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Sunworks correction/turnaround soon? ABC, potential to 2.70

Atualizado

Sunworks suffered a lot already, and the stock almost in the graveyard. I am following it a while, was a nice short on the way down. Finally posted a tiny bit more positive earnings compared to expectation.
Meanwhile a falling wedge formation created. Also moving in a big downward channel. There are two scenarios for counting the waves, one scenario suggests, that the wave 5 down could be finished (1.618 extension was put in a few days ago), and we are up for at least an A-B-C upside correction.
Possibly (but not guaranteed) we just starting to put in the Wave "A", so far.
Consodilation in a smaller channel happening, with one breakout to the top,which could fall back. Important thing in order to have this idea a basis, is not to put in a new low (0.7252), and not to stay below comfortably 0.78. If that happens, then I need to assume new lows are coming.
It is possible, that this 0.78 level will be retested, I am following SUNW's actions now more closely.

On the daily, RSI is started to come up a bit, trying to leave the oversold levels. MACD coming up, a little bit week still.
The 9/15 SMA's starting to turn updwards, currently being a possible support. 21day EMA so far rejecting price actions, so we are squeezed in between those.
52day EMA/180 EMA, 200SMA coming down, 52 in a higher speed.

On the weekly, 200 SMA up at around 3.92; it is far away (to be a resistance)
Weekly RSI is on oversold levels (could drop more of course), trying to leave it, now showing sign of possible normalization,
MACD indicator could start to converge (in a few weeks could be divergenced, but no guarantee)

I have opened a long position( accumulation purposes), regardless of this idea.
I plan to open an other one for swing-trading, IF we restest the 0.78 fib level and popping back up from that (meaning possible wave 3 starting to the upside, and wave 2 is in)

Also be aware, as of now, the 1st quarter 2023 results,conference call and webcast was postponed, which might heavily influence the price actions (and sure it has a reason behind it.)

Resistance at 0.92, next resistance at 1.12.
No GAP below, next GAPs upwards:1.12; 1.62

Nota

Short update, I was watching the price actions, checked pre/aftermarket actions as well. For the more bearish scenario: this is still very early days, and it is possible , that we have not finished the wave 5 down yet (there is multiple ways to count the waves). It is possible (there is a chance), that we are forming the wave4 "up", but then possibly it gonna be short lived before going down to wave 5.

My concern is, this wave 2 count is not very confident so far. In fact we put in two times 1-2-3, and if I count extended trading hours, then it is actually 3times 1-2-3. Impulsive move missing to start wave3 up. Therefore it could happen this will be the scenario:

I need to see either blue brush scenarios and an impulsive move up, at least 3count out of 5 to have some more confidence in the primary expectaions.

Trade ativo

Mid size position added

Nota

So we got the impulsive wave up I was waiting for, confirming that we are in a 3rd wave up started, and possibly showing at least temporal trend change (remember, so far I believe 5th big wave finished, and we putting in a bigger A-B-C up correction as a minimum- and later who knows - but that is many many weeks away)
snapshot
Overall i think we are now in a very small (see in blue) abc correction to create a small pullback, I highlighted the support areas in yellow boxes. It does not neccessarly HAVE TO pull back to those area, but USUALLY small wave2 (small abc downcorrections) does that.

So as you can see, I believe on the micro-level we have finished 5 small waves , which is part of wave i (wave1). So for now, as proven by price actions otherwise I think we are in a wave 2, of bigger wave i (first wave), of a bigger wave 3, of a bigger wave "A". Meaning plenty of upside potential, of course it is not 100% !!!. And it will not happen from one day to an other, also will have ups and downs, zigzags, impulsive waves, and pullbacks.

We closed at 1.13, just above a very important resistance level. Now, normally we should pull back to the orange boxes, HOWEVER it is possible that we get an other impulsive up instead, and then I will modify the micro wave counts, so therefore when pullback needed, it will just need to pull back to this resistance level. I will watch it carefully what happens next.

On the daily, we have pleanty of room on the RSI to the upside, MACD is coming up strong, also volume is starting to grow.
9day SMA, 15day SMA, 21day EMA turned back up, and coming up so far, will provide support later.
The 50/52 day MA provided resistance, which is also correlates with the top of the both falling wedges; meaning, so far we was unable to break it through. REmember, we have 2 falling wedges inside each other.

The smaller wedge uptarget: 2.96
The bigger wedge uptarget: 3.88
But theese are very long ways to go.
If we reach the big A wave minimum target of 2.70, I will be more than happy, more just extras.

On the weekly we have left oversold territory on the RSI, MACD is in the negative but showing some slowdown and convergence already, not yet diverged though!

Again, I was trying to catch a possible bottom, so the indicators will need to catch up to support this possible idea. So far it is positive.

Nota

Short mid-day update: so we got an extension of the wave3 and putting in a rather high small wave5. Normal thing should happening now: a pullback (abc with a small zigzag). I highlighted to you the support zones, if it is breaking below comfortably the last rectangle, then probably something more bearish going on, but that is not my primary expectations.

We should find support either in the first or second box, and starting an other 1-2-3-4-5 count up

Nota

We are forming the blue c wave down correction, I plan to execute to follwing trade, orders are set for long:

Nota

Price actions shows strenght, quite impulsive again in fact, altough I am not 100% convinced this is already the 3rd wave up, altough could be. There is still a high chance this is just the abc correction (wave ii) currently just putting in the b wave up, which could be even overshooting. I can count on the microlevel 5 count down as a "leading diagonal", so we could revisit the support area to put in the c wave down. Above 1.33 I would consider the wave ii however finished and we are already in the wave iii up , of the 3rd wave of the big A wave up.

All currently relevant MA's (9day/15day/21day/52 day) are below us, possibly providing support later (this support the wave ii finished scenario), also the weekly RSI looking good, MACD converged and just divergenced( this is just the beginning of the week!!!).

We are reaching soon overbought territory, which does not mean we cannot shoot higher in the short term, just signals attention (this more supports that we are still need to put in the blue small c wave down to the support area boxes).

Nota

Whoever likes formations, we also have a cup and handle, currently formed the right up-part of the handle, and sitting at resistance.

Nota

Very nice runup, we have put in either the 3rd blue wave up (there is a chance it is already the 5th wave up, due to the huge runup, I can count 5 waves technically).
Long story short: we are anyway up for a pullback/correction, also the RSI would need some breather.
So far all the daily MA's are below us, good sign. (except the 200, but that is normal after such a huge selloff)
I might add some more position on the pullback

Nota

SUNW acting so far very strong, hesitating just around the strong upper resistance level. Technically the 3rd wave up could be in. It was very strong move, and it is also possible, that it was already the 5th wave in. Anyway a pullback is imminent, either a wave 4 with an abc down, or a bit stronger bigger if it was the 5th wave.

I assume the count up has been finished, possibly we already put in the a wave down, folliwing b up (could be overshooting b wave be aware!!!), and then a c wave down. Therefore I adjusted the support boxes for later turnaround again to the upside. Also it is a good candidate now for a short setup, stop loss putting a bit above the resistance, and your take profit being the support boxes (tp1-2-3 maybe)

Daily looking very good from the Moving averages perspective (9/15/21/50), showing very strong momentum. RSI is getting overbought, MACD also very strong, so I would say probably ~around time to put in the pullback (normal).
Weekly also closed strong, we converged and divergd on the MACD, RSI coming up nice as well.

Nota

Mid-day update: I have updated the support/turnaround boxes for the supposed red small abc downcorrection, based on the price actions today/before hours.

Trade ativo

Position added @1.42

Trade ativo

Position added @ 1.35

Nota

That was a massive impulse down today; big bullers showed up at resistance at 1.26. I catched the push back up at 1.35, that was an extreme fast movement. With this movement it is not possible anymore we are in the iii. blue wave up, but minimally it was the blue v. wave, I have adjusted the analyzis. For now, it suggests, we have completed the orange 3rd wave up, and whats happening now, so far, is an orange 4 wave pullback.

But be aware, with this amount of extreme short sellers it also became clear, what is their agenda, and it is very very straightforward:
First they will try to invlaidate the 5 count up structure (my orange counts) by want to dump it to the 1st yellow box. We could still have a bullish scenario overall in this case

If they succeed, they will then try to shoot and mass sell down to the second yellow box, invalidating the cup and handle AND putting in a huge head and shoulders. We could still have a bullish scenario, just with different wavecounts, but it will be then extremely risky; sellers want this whole nice moveup to be only a huge wave 4 correction of SUNW (followed then by a 5th wave down. massive down I mean)

If they succeed, they will then try to selloff to the third box, ultimately invalidating this whole concept, the ABC upcorrection, morphing this into just the big wave 4 correction, and sending SUNW to the graveyard. Just be aware, the risk is there.

I still stick to the primary scenario (buliish) until not proven otherwise.
We have all the moving averages support below us. RSI/MACD has room to grow further. Weekly datas still looking okay. Due to the massive move today, I do not see that the abc downcorrection is finished yet, in fact, I would not be suprised to visit now the orange and the brown box below, but lets see.

Nota

Mid-day update: we are putting in the c wave down from the small a-b-c pink colored as expected. Now, seemingly at least 1 more leg down missing... we are forming a triangle, which usually happens in wave b or wave 4, meaning, I assume we are in a smaller wave4 of the pink c wave leg down, and hopefully will not shoot a lot under the pink a wave low. Lets see, bulls need to be very strong now.

Nota

Possibly we are morphing the wave 4 (hopefully?) into either an abcde triangle / wxy or wxyxz triangle. We need patiente now.

Nota

We started the week with some dancing around the smaller support boxes. Clearly SUNW right now is suffering, fight is going on hugely. So far this is looking now weak; on the daily, the 9day SMA is rejecting us, which is not a good sign: meaning we are even suffering to put in the pink D wave up which could "save" the bulls. Moreover, seemingly either a triangle or a bear flag is forming on the lower timeframe, meaning, bears desperately want this to visit the other support boxes below as a minimum (and then we all know what they want as a next step).

So far, the 21 and 15 day MA's providing support. We also left quiet a big gap to the upside.
Moreover, on the daily, RSI is weakening, and MACD is seeming about to put in a red, converging already, possibility is very high that it will diverge as well, meaning selling pressure getting more extrem possibly. Lets see...

Nota

SUNW suffering heavily still, I have modified the counts, this scenario have the highest chance now that going on:

I would say we gonna hit most likely the top of the barrier trendline and then selloff incoming to the lower support boxes. But I am not 100% (nothing is)

Nota

Mid-day update: wave purple small "E" fell short, but valid still, we broke to the downside, putting in I would say the pink "C" wave, of the yellow circle "y" wave.

Warning! It does not looking finished for me, possibly other low coming later.

Nota

I have revised the counts, I will switch to this as a primary scenario for now. Invalidation point is comfortably (so not just a small visit with dropdown wicks) is under 1.09 USD, but the first warning sign is breaking the wedge, second more major is breaking under the red support box.

I still expect upper movement, but first to put in a lower low now (one more leg down). The first orange 1-2-3-4-5 is a big "A" wave up as a leading diagonal. Now we are putting in the "B" wave down, within we having a yellow WXY, where the Y wave having an a-b-c, where the b wave had an a-b-c-d-e barrier/triangle setup, which broke down, and now putting in the last 5 wave move down within the c wave, which finishes the yelloy "y" wave, which finishes the big "B" wave down (or big wave 2 down, we do not know it yet if it will expand later to upper price targets around 2.60-3.20 USD level or not)

Nota

It is less likely that we started already tha orange wave 1, initially the impulsiveness was there, however after the pullback it is still seemingly consolidating, therefore I think the pink wave C still not looking finished, so I expect more downside before going up.

Also, the 21 day EMA, 15day SMA and 9 day SMA so far rejecting the upside movement, being resistance for now.
The RSI pulled back to a healthy level, and the MACD on the daily started to slow down to the downside.

If we pull back again to the lower segment, or to the red box (which for me seems likely, to completet the pink abc down-correction), I plan to add half of my remaining planned position, probably around ~1.14 .1.19

Trade ativo

Position added @ 1.12

Nota

We got the leg down, now the red c wave down looking more okay from a technical perspective; we also almost touched the bottom of the red support box (0.618 fib level from the bottom), so I still assume, this is either the "B" big wave / big wave 2 downcorrection.
Technicly we can count 5 waves as an ending diagonal. We so far had a little-ish fake breakout to the downside from the rising broadening wedge (but then jumped back so far).

So far the 9/15/21 day MA's are above us, and will act as a resistance later. Currently the 50/52 day SMA and the 0.618 fib level providing support, volume still low-ish.

What we would need to see now:
1) not to break comfortably the red support box to the downside
2) start to put in the impulsive wave 1 up
3) bullish volume to arrive.

We also left a huge gap at around 1.50-ish level.

Nota

Possibly we are forming a triangle on the lower timeframe, which usually occurs at wave 4, indicating that at least we gonna have one more down leg in this pink C wave down.

Problem is, then possibly we gonna drop below the orange wave 4 lows, meaning, our cup and handle getting invalidated then, and bears win...

Nota

Very weak action, triangle is under formation. Buyers and sellers are "negotiating". I rarely see such misery. If bulls wont be able to turn this around, and we drop below the red box, and then if we take out comfortobly the 1.05 USD price level, then possibly game over for SUNW, and bears successfully morphed this into just a huge wave 4 correction, before further drop, possibly below 0.5

Nota

Triangle broke to the downside, maybe started to put in the last count down.

Nota

Even weaker actions then yesterday overall, chances dissolving rapidly that bulls will be able to turn this around. The last leg down does not seems finished, in fact for me it seems we have a 1 count down only out of the 5 (3&5 min timeframe).

Parcitcly we are 3 pips away from death as far as I see, that would indicate, new lows possibly coming as I mentioned.

Bulls where are you????

Nota

Aftermarket update: we have dropped below already to 1.04, the previous cup and handle is invalidated. Congrats for the bears!!!
This analyzis is therefore possibly will not work out anymore, prep for a bigger drop I would say. There are 5-10% chance this could be turned around, but usually theese are not working out. I will still keep track of the price actions.

There is a huge chance now this is going on:

Meaning, this moveup possibly was just an overall wave 3 with an abc, and now 5 waves down incoming (90% chance)

Nota

I do expect to finish the orange wave 3 to the downside at around ~0.99-0.97 USD, which should be followed by a wave 4 correction to the upside.

Nota

Mid-day update:
There is a chance, bulls trying to turn this around for the bullish scenario still (even though we dropped quiet deep).
If we break 1.26 and 1.28, then we do not drop below 1.05, chances high it is turning around!!!

Nota

Mid-day update2:
So far price was unable to break through 1.26&1.28, in fact price reacting nicely to wave 4 retracement(orange) at the green resistance box, so far it is "textbook".
Now, if price is able to stop and turn around in the yellow drawed box, it is still having a second chance.

Nota

So far no evidence of turning around to the upside, also we have only 3 counts up, and now pulling back seemingly.
The 21 / 15/ 9 day MA's rejecting upward movements so far, also the 0.382 wave 4 pullback acted textbook (green box).

If bulls want to turn this around, they have a slim chance, for that price should not fall below 1.06, because that would suggest (90%), new lows coming, and then falling below 1.00 USD would suggest we gonna at least visit the 0.92 USD levels (95%), where chances becoming extremely slim (~5%) that bulls will be able to turn this around.

For chances to grow step by step:
1) we need a 5 count up, before putting in a 3 count down
2) we need to comfortably take out the previous swing high (not just a wick) at 1.25
3) we need to take out 1.32
4) we need to take out 1.37

RSI on the daily following paralelly so far the falling trendline (not a good sign)
MACD selloff slowing down (that is a good sign)

Trade ativo

1k shares added for accumulation purposes @1.01

Nota

Moment of truth coming soon!
daily MA's (15/21/9/51/52 are squeezing in), volume is falling though, watch for breakout in any direction!

Nota

Huge ongoing fight, trying to decide which way to go (put in the 5 huge big wave down to possibly under 0.5, OR have the turnaround and start 5 count up with a wave 1)

Important would be for the bull case now not to drop below 1.05.
So far volume is missing.

Nota

Mid-day update:
I have adjusted a bit the falling wedge, but it showing more and more weakness. Volume is fluctuating, and whenever starting to pick up, sellers gain the upper hand.
We are starting to run out of time for the turnaround (IF bulls want that), and also starting to loose ground, currently being on the low-end of the consolidation.

If it wants to turn around, it is the time. Otherwise chances extremly high, new lows coming if we lose 1.06/1.05

Nota

SUNW closed miserably weak again. We have lost so far the 50day MA's which was one of the last resort. Seemingly the falling wedge will break to the downside.
If it happens, and we drop below 1.06, chances are 95% bulls wont be able to save this, and probably we gonna make a huge head and shoulders pattern as well, and then I would say the current wavecount (very bearish) will stay in effect.

All the moving averages are above us, each one of them will act most likely as a resistance as well.
MACD starting to accelerate to the downside, RSI is falling back as well.

Nota

Game over I think. I will not update anymore this spread.

Trade fechado: stop atingido

Nota

With today's unexpected move I give 1 more chance for SUNW.
Be aware, the cup and handle IS invalidated. And we DO HAVE a huge head and shoulders (bearish).
So what needs to happen now:
1) We CANNOT drop below 0.99 USD
2) On the pullback, the small fib level box for the upcoming pullback MUST hold (I need to adjust it as price evolves)
3) We need to take out the orange wave 4 (currently the bearish case in the charts) @1.25
4) We need to regain 9/15/21/50-52 day MA's
5) Once the pullback happened to the small box, we must go up in 5 waves (as a wave 3 then) minimum to 1.32, preferably higher, but I need the pullback bottom to calculate the target.

If the pullback stops in 3 counts now, I will jump back to the trades. (I still have my accumulation purpose amounts). Until then SUNW needs to prove itself.

Nota

Not convincing so far, issue is, we only have now 3 wave(3count) to the upside, I am unable to count clearly 5 count, and we already pulling back. If price turns around at 1.05 putting in 2 more count to the upside, taking out the previous high, and then do a pullback again, then maybe it is going to work out. Just maybe.

Nota

Price reacted nicely on the 0.5 fib level (small orange support box), and in a 3 count pullback as I can see, which is needed, however we was not able to fullfill the other criterias so far. We need now 5 waves up, and to take out each previous swing highs, very important one being at 1.25 USD, regain the upper resistance level comfortably (1.18), then take out the 0.5 upper fib level comfortably (1.30 USD), then the 0.786 (1.49) comfortably, so a lot of work for SUNW.

I am still not convinced.

Nota

Pre-market update:
we do have now technicly a 5 wave move to the upside; this could be a small wave i (yellow) to the upside, and a local bottom, now in order to this for be "bullish" if price is not going now higher (it could), then a 3 wave pullback should follow and price should not drop below the 0.768 fib level (smaller orange support box).

If in deed we are still in a bullish scenario (i have many doubts) however, that would mean big wave 1 (upside) and long, big wave 2 (to the downside down to ~0.96USD) are ready and we are starting the 3rd wave to the upside, so we should witness fast, impulsive movements soon.

It is far from a guareente though as I mentioned; this could easily be just a wave 4 with an abc, or morphed into something other bearish scenario, so be aware.

Nota

We might developing a so called "leading diagonal" so I have added support boxes (smaller orange one). Be aware if this is the 3rd wave up starting, we might have shallow pullbacks, so I have added the 0.382 fib level as well as possible pullback/turnaround zone.
We need some more price action, but if I take into consideration the pre/aftermarket hours movement as well, wavecounts SEEMINGLY overlapping, and possible forming a rising wedge as either the wave 1 up in the 3rd wave, OR we are just creating the bigger wave 4 pullback for the bearish case.

Nota

Wavecount and box updated.
We was evolving in 3 count moves to the upside as I can see, possibly we have put in now the white wave (i), and soon should come down in 3 waves to form the white wave (ii). It is very important that the support box should hold, and after the 3rd leg down, in an impulsive way we should go up rapidly (if we do have the bullcase). Price should hold 1.03, meaning we should not drop below in a consistent way, and if a wick goes under, definetely cannot break the 0.97 USD levels!!! If it does... this is just a correction to the upside before dropping further and further.

Nota

Adjusted according to price action, support box updated. Note we have a gap @ 1.14, I would not rule out that one will be filled in the white wave (ii).

Technicly I can count 5 waves up, we got an extension. If we do not come down to the support box, and make a new high, then possibly it is the yellow wave v extension.

On the hourly we have a crossover on the MACD, diverged, and put in one negative bar, RSI starting to point downwards, indicating a drop/pullback. IF indeed this is the bullish scenario, then it is still normal, we need that wave (ii) to the downside in 3 counts. I will add there some position , with a stoploss @1.01 probably, just below the 0.768 fib level.

On the daily, we regained the 9/15/21/50-52 day MA's which is a good sign. On the daily MACD we converged and diverged to the upside, RSI pointing upwards, and have plenty of room to the upside. We hit the luxalgo sell indicator, but again, for a wave 2 pullback that is normal. (more important for intraday and swingtraders on the hourly/daily)

Nota

We are getting expanded upside wave, support box adjusted for that. As long as we stay in the purple channel, it can get still expanded. Remember, if this is a wave 3 to the upside in deed, pullbacks probably will be shallow.
Daily looking still strong (all MA's regained), only the hourly datas looking overextended to the upside; so If I would need to guess, in max 2 days we are getting the wave (ii) pullback.

Weekly MACD turned back bullish, trendlines coming up again, but still below the ground level. (it will need several weeks for that) Weekly RSI sloping up, just below the 50 level, but pointing upwards again.

Nota

Very strong day, currently all the moving averages has been defeated, even the 180&200 day MA's. We took out the previous high as well, and definetely moving in a rapid way so far.

I have recounted the waves with the possible shallow pullbacks, I believe we are in the white wave (iii) already within the orange wave 1, within the white wave (3) (or C and we gonna top, we do not know it yet), which could be part of a bigger A wave up, or wave 1 up (depending if the ultimate lows are in for this year or not).

MACD and RSI on the daily looking extremely strong for now. I think we have started a wave (iv) pullback, but remember, we kind of expect shallow pullbacks only. I have added a support box for the wave (iv) pullback if needed.

Nota

Seemingly we are forming a kind of a triangle which suggests wave iv.
Pullback fib support area adjusted (green box).
Once it is finished, I would expect one more leg up possibly (very rapid movement, hard to count), and then a an orange wave 2 pullback. So far, I have added support fib area (orange fib box) as well, but it will be needed to adjust once wave 5 top is in (maybe it is already in?)

Nota

Just a possibility, I am currently trading on this basis:

Nota

seems wave (v) is in, and orange wave 1 finished, and that we are going down to orange wave 2. Big orange support box is in effect.

Nota

Extremely volatile day, possibly we put the wave 1 top in, and immediately reversed; during the day we had a ~24% drop which is extreme; suggesting we are already in the wave 2 down, which will possibly consist an abc. I believe therefore we are forming the a wave down still, will be followed by a b wave up correction, and a final c wave drop. Support box added, I have also marked the 0.382 fib level, so far price is reacting to that. Also on that level we find the 200day MA, which price was unable to close above (bad sign).

Also we have a huge red rejection candle, an extremely big one, suggesting downside coming (wave2).
How deep it could pull back, we do not know it yet, technicly it can go all the way down to 0.768 fib level, even could sip under it, so probably the best technique is scaling in - I will follow that.

We do have structural support at ~1.64, 1.53, 1.43 (which is the golden ratio on the fib retracement), and at 1.31. 1.22 and at 1.12. I will use theese to scale in.

On the daily MACD we are having strong upside momentum, however the RSI is on the overbought level; possibly will cool down on the upcoming days (and retrace which is in alignment we are having the wave 2 pullback anyway)

Nota

Seemingly the pullback happening in an overall diagonal (falling wedge currently). I do not think the pullback is over, although reacting on the 0.382 fib level, but that would be quiet week for a wave 2. What could happen, that overall we are moving in 3 counts (abc) structures. So if price shoots up now, it COULD be, that we not gonna get 5 wave up, but 3 in an abc format.
Fib levels still relevant:

Nota

We have regained so far all the moving averages. Also, reacted twice on the 0.5 fib level. So far this is looking bullish. I have some doubts however; it is POSSIBLE the orange wave 2 have not finished yet, and what we witnessed today is just a B wave to the upside. In that scenario, we revisit the orange support box and put in a new low there. However, that would also mean quiet a deep pullback, which would indicate, we are moving overall in abc structures (3 count moves). In that scenario, we have to change probably the overall wavecounts. Still bullish though, but the upside not gonna be that straightforward.

Anyway, until not proven otherwise, I stay with scenario one. I have adjusted the boxes a bit.
The green drawings is the scenario 2 first few steps. (Abosuletly not proven yet, no evidence so far. It is more of a warning that other scenarios exists, and that is the other relevant one which could play out.)

Nota

I forget to mention, IF we are in scenario 1, that means in fact, that we are in the orange wave 3 of the white wave (3), of an overall primary wave 1 (or wave A, we do not know that yet). a 3rd wave of a 3rd will be very fast moving, with most likely shallow retracements, meaning, price action should rapidly evolve with small pullback zigzags to the upside now.

Nota

I have added the yellow trindline as a guide, as long as it is holding (small fakeouts are okay), we have further upside potential without any bigger pullback.

I have added a possible white wavecount suggesting the wave (1) and wave (2) is in. Price not looking very impulsive though. If we are in the orange wave 3 (as mentioned yesterday), then in a very rapid way we should reach now 2.20 as a minimum, followed by a small pullback, and then further upside.

So far, it is not looking like price wants to do that, so what is the other bullish scenario? (Scenario 2):
We are moving in 3 counts as a diagonal (abc within the waves). As it currently stands, I could make the case for that.

There is a 3rd bullish scenario, but so far it is not looking relevant. Currently I am still with scenario 1.

Nota

Trendline broken, we need to IMMEDIATELY JUMP BACK and target 2.20, and start an impulsive way up if we want scenario 1

Ordem cancelada

Something weird is going on, it might be an overall diagonal, seemingly this is not a 3rd wave up. Impulsiveness is missing from upside. Possibly we are dealing with a bigger abc, will see what will happen later, and re-evaluate the counts.

Nota

Todays movement opened up 5 different scenarios unfortunately. I have sold off everything just in time, so overall about ~75-80% profit, I wanted to protect that.

From the daily perspective huge rejection candle. We lost support again on the 200/180 day MA, and also the 9 day is crossed heavily (bad sign). the 21 and 50 still below us, and probably will provide support, sloping up slowly. Those needs time.

Overall I am bullish on SUNWORKS, but I do expect now a deeper pullback unfortunately. So what could going on with this movements?
We need to switch for now to scenario 2 (this is what I have warned you could happen a bigger abc pullback).
I still think overall it could be a bigger 1-2, 1-2 setup. So I am assuming now we are still in the orange wave 2 pullback, so the orange support box becoming relevant again. It is quiet clear at least an abc is forming, price was rejected in the red resistance boxes for a b wave top.

Scenario 2 - a):
We have finished the b wave to the upside, and now coming down in a c wave (hence the impulsiveness to the downside).

Scenario 2 - b):
We cannot see it yet, but the b wave is not yet finished, and actually it will make a big triangle as an abcde (yellow drawing). If we make now a new low, THEN possibly this subscenario can be dismissed.

Watch for the support levels!!!
Structural support: 1.53 USD, 1.44 USD, 1.30 USD
MA support: 1.51 USD, 1.32 USD
Fib supports: 1.41 USD, 1.21 USD.

Based on further drop and levels, I will scale back in slowly.
In either case, we must hold 1.21 as the 0.768 fib level, we cannot drop below that comfortably (meaning, a tick or two is allowed, but cannot stay under that long)
If we break that level, then other scenarios will open up, but there is no evidence so far it is happening.

Nota

No major event so far, it still can be both scenario. Overall we did have sideways movements. Remember- scenario 1 is already out of the window, and we have now scenario 2-a and scenario 2-b.

Just wanted to share you scenario 3 (as I mentioned the price movement opened up different other possibilities), which is the next most likely after scenario 2-a and b.

In this one we are overall moving in a huge diagonal; does NOT change though the support levels drasticly. It would be a very early phase trying to "assume" out this one, but just in case I have added a possibility for the diagonal (wedge). More or less it is also correlating the 0.768 fib level from our orange support box.

Remember, so far this is NOT the scenario we are following as it has no evidence yet.
It is STILL suggesting upward momentum, just as a huge diagonal.

Nota

Scenario 2 - b) is 99% chance out of the possibilities.

Seemingly for now it is following scenario 2 - a)
What I can see, is that therefore the red circle c wave down has been started. We already in the support zone, and reached the minimum pullback expectations.
Be aware, the red circle c wave down does not seems finished, So far we have a possible 1-2, and currently in the 3rd wave down. At least one more up, and then a deeper pullback we should expect.

However, if now it immediately turns around and starting an impulsive wave up, it CAN be still valid, then this whole pullback is not an abc, but a wxy. My strategy is scaling back in slowly, remember!

Nota

So far following through the scenario 2-b. Seemingly we should still have a small upcorrection and a new leg down, as the red circle c wave expanding to the downside. Huge support sitting however below us, hence the hesitation; lets see if the last wave down can evolve, or it will be truncated maybe unable to go down more.

Trade ativo

Small position 1 added (5%)

Nota

So far price action is doing what it supposed to do in our primary scenario.
Seemingly we are going in the ending diagonal for the red circle c wave. Also reaching optimal buy zone, where the risk-reward is getting favourable. I will see whats gonna happen on monday, and contunie to scale-back in most likely.

I assume we have about one more new local-low to come; the 50/52 moving average is coming at 1.34, so it will be interesting if it pulls back, maybe even sips under, but if it will be pushed up.

Overall no unexpected movement, I consider this just a pullback to to the choppiness, and also no sign of any major impulsive price action to the downsie so far.

Trade ativo

Small position 2 added @ 1.30

Trade ativo

Small position 3 added @ 1.26

Nota

On the micro-level we do have only 3 counts up and down, suggesting one more low incoming. One possible target is in the green box to have the lows.

It is also possible, lows are in, and we gonna move up in a diagonal 3-3-3-3-3 structure, hence the choppiness and the 3 counts only, but that is a bit unreliable.

Nota

Pre-market update:
As expected we are getting one more low (meaning one more wave down), the challenge is this is quiet ugly now, we have went down to 1.08 USD, dropped over 20%.

Our primary scenario got invalidated almost, but buyers stepped in (extended trading ours, mostly institutions I assume). On the bigger scale we had the 0.618 fib support sitting at 1.11, also we have structural support at 1.08 USD where buyers are waiting, and it was able to push back up the price so far to 1.23 USD.

I will keep still the primary count until not proven otherwise.

Nota

It is possible we have started the first wave up, I have added a small yellow support fib box for the possibly upcoming pullback for the second wave.

Nota

Probably I will need to recalculate the waves; news just came out that SUNW doing a direct offering of 1.00 USD per common share. Now taking into fundamentals into consideration, this means most likely we will drop to that levels.... Lets see the upcoming 1-2 day what will be the effect.

If its dropping down there from here, that means we need to switch scenario to the one which I highlighetd several days/weeks ago, could play out (huge diagonal movement). So just be aware!!!

Nota

So I have checked the possibilities meanwhile for the bullish case

Scenario 1 (our primary which we follow now, till proven otherwise):
We have a 1-2 and an other 1-2 setup

Scenario 2 (our fallback scenario):
We are moving in a huge diagonal in 3counts (abc-abc-abc-abc-abc), that is very hard to follow but I will try if it turns out we need to switch to that one later.
Roughly it would look like this, BUT there is no evidence so far:

Nota

Boring day, moving sideways; based on the price action it is possible we are forming a triangle in the small wave (2). We are still following scenario 1; with the wick down, the possible downside movement for scenario 1 was preatty much maxed out. small orange support box still valid, and for me it seems unfinished. this wave (2) consists either an abc or a wxy pullback.

We are squeezing together, the ascending huge yellow trendline(s), and the falling/descending small yellow trendilne.
We might not get a "resolution" this week.

I do not expect prices to full under 1.15, or under 1.12, but in case of 1.12 I would be very suspicios already. That means, a wick down with a fast turnaround IS possible under 1.15, but comfortably (where prices stay under for a while) we should not break it.

Nota

Pre-market update: during the extended hours, price got rejected on our falling small yellow trendline (channel/wedge top), and dropped down again to the 0.887 fib level, reacted perfectly on that. (Unregular fib support). With this move, IF in deed this is the small yellow (2) pullback, it was maxed out. Good thing is, price immediately jumped back just to the 0.786 fib level, and now dancing around 1.14.

So far it is still fitting to our primary scenario now, but getting challenged.
If in deed this was the yellow wave (2) pullback, and we are having a 1-2 1-2 setup, this would mean now we should start very soon the yellow (3) of the 3rd wave of a 3rd wave, which SHOULD be very agressive to the upside. If we are not getting that first signs today, very latest early monday (OR we get a choppy price action, more downside movement), this would already signal a warning to us, that it is overall not a 1-2, 1-2 setup; but a huge diagonal evolving. (scenario 2 now)

Nota

Mid-day update: just a headsup, 4h,2h,1h chart divergence is building. Bulls try now to make a breakout, lets see if it succeeds.

Trade ativo

Small position (all together now 20%) @ 1.16

Nota

Mid-day update:
Not too clear but seemingly we are forming a triangle on the micro level, suggesting a b wave (cannot be a 4th wave), which would indicate one more low is coming. Just be aware. If in deed it plays out, possibly we will need to switch to the other scenario (huge diagonal). Lets see...

Nota

Not looking good for SUNW. Negative volume is starting to pick up, the 0.618 fib level tested 4x times already, and seemingly breaking down. Daily RSI/MACD starting to pick up some more negative momentum. Either we turn around immediately (maybe afterhours?), or at least one more low coming. Chances growing constatnly we need to switch to the other scenario.

Nota

Recieveing a lot of DM about questions regarding trendlines, huge wedges, if lows are in or not, etc. etc.

I thought it is important to share the big picture.
First of all we are in a lifetime downtrend. Now, prices hit the 0.768 retracement back in 2020, SEEMINGLY making the all-time lows.

From there we went up in an ugly "impulsive" way, either its an a wave up, OR a wave 1 up (I can count it as a 5 way up..). Either way, we would expect worst case a huuuuuge c wave up now.

Now, my issue is:
1) we falled back under the 50 day MA.
2) we pulled back too deep, and our 1-2, 1-2 setup to the upside is heavily challenged; in fact if we pull back now under 1.06 USD then I cannot count it comfortably as a 1-2, 1-2
3) we now break the yellow ascending trendline to the downside, BUT it could be a false breakout. Still, not looking good.
4) on the lower timeframe sell volume is starting to pickup
5) unfortunately we fall back into the huge blue falling wedge, which is... usually suggests, that it was a wave 4 in a diagonal top, before a big wave 5 coming to the downside, but again it is not 100%, but USUALLY signaling that.

Now, we are waiting for the earnings, report and investor calls from SUNW on monday (I saw it several times it got postponed.. but SHOULD be coming monday, and I think the call is scheduled for 2 weeks from now.) The preliminary datas are.. preatty bad(~35-38 million revenue vs. above 50 expected.), but lets see if its true or not. Also keep in mind, SUNW throwing over millions and millions of new shares for institutions at 1USD. We are trading above that. So actually, now I expect preatty much it will hit under 1USD, if not deeper. Lets see in the upcoming days what happens.

So if it drop under 1.06, I will switch to the secondary scenario, where we move in a diagonal. In that, we should not break the 91 cent level. Be aware though, in that scenario it is getting extremely risky it could break down further.

Under that, it will becoming likely, that the huge downside correction in deed not finished, and we are going down way more. And here is the big picture: in that scenario, likely the pink circle i-ii-iii-iv-v coming into play, with the huge orange fib support box coming into play again. Challenge is (and also my "hope"), that it was preatty much maxed out in april, 2023, so we should not drop under, but if we do visit the 0.45-0.55 USD levels.

And then the next challenge immediately coming into effect: at those price levels, chances growing very very rapidly, that we do NOT have the all time lows in place, we broke to the downside with that price a huge triangle as well, and the likelyness it is going down to goodnight/graveyard levels is growing tremendiously (possibly under 20-25 cents, in fact the next support level is at 0.09 USD, but I guess then the company going bankrupt anyway.)

The reason I am sharing with you the bear case / more pullback cases, because if that happens, it will likely trigger a chain of events. This just show now how critical it is, to have either the 1-2, 1-2 NOT invalidated now, OR if its, then in our scenario 2 price should not break 91 cents. Otherwise SUNW would have a way bigger problem, then only the stock is going down.

So far, I do not think the selloff has finished unfortunately, no sign of reversal yet, in fact datas are pointing/signaling to downside. Currently we already dropped again to 1.10 USD aftermarket hours, which challenging now heavily our primary scenario.

Nota

Pre-market update: new local low has been made @ 1.06, price was immediately pushed back up just to the 0.618 bigger fib level. Technicly this still could be a 1-2, 1-2 setup, it is possible. Is it probable now? Not really... only if we now do some kind of swingshoot move to the upside in a very impulsive way. Chances now in the favour it is being a huge diagonal.

Nota

Warning! Earning reports out, horrible results!!!

Trade fechado manualmente

Nota

Possibly more lows are coming, sell volume is picking up again (which is not a suprise after horrible earnings):

I have switched to the other scenario; I have closed half of my trades already. Waiting for more confirmation.

Nota

small grey wave (iv) either in or in the making, I do expect one more low. If price however break the 91 cents level, then I would say possibly it is game over for SUNW, and we need to swtich to a bearish scenario.

Trade ativo

Mid size position added @ 0.94

Nota

Be prepped, on the micro level i can count only 3 waves in the last (v) wave down, so maybe one more pushdown coming. I can imagine a scenario where we maybe wick down to the 0.887 levels and then turn around, but that is kind of the last resort, and that one is heavily unreliable already!!! If that is broken, 99% chance its game over.

Nota

Wave grey (3) within wave gray (v) of yellow wave c of wave 2 seemingly finished, I am just missing a small wave grey (5) to play out. It seems that will be the decision point, because it has a challenge not to drop deep from here; price is reacting so far nicely on the 0.768 level (0.91-0.92).

So either we get a truncated wave and not dropping further, or dropping fast with a turnaround imminent, or dropping down but not deeper than the 0.887 levels and turn around fast (on the daily later it should look like a wick down). Also it would touch and correlate the big green ascending trendline, we also have the yellow descending price channel bottom trendline. We also do have the huge fib support just around at the same level as the 0.887. Also at those level we have a previous channel support from May, 2022

So we have plenty of structural support coming. So if it wants to turn around it could. Question is, will the bulls want the remanining bull case, or they dont care.

Nota

On the micro level, our grey wave (4) took out the grey wave (1) lows, meaning this is not a normal 5 count to the downside. So either it is morphing to a diagonal in a wave (v), which suggests currently it is just the wave (2) high actually), or it was in deed a wave (4) but it is too chaotic to count on the very micro level. Either way, our 0.786 fib level provided support so far.

0.887 is still in tact as a last resort.

Nota

One possibility based on the price action on the micro-level:

Trade ativo

small position 1 added @ 0.91

Nota

Seemingly the very small orange wave 4 near topping (if following our primary scenario). I do expect one more, hopefully "small" dropdown to finish the orange small wave 5. Sell volume starting to pick up on the micro level.

Nota

Probably the orange wave 4 (small) has topped, likely starting orange small wave 5.

Nota

Price action invalidated the micro counts. This is something else. We need a 5 count move up, and then a 3 down in order to confirm anyway the lows are in.

The current upside movement is only a 3 count move so far. Waiting for further datas.

Nota

Counts readjusted, in case it wants to turn around, this is one possible micro-count (not 100%). So far it is following nicely.

Nota

selloff slowing down, so far we have a 3 count to the upside, just be aware, microcounts always not too reliable. On luxalgo, stop shorting sign arrived. No "buy" sign yet though.

Daily RSI/MACD starting to sloping and curving back upwards, which could be a first good sign (far from confirmation), so both are converging, but not diverged yet.
0.768 seemingly respected so far, clearly price is reacting to it. We also break the trendline to the upside, which is also a first good sign, but far from confirmation.

Now, there is also one microcount which could allow one more drop in the bullish case, regardless, the 0.886 fib level (0.825 USD) still must be respected in that.
However there is a chance now for a turnaround. Lets see the upcoming days, I would expect a bit up and down, because we are putting in according to this scenario a small wave 4 and wave 5 to complete yellow (3), and then coming yellow(4) to the downside, and then yellow (5), and then we should get a 3 count bigger pullback. It is possible, it will create an inverse head and shoulders, keep in mind.

Trade ativo

Small position 2 added @ 0.9

Nota

Normal 5 count setup failed, it only has 3 count and now pulling back too deep for that.
I switch to the diagonal wavecount on the micro level therefore, lets give it a chance.

Nota

Warning! small fib level almost broken, and the lows almost invalidated.
On the micro level we have 5 waves down now within the yellow wave (2), therefore it cannot be a wave (2). Chances are high now, lows has not finished yet; be aware we also formed a small head and shoulders with the price target of 0.82-0.83 USD.

Nota

Bulls trying to push the price back up to above 0.91-0.92 to save the case.

Nota

Failed, structure invalidated; possibly we are in still the 5th wave down until the 887 big fib level is not broken.

Nota

Next possibility within still in our scenario 2 (upside case):

Nota

On the hourly chart, RSI already showing divergence (making higher highs), so far the RSI trendline to the upside respected. Price is making lower lows. One of that is lying.

On the daily chart, RSI starting to show a small divergence, but it will need more time.

Nota

So now we would like to see something like this in the upcoming trading days:

It is getting challenged now, the weekly datas not looking too good for now. Tomorrow we should close a bit higher in order not to trigger weekly "selloff".

Nota

Warning, hourly RSI started to break down. Technicly however we do have the neccessary wavecounts to the downside to fulfill our scenario.

Nota

Orange wave 5 extending. The likelyness this is going to work out as a "bull case" is weakening. Weekly RSI /MACD turned bearish, altough it could still be "saved".

I am quiet sure this orange last few wave moves is a diagonal; question is if it will be an ending diagonal for our white wave (2), OR our yellow c wave morph into a wave 3 to the downside, putting in later a wave 4 correction and then a 5th big wave down (bear case). We are really dancing on slim ice now.

RSI and MACD is converging, trying to diverge, meaning showing upside momentum should come. Price on the other hand making lower lows. It is in imbalance, volume is missing, meaning, a big move will happen to one direction, and either price will align with indicators, or the indicators breaking down further.

I have added a few fib levels where that orange wave 5 should react.

Trade ativo

Small position 3 (together 15%) added @ 0.82

Nota

Okay, so now we do have the neccessary wavecounts AND meanwhile the assumed orange wave5 has reached its usual target (0.618 extension). This is correlating with the bigger 0.887 fib level, which is so far holding. Also, we do have structural support at around 0.81-0.83. Lets see what happens.
IF drops lower, I would say chances drop to about 10% it will work out as a bullish case

If it drops lower, then the last count down could extend to either the 0.786 downlevel or to the 1:1 level. The 1:1 level will be also structural support from several month ago, and also we do have the ascending green trendline.
If drops to this level, chances drop to about 3-5% this will work out.

Nota

Second usual target (0.786) level reached. We have also arrived to the green ascending trendline, now it is gonna be interesting.

Be aware, sell volume is growing. If that green trendline is broken, possibly we are going to the graveyard; last resort is the 1:1 extenstion. Counts adjusted with the extension wave.

So far there is no sign of turnaround.

Nota

This is the most accurate I can come up with now:

If we are dropping below 0.77USD, then 99% chance it is GAME OVER, and then possibly:

Nota

We need to turn around NOW, if bulls want anything to happen. Moment of truth has arrived.
Challenge is, sell volume is picking up again...

Nota

Last possible target has reached (1:1). Unfortunately greend ascending trendline is broken to the downside. It can be a fakeout (false breakout), however now, immediately, without hesitation now has to do a slingshot move then to the upside, jumping above 85 cents as a bare minimum. Like NOW.

Remaining chance is about 1-3% currently.

Trade ativo

Some reaction happening, I am taking the risk, with a tight stop loss.
Medium size position added (25%) @ 0.78

Nota

Very ugly day, generally the solar-industry is going down, dragging along of course SUNW as well.
The mentioned slingshoot move tried to happen, some buy volume has arrived, but was very very weak, sellers pushed it back down.

Only positive side was price was just slightly pushed back up to the huge, multi-year related 0.785 big fib level, we are right on that line. If we loose that one, and no slingshoot move will arrive without hesitation (no sign as of yet), then I am afraid this wont be an abc pullback, but just a 3rd wave of a bigger 5 wave down, meaning, any upside from that point likely will be just a short-lived upside correction.

On the daily, the 9 MA rejected us again, we are far below the 21day, 50/52 day, and 200 day.
Daily RSI showing negative momentum wants to pick up again, volume is missing.
Of course theese are indicators only (meaning showing datas based on price action with delay), but a telling sign, MACD also trying to converge and diverge back up, but so far sellers are stronger, and chances are very high now, it will fail and gain momentum to the downside.

The weekly so far looking really horrible, huge sell signal, MACD converged and diverged to the downside. It is showing higher lows on the RSI, but still very weak, and can easily take several more weeks and more downside IF it can turn back up, UNLESS bulls shows up. Seemingly they do not care as of this moment.

Nota

No impulsiveness still. Now, on the very micro level, includng ETH, i can force-count a very small 5 wave up as a diagonal, but being extremely fragile, and could break down anytime. This would be the white wave(1).

If it breaks down, game over, if not, it COULD look like this (but not a must!):

Nota

Fragile micro-count invalidated. Sell volume picking up again. Descending trendline also broken so far to the downside. Remaining chance currently: 0.5%

Nota

Someone asked me in DM is there any chance still to have the bullish scenario, and if so, what is the confirmation it is happening?

So first of all, right now, some buy volume arrived but still failed... bad sign. We broke the green trendline, we broke the 0.786 fib level, and we also broke to the downside the descending trendline. Weekly datas looking very bearish. We almost took out the many month ago lows, and chances are we will at this point.

So is there any remaining chance, and possible to turn around? Yes, like 0.5%.
Is it probable? No.
If we now take out the current lows, chances drops to 0.1%.

So what needs to happen now, to have the bullish scenario? This:

1. break out from to upper descending trenlinde to the upside with a big volume, AND jump back above the ascending green trendline. There will be huge resistances, so be prepared.

2. We need a clear 5 count move up, with a 3 count pullback.

3. We need to comfortably take out 1.21 USD, and not with only a wick, but consistently.

If all theese happens, then chances jump back up to 50%. Then I can calculate a support area which cannot be broken. From this point this is a very long way to go for "confirmation".

Nota

New bull try incoming. So far it is far from enough.

Nota

Bulls trying to turn this around as a last resort, so far I would say very far from convincing.

On the 1m chart I can make a case again for a "forced" very small 5 count up, which can be a wave orange 1 to the upside OR just a small a wave up. Then had a pullback, and a bit stronger move to the upside again, which bulls try to make as an orange wave 3, and now again a pullback. So their plan is to morph it into a very very small 5 wave up (orange), BUT BE AWARE, it is currently only a 3 wave move up yet still, AND extremely fragile, not convincing yet.

Why?
Because even if they succeed to create a 5 wave (orange) move up, it COULD still be just a bit bigger "a" wave up from an abc, and shorters might step in, just waiting to make some liquidit grab. So whenever the (IF) orange waves are ready, It then cannot drop below now the 0.782 level once we calculate the support areas.
We need way bigger volume (buy), and need to create at least the white (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) waves, AND all previous 3 points need to be met.
I still have my positions, but was not adding anymore because I am just not convinced.

Nota

Whohoho that rejection! Microcount topped in 3 waves, so its an abc as I warned. Lows taken out, and on the micro level we also have 5 waves down...

Trade fechado: stop atingido

Game over 99.99%

Nota

To be fair, I gave back roughly 85-86% of the profit made with the previous runup. Roughly, overall I closed this therefore only with ~10% profit.

This is 99.99% now, was a big ABC upcorrection, and now going down either to finish a huge wave 5 to the downside, OR to finish the big wave 3 to the downside, and then wave 4 and wave 5 to the downside making all time new lows. 99.99%

Nota

The remaining "bullish" scenario is extremely fragile as well, due to the fact that we already pulled back/preatty much maxed out the 0.786 big fib retracement.

Possibly this: and the 0.887 fib level MUST hold then (down around 0.5 USD). I would assume though it will take a while to get there from now on.

Nota

One possible route, including some wave 4 upcorrection:

Nota

Just a short update:
Possibly we are starting now the wave (iv) upside correction. Not guaranteed though, but we broke out of the descending channel, so far we had 3 waves down. Seemingly this is a small 5 wave move up, which could be then an "a" wave up out of the abc (or the wxy), red resistance is there, which should not be broken to the upside.

Nota

Short update:
Sell volume accelerating again, waves expanding and seemingly accelerating to the downside. I have adjusted the red resistance box for the wave (iv), it still has not started seemingly.
Not looking good, I would not be suprised if even the 0.887 levels gonna be broken.

SUNW having soon a shareholder meeting/votes, one topic will be stock split, the other one possible dilution. Both are bearish just for the file.

Nota

A short update: We have bounced twice now on the 0.887 level. Make no mistake it is not a bullish indicator, just that the level is somewhat at least recognized and respected by the mass.

It is a decision point now again, primarly, if we now get at least an upside correction as an abc(or wxy) into the red small resistance area, or just a short bump and moving down further.

Now, on the micro-level we have a 5 count structure to the upside, which potentially could be a short wave 1 (or wave a), now pulling back into the very small red support box, and if it is holding, it can "rally" (correct) into a 3rd wave up. if that one is reaching the 1.618 extension, then there is a chance it can make a wave 4 and then a wave 5 maybe, but still I believe it would be just an overall a wave from an abc.

IF then it is not going down in an impulsive way, but instead doing corrective movement to the downside, and then making new, motive-ish highs in 5 counts, AND breaking through comfortably 0.97 USD, then I start to watch potential upside/bull case, AND if it then breaking through comfortably 1.14 USD, then it has a good chance, the selloff has been finished. Chances though extremely low now.

Nota

We got the impulsive shootup to resistance, unfortunately though it is just a 3 count move again. Price was unable to put in a healthy wave 4, and going down also impulsively. Can it go still up further soon? Yes, BUT we have so far an abc to the upside. Now, possible that completes just an A wave, IF price now able to hold the 53 cents level in a 3 count move as a small b wave, from there then we can get a 5 count move as a c wave to the upside.

That could complete our wave 4. From there we have to see what happens, normally i would expect a bigger one more swing low possibly in 3 counts. If however criterias from previous posts gonna be met, each by each, one by one, then we have a chance for a "bullish" case, which is right now very slim still.

Nota

Seemingly yellow wave (iv) is in, and now coming down in yellow wave(v). I highlighted one possible scenario.

Possible that we are putting in now a diagonal to finish off that wave (v). then we SHOULD get a relief "rally" as a 3 count move to the upside, as an overall b wave, which is preatty much unpredicatble. And then we should get again 5 waves down.

This could take several weeks if not months. Once we have more data, and see a clear 5 wave up after all theese movement, and then a 3 count pullback we can think about a possible bottoming. Until then I would say it is remaining bearish.

Nota

I have added warning and "death" levels. Now, there is one slim chance, really SLIM. that if institutions (big players) wants to switch back it can maybe bottom/range/accumulate soon. I could make one case (witch is again unclear, I have to close one of my eyes and then still is just a maybe) where we can go up soon from here. BUT important the yellows wave (v) still NEEDS to bottom.

Seemingly, again, it is a diagonal, likel finishing soon. But only, if it is a diagonal. If we make two more swings lows, then forget this idea, which is the white route.

We need then 5 clear, impulsive wave up, with a 3 waves pullback. So far it has not happened, not even on the micro-level. Even if it happens on the micro-level that is just a first sign, but not a confirmation.

Nota

Warning 2 level (0.33 USD) has been reached. If bulls wants to show up, they HAVE TO do it now. So far, no sign of bottoming however, bullish divergences are deleted on RSI/MACD as well.

Nota

No clear sign of bottoming, BUT price has reached the second most common downtarget for a 5th wave, and reacted very very nicely so far.

Be aware, still no bullish divergence on the indicators, we lost all support of 9/21/50/52/180/200 day MA's.
Company call is scheduled for possibly stock split & dilution/cash raising.
Sell volume on the higher timeframes are still not showing yet potential for change.

Also, for a "trustable" big wave 2 pullback we dropped already way too deep, so any movement to the upside CAN happen, but fragile from analisys perspective at this point.

On the micro-counts what we have so far again is a 3 count move to the upside, very far from convincing. We NEED clear, nice, impulsive 5 waves or at least a diagonal. We did not get any of theese yet.

I got several DM if the bottom could be in or not. Yes it could be in, could be not. At this point, withouth any sign (only a 5th target was reached, where we get a reaction) this is still like catching a falling knife, also, fundamentals not looking good. Enphase just fell ~20% in the past 2 days, today aftermarket dropped 14% again. And those are the industry leaders... So I would not recommend to trade it. Long term accumulation? Maybe.

Nota

Altough we broke out from the channel, unfortunately it just a 3 wave move so far, and seemingly going to fail...

it suggests that the yellow route to the downside STILL not finished, and that probably the yellow (5) is just about to start now. Problem is, again, we are already dropped way too deep to consider it a trustable count might arrive sometime to the upside. Falling knife so far still.

Nota

Just a warning: as I mentioned so far we have an abc (3 wave move) to the upside, with 3 down, and now it is still only a 3 wave move to the upside, which even it creates or expands to a 5 wave move, STILL could be just an expanded yellow wave (4) top!!!

Best case (bullish): it will be some kind of a diagonal in 3-3-3-3-3, but it is too early to tell. Ultimately as a somewhat good first sign would be to comfortably break above 66 cents.

Nota

Wants to break down further, suggesting that in theed the yellow wave (4) top was put in likely just a few days before. Falling knife.

Nota

Price down at 30 cents reacted exactly to "save the day", BUT it does not mean so far that we have bottomed. SUNW needs to prove extremely lot...

On one hand it had even worse earnings report and earning call than the previous one which was already a disaster. On the other hand no extreme selloff happened, which is some positive light, but very far still from a great sign.

If we do have a sustained break below 30 cents, then the yellow expand further down,likely to visit the 0.15-0.20 cents areas (give or take).

First somewhat good sign would be to break comfortably above 42 cents level and hold it. Until then no point speaking about a possible bottom unfortunately.

Nota

Reaching again the critical level, only 3 waves up, and sell volume starting to pick up again. So far the 30 cents level holding though. RSI and MACD starting to curve to the downside, converged, but not yet diverged on the daily/4hr.

Nota

Few DM's I have reached of the bigger picture, so let me show you a few possibilities, ASSUMING that SUNWORKS will not go bankrupt.

Eventually we have dropped below all time lows, therefore I made the white route the primary wavecount now. It suggests, that we are moving down in 5 waves in an overall huge multi-year diagonal. Now the last wave should be the longest, consisting therefore 3 huge wave -> (A) - (B) - (C) (or WXY).
We do have 3 somewhat big wave, but the problem is it is just not long enough, therefore it is highly probable that it is only the (A) wave. And we likely still in that, extensions given to the downside, but again, so far it is a falling knife syndrome. Once its done, we should get a (B) wave correction, and then again a last huge leg down, likely taking out this current lows(or whatever will be the lows) as well.

Alternatively(yellow) this cannot be anymore a 1-2 very bullish setup in its current form. HOWEVER. it can go up quiet a lot, in fact, tremendiously a lot but not as a 1-2 setup, since we made now alltime new lows, BUT as a huge C wave to the upside, suggesting we had a multi-year ABC to the downside which is just an A wave, now we are putting in the B wave, which undershoots (hence we dropped below the all time lows), and then a C wave coming to the upside. The challenge is then, B wave is very difficults, tricky, overshoots, undershoots, extremely hard to count and calculate. Remember, this is the yellow route.
Price can go down with an undershoot to even 0.05 USD and would still be valid, so again, falling knife, BEFORE a change.
It could be then a running flat:

Or it could be a expanded/irregular flat:

Several years to have it played out. in every case, and as you can see, we can still drop quiet a lot in terms of percentages, maybe not. Falling knife. Eventually at least a correction should happen sometime likely to the 0.7-1.1 USD as a minimum before more drop.

So this 3 scenarios are in play, white is the primary now unfortunately, while yellow has 2 scnearios, but so far it is the alternative.

Nota

We are attempting to have a breakout to the upside from the falling, wider purple channel (not the white channel!!!). On the very-micro level it has so far 3 counts up. We would need to push now a bit higher to take out the previous swing low, THEN we would have 5 counts up. Still would not be enough, but at least an early first sign, that bulls will try to turn it around, which might fail later.

Nota

Likely the last wave down started before at least a bigger upside correction. I think it is the 5th wave down, which either can be an impulse, or a more overlapping, choppy diagonal. I would somewhat expect to hit 22-23 cents as the primary target. If its not holding, next one will be 16-18 cents.

Nota

Okay, turnaround chance is starting now. I have sketched out a possible route, so far it is following it. On the micro level we have 3 micro count up, we need 5. Remember, we want to see 5 waves up, breaking above minimum 41 cents, and then a 3 wave pullback later.

Nota

Warning, dropping too fast, just today over 40% drop and in an impulsive way... Overall for me it seems only as a 3 wave up. It is possible, this is the full yellow (b) wave what we have witnessed.

Anyway, the orange fib box must hold for a reliable upwards movement further (against 24 cents)

Nota

A bit less reliable count, but I could count 5 waves in a way on the micro-level. I have adjusted a bit the orange support zone for that count, as it seems prica action (support&resistance) so far recognizing exactly that levels.

All scenarios are still valid, simply it is too early to tell which one is in play, ASSUMING (this is important) this is not going to bankrupt. Still the drop seems unfinished for me, at least I would expect one more swinglow, important would be not to drop comfortably and consistently below ~0.24 usd for the white route.

Then, even if it is the yellow route, we should see a bounce sometime I would say to around 75-80 cents levels. For the white to play out, we should break above the red resistance comfortably, before a pullback. Critical would be that 0.24 usd is holding for that!

Nota

White count getting challenged again...
Yellow gaining traction so far, where we might get the yellow c wave up, alternatively the runup was the full yellow (b) wave, and we started already the further downtrend. We should get some clarity in the upcoming few weeks.

Nota

Seemingly we are rolling over to the downside, although one critical fib level is still holding, but no sign so far of bottoming. Under 22 cents its likely breaking down further in 5 more waves.

Nota

white (1)-(2) setup to the upside has been failed and invalidated.
Next short-term target down: 0.14-0.16 usd (cents), primarly as the yellow b down. Alternatively this is still the white (i) -> (v) wave down, and that runup before was the wave (iv) to the upside. Would fit nicely as well.

Nota

Shorter-timeframe-update :

Nota

Longer-timeframe update:

For the longer frame, we either wait:
-yellow: 1-1 extension to about ~55-60 cents to be reached (3x return, before dropping down)

-white: arriving to roughly to the 16 cents, and possibly maybe to ~14-12 cents as the secondary target down first, THEN a bigger B wave up, likely targeting 80cents - 1.6 USD (we dont know it yet, too early), which could be a 5x-8x return in the mid-term.

Now, like I mentioned in one of my earlier post, IF (huge IF) this is the alternative route with the undershooting B wave, then there is a possibility it would go way higher (irregular flat option which can be ultimately a running flat or expanded flat). I would not hold my breath though, I mean it is likely at least several month if not years playout, also it is just way-way early to predict/tell, and expect anything.

Ultimately what I do now is scaling in as we drop lower, but small amounts, and very cautously. (~100-200 USD each weak, regardless of the price).

Nota

Generally speaking on the daily/weekly, the important moving averages (50/52/9 day and 21 day EMA) are rejecting price action again so far, ALSO RSI and MACD slowing down, converging, but not yet diverging. Might happen it crosses, might not, one slim positive sign is on the weekly timeframe we are making higher highs on the RSI, which CAN be somewhat bullish (if its not invalidated), signaling, that at least a local low could soon to be formed.

Ultimately from this point on, as it seems we are ranging between the white and yellow falling smaller trendlines, we want to see:
1) not to fall below the white falling trendline.
2) see some kind of bottoming structre (ending diagonal I could imagine yes, but again, too early)
3) either see to shooting up then to the yellow falling trendline OR in the case of yellow route, breakout to the top, hold, and go higher before any meaningful pullback happens.

And remember, this is all assuming, SUNW is not going bankrupt. They are dancing on a very very thin ice unfortunately.

Nota

No major change. Daily & weekly RSI/MACD have bullish divergence, but we could still get either 1 or 2 more swinglows before a more meaningfull "correction" like I mentioned beginning of january.

Nota

Still no major change. Meanwhile I tried to add some micro-count, with a possible WXY structure being ultimately an undershooting "B" wave (irregular flat), but just as I am writing the update, aftermarket hours it is already being challenged...

Nota

Warning:

Price action shifed gears towards to the downside. Price cut through even the possible white extensions on the 1:1 ratio (big ABC), on the 1.276, on the 1.382 like a knife on a butter. Heading fast to the 1.618.
We cut through also the smaller trendline to the downside.
We cut through so far on the last, big trendline which should have hold.

Price already at 0.08 !!!! USD.
Remember, when I said "assuming SUNW is not going to bankrupt"?
Well, yesterday evening 3 subcompanies (where SUNW is the owner 100%) already filed for chapter 11 (banktrupcy procedure).

Now chances are going dramatically to the high 90%'s that SUNW itself is going to have the same fate unfortunately. Just be aware. In the past ~5 years I saw only a handful of occasions where after chapter 11 a company restructured and was able to turn around its fate.

Nota

Sunworks itself is filed for chapter 11...
CEO has been resigned, board of directors resigned, all operation are ceased.
I think at this point I am closing down this idea.

99.9% it is fully game over for this company.
As market opens, I will see the price action and will slowly scaling out (as I was scaling in with small amounts.

Nota

Got a few DM about "How do you scale out?"
Well, I am swinging now, but it is very dangerous. Meaning adding on lows, selling on micro-count tops (Made a few hundred USD already to compensate or balance the losses).

Slim chances any of theese now playing out, but I am fine if not. I dont think we have seen the lows yet:

Nota

We MIGHT get one more push , but absolutely no guarantee.

I am heavily scaling out now, balancing out what I have added at the lows (0.04-0.06)

Nota

That one more swing high has just arrived, pre-market hours. Still, it is a 3 wave move, so I would not rule it out, an other smaller wick-like high is arriving, but I would not hold my breath.

If by some magic it goes way higher now.... thats just because of branktrupcy/de-listing from exchange madness, before taking it off from nasdaq

Nota

Sold out completely. With the re-balancing around the lows my total average of 0.13 made about ~45-47% profit all together :D.

At 0.19 and 0.2 I have entered to short with a small amount.

Trade ativo

Scaling out from short

Nota

I am also scaling in for long, I took a huge risk now, I do not advise it, really highly risky.

Idea is, alternatively we might see a push to the upside as the yellow ALT wave iv.

tommtajlor

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