interest rates at current levels longer than it is now expected. Still, the idea of tariffs still holds in the new US Administration, in which sense, the investors fear is for the moment just postponed.
One of the major moves of the new US Administration was related to the crypto market. Namely, within the first days in the office, the US President signed an presidential order for the creation of the cryptocurrency working group, whose aim will be to draft the first regulation in the US on digital assets while exploring the creation of a cryptocurrency stockpile on the national level. This order is also important as it bans the topic of creation of a central bank digital currency in the US.
With the focus of the new US Administration on the crypto, there are some major movements of the capital on the international scene. As Cointelegraph is reporting, one of the prominent venture capital companies, Andreessen Horowitz will close its office in the United Kingdom in order to focus on the US market. Its London office was opened in 2023.
As expected and announced, the Bank of Japan increased its target interest rate by 25bps to the level of 0,5%. Such a move was supported by BoJ inflation expectations in 2025 and 2026. The expected increase in rates was previously fully priced by market, in which sense, there has not been any higher movements on financial markets in Japan and US.
Crypto market cap
Another volatile week on the crypto markets which ended with a positive sentiment. All investors' eyes were on the inauguration of the new US Administration and moves which will be taken during first days in the office. For the crypto market, the most important information was related to the Presidential order for a formation of the cryptocurrency working group. This group will work in the future period on a development of the crypto regulation in the US, as well as the potential for the creation of the cryptocurrency stockpile on the national level. Such a move brought back investors confidence, bringing the total crypto market capitalization to the higher grounds as of the weekend. Still, considering the previous drop in the value, the crypto market capitalization is ending this week relatively flat, compared to the week before. There has been a small drop of nearly 1%, decreasing total crypto cap by 40B. Daily trading volumes were also modestly decreased to the level of around 200B on a daily basis, from 340B traded a week before. Total crypto market cap increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at 9%, where 300B has been added.
The majority of crypto coins finished the week in red, however, there were also several altcoins which managed to gain during the week. BTC finished the week relatively flat, compared to the week before. On the other hand, ETH lost some 3% in value, decreasing its cap by 12B. BNB was also on a losing side, dropping its value by 2,8% w/w, or $2,8B. Interestingly, Solana was among significant losers, with a drop in value of 4,7%, decreasing its cap by $6,1B. This group also includes DOGE, with a drop in value of 10% or $5,8B. The majority of other altcoins had a weekly drop around 10%. On the opposite side were coins like Tron, which gained 4,2% in value, Monero surged by 4,3% w/w. After a significant surge in the value prior to inauguration, the Trump meme coin lost 54% in value in an after-inauguration period.
When coins in circulation are in question, the highest weekly move had BNB, which decreased the number of circulating coins by 1,1%. At the same time, the number of Tether coins increased by 0,7%. Iota had a surge of 0,5% while Stellar, Algorand and Filecoin increased the number of coins on the market by 0,2% each.
Crypto futures market
The crypto futures market was a reflection of spot developments during the previous week. In this sense, BTC futures ended the week only with a small drop in prices for most of the maturities. They ended the week almost flat. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year were last traded at the level $114.040, while those maturing a year later closed the week at $123.950.
On the opposite side were ETH futures, which ended the week around 5,5% lower from the week before, for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at the level of $3.575, while those maturing in December 2026 for one more time dropped below the level of $ 4K, and closed the week at $3.840.
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