MARKETS week ahead: July 29 – August 03
Last week in the news
The released June PCE Index was the major driver of the sentiment on financial markets during the previous week. The US Dollar strengthened during the week, however, PCE data pushed the currency into correction. Following the correlation with the USD, the price of gold ended the week a bit higher from previous weekly levels, at $2.385. The 10Y Treasury yields were optimistic about the potential rate cut in September, pushing yields lower from 4.20% level. In light of potential rate cuts, investors are switching attention to small cap stocks, in which sense, the S&P 500 continued with a correction to the downside during the week, ending it at the level of 5.459. In a quest for riskier assets, investors pushed the price of BTC toward the levels above the 68K. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, hence, market nervousness might continue.
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge was published on Friday, posting an increase of 0.1% for a month, bringing it to the level of 2.5% on a yearly basis in June. At the same time, core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% y/y. The posted results were in line with the market estimate. Current market sentiment regarding potential Fed's rate cut in September is best described by Rober Frick, economists working with Navy Federal Credit Union, who note in an interview with CNBC: “Spending is good enough to maintain the expansion, and income is good enough to maintain spending, and the level of PCE inflation is good enough to make the decision to cut rates easy for the Fed”.
Apple is no longer a top smartphone seller in China, as per analysis conducted by the Canalys. The domestic Huawei took the advantage on China's market from Apple. Since the beginning of the year, Apple's sales in China are in decline by 25% on a yearly basis.
In light of the US equity market correction during the previous two weeks, analysts from UBS continue to be positive on the future developments on this market. In their positive view, they are noting positive economic growth in the US. The further development within the IT industry and increased AI use, they see as a positive factor for the future development of stock prices of tech companies.
The first spot ETH exchange traded fund started trading in the US, after SEC`s approval. The interest of investors was significant, reaching $1 billion during the first trading day. Black Rock`s ETH ETF saw around $800 million in inflows during the first two days. Still, the staking in the ETH would not be possible for the moment, as this product might violate several SEC`s rules and the US Law on securities.
Howard Lutnick, CEO of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzerald noted at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville that the company is planning to launch a $2 billion in bitcoin financing business. The plan of the company is to provide leverage to bitcoin holders.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market was traded in a relatively mixed manner during the previous week. There have generally been two major events that shaped the market sentiment. The first one is related the first to ETH ETF which was released for trading, after SEC`s approval, and the other one is related to macro data in the US, where the release of June PCE data showed slowdown in inflation, supporting market expectations that the first rate cut might occur in September this year. Namely, as expectation in an environment of decreasing interest rates is surging, the investors are of the opinion that it would be positive for the crypto market, as investors would seek riskier assets for higher returns on their investments. Certainly, the majority of crypto investors were looking at developments with ETH, as the first ETH ETF managed to collect over $ 1B in funds during the first trading day. In this sense, some re-adjustments of positions in altcoins occurred. Regardless of a surge in the price of BTC, total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly basis, where the market lost some 36B in value. At the same time, daily trading volumes were also modestly decreased to the level of 101B on a daily basis, from 136B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at 731B, which represents a 45% surge from the beginning of this year.
The crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. BTC managed to end the week in a positive manner, adding $ 26B to its market cap, increasing it by 1.9% on a weekly basis. Still, due to the start of trading of the first ETH ETF, there has been a drop in the market cap of ETH by 7.5% w/w, where the coin lost some $ 32B in value. Among other altcoins, there has been almost an equal number of losers and gainers. On a gaining side were coins like ZCash, which added 8.5% to its market cap, Solana is still in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 5%, while Tron managed to add 2.4% value to its market cap. Among altcoins who lost in value during the week were Theta, with a drop of 7.3%, OMG Network was down by 7.5%, while Algroand dropped by almost 11%. Among coins who finished the week in red were Polkadot, with a drop of 8.1% w/w, Maker was down by 6.9%, while the majority of other altcoins lost up to 5% in value.
There has been several developments when coins in circulation are in question. During the week, Tether added 0.4% new coins to the market, increasing its market capitalization by this percentage. IOTA added 0.6% of new coins, which is not so frequently seen with this coin. Filecoin, traditionally, has increased its number of coins by 0.3% on a weekly level. Interestingly, Binance Coin pulled 1.1% of its coins from the market. There are no further details publicly available at this moment, what was behind such a pull back.
Crypto futures market
Movements from the spot market were reflected in the spot market, in which sense, BTC and ETH futures were traded in opposite directions. BTC futures were traded higher from the week before for all maturities. However, it should be noted that the movements on the futures market were lower from the spot market. BTC short term futures were traded around 0.5% on average, higher from the week before, while the longer term ones were higher by around 1% on a weekly level. BTC futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at the level of $70.645, and those maturing a year later, at the price of $78.155.
The first trading day of the ETH ETF pushed the price of ETH to the lower grounds, as well as ETH futures which were traded around 7.3% lower from the week before. ETH futures maturing in December this year closed the market at level of $3.406, and those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at price $3.646.
The released June PCE Index was the major driver of the sentiment on financial markets during the previous week. The US Dollar strengthened during the week, however, PCE data pushed the currency into correction. Following the correlation with the USD, the price of gold ended the week a bit higher from previous weekly levels, at $2.385. The 10Y Treasury yields were optimistic about the potential rate cut in September, pushing yields lower from 4.20% level. In light of potential rate cuts, investors are switching attention to small cap stocks, in which sense, the S&P 500 continued with a correction to the downside during the week, ending it at the level of 5.459. In a quest for riskier assets, investors pushed the price of BTC toward the levels above the 68K. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the week ahead, hence, market nervousness might continue.
The Fed's favorite inflation gauge was published on Friday, posting an increase of 0.1% for a month, bringing it to the level of 2.5% on a yearly basis in June. At the same time, core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% y/y. The posted results were in line with the market estimate. Current market sentiment regarding potential Fed's rate cut in September is best described by Rober Frick, economists working with Navy Federal Credit Union, who note in an interview with CNBC: “Spending is good enough to maintain the expansion, and income is good enough to maintain spending, and the level of PCE inflation is good enough to make the decision to cut rates easy for the Fed”.
Apple is no longer a top smartphone seller in China, as per analysis conducted by the Canalys. The domestic Huawei took the advantage on China's market from Apple. Since the beginning of the year, Apple's sales in China are in decline by 25% on a yearly basis.
In light of the US equity market correction during the previous two weeks, analysts from UBS continue to be positive on the future developments on this market. In their positive view, they are noting positive economic growth in the US. The further development within the IT industry and increased AI use, they see as a positive factor for the future development of stock prices of tech companies.
The first spot ETH exchange traded fund started trading in the US, after SEC`s approval. The interest of investors was significant, reaching $1 billion during the first trading day. Black Rock`s ETH ETF saw around $800 million in inflows during the first two days. Still, the staking in the ETH would not be possible for the moment, as this product might violate several SEC`s rules and the US Law on securities.
Howard Lutnick, CEO of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzerald noted at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville that the company is planning to launch a $2 billion in bitcoin financing business. The plan of the company is to provide leverage to bitcoin holders.
Crypto market cap
The crypto market was traded in a relatively mixed manner during the previous week. There have generally been two major events that shaped the market sentiment. The first one is related the first to ETH ETF which was released for trading, after SEC`s approval, and the other one is related to macro data in the US, where the release of June PCE data showed slowdown in inflation, supporting market expectations that the first rate cut might occur in September this year. Namely, as expectation in an environment of decreasing interest rates is surging, the investors are of the opinion that it would be positive for the crypto market, as investors would seek riskier assets for higher returns on their investments. Certainly, the majority of crypto investors were looking at developments with ETH, as the first ETH ETF managed to collect over $ 1B in funds during the first trading day. In this sense, some re-adjustments of positions in altcoins occurred. Regardless of a surge in the price of BTC, total crypto market capitalization decreased by 1% on a weekly basis, where the market lost some 36B in value. At the same time, daily trading volumes were also modestly decreased to the level of 101B on a daily basis, from 136B traded a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at 731B, which represents a 45% surge from the beginning of this year.
The crypto market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week. BTC managed to end the week in a positive manner, adding $ 26B to its market cap, increasing it by 1.9% on a weekly basis. Still, due to the start of trading of the first ETH ETF, there has been a drop in the market cap of ETH by 7.5% w/w, where the coin lost some $ 32B in value. Among other altcoins, there has been almost an equal number of losers and gainers. On a gaining side were coins like ZCash, which added 8.5% to its market cap, Solana is still in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 5%, while Tron managed to add 2.4% value to its market cap. Among altcoins who lost in value during the week were Theta, with a drop of 7.3%, OMG Network was down by 7.5%, while Algroand dropped by almost 11%. Among coins who finished the week in red were Polkadot, with a drop of 8.1% w/w, Maker was down by 6.9%, while the majority of other altcoins lost up to 5% in value.
There has been several developments when coins in circulation are in question. During the week, Tether added 0.4% new coins to the market, increasing its market capitalization by this percentage. IOTA added 0.6% of new coins, which is not so frequently seen with this coin. Filecoin, traditionally, has increased its number of coins by 0.3% on a weekly level. Interestingly, Binance Coin pulled 1.1% of its coins from the market. There are no further details publicly available at this moment, what was behind such a pull back.
Crypto futures market
Movements from the spot market were reflected in the spot market, in which sense, BTC and ETH futures were traded in opposite directions. BTC futures were traded higher from the week before for all maturities. However, it should be noted that the movements on the futures market were lower from the spot market. BTC short term futures were traded around 0.5% on average, higher from the week before, while the longer term ones were higher by around 1% on a weekly level. BTC futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at the level of $70.645, and those maturing a year later, at the price of $78.155.
The first trading day of the ETH ETF pushed the price of ETH to the lower grounds, as well as ETH futures which were traded around 7.3% lower from the week before. ETH futures maturing in December this year closed the market at level of $3.406, and those maturing in December 2025 were last traded at price $3.646.
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