STEEMUSD Near Future Forecast

8 de abr. de 2018

Note: this is an abbreviated version of my analysis on Steemit: steemit.com/steem/@galoisconnection/steemusd-near-future-forecast.

Observations

• Waves 1 through 4 of both impulses fell below the 0.768 levels of their respective Fib retrace
  
• Waves 5 fell in the 0.768 – 0.618 region
  
• Waves 5 were repelled by the top of the channel
  
• Both corrections started with the top of the triangle around wave 5 of the prior impulse and the bottom between waves 3 and 4
  
• Waves A, B, and C all fell below the 0.768 level
  

Projections

• The C wave of the current correction will pierce the bottom of the triangle around April 27
• Price will rebound from the bottom of the channel around May 13
• Price will continue to be trapped in the triangle until around May 17 – 18
• Waves 3, 4, and 5 of a third impulse will respectively touch the 0.5, 0.768, and 0 levels of the second Fib retrace around June 1, June 29, and August 20 – 21
• Wave 5 will touch the top of the channel again around August 20 – 21

Confirmation

• The MACD is currently in good form. We could see the histogram briefly turn negative, so long as it stays in the wedge (white trendlines), which could correspond to the move below resistance at the end of wave C, but we’d like to see a bullish divergence in the form of continued upward movement from the trend lines as confirmation and a quick recovery.
  
• The Stochastic RSI is currently heading further into overbought territory, so a downturn could be impending, confirming the the C wave down.
  

Please keep in mind that these are only approximate projections based on historical patterns, that what’s past is prologue, and that these forecasts will hold true until they don’t, at which point they will evolve with market conditions.

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Disclaimer

The above analysis is based on reasoned conjecture and opinion, and is intended solely for educational or informational purposes. It is not intended to be, does not constitute, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or instrument, or to participate in any transaction or trading activity. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice. The above is derived from information believed to be reliable; however, we make no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information provided. We accept no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided as is, with no warranties, and confers no rights.

12 de abr. de 2018

Nota

We've broken out of the magenta triangle; however, the Stochastic RSI is now even more overbought, so we might not have enough force to keep us moving upward in the short term. Consider three different scenarios:

1) Price moons from here. This seems unlikely given the Stochastic RSI, but isn't impossible.
2) Price could stay flat, or even slide down the top of the triangle, until closer to the projected breakout date of May 17 – 18, giving the Stochastic RSI time to cool off. This seems plausible.
3) Price could fall back inside the triangle. This also seems plausible, plus a failed breakout could also precipitate the break below support projected for April 27.

Personally, 3 is my preferred scenario, because it would give us time to build more momentum, and would shake out more weak hands. Let me know which scenario you think is most likely in the comments.