looking for 417.50-421 correction for X leg retest

417.5-420 looks to be correction leg (B) retrace back down to retest the support leg of X of the old bearish cypher pattern. The 50 day moving avg crossed the D leg resistances which held as support. The same test will have to happen for X leg before the 50 day moving crosses over .
My preference is letting the share price run before taking a short position, and likely get into a swing trade likely a 3x position as oppose to call/put options like spxs, faz because the volatility is there for 419 -420. I wouldn't enter one before I see those numbers

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1hr already has a bearish cypher in play near 417.50...

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another view of the 1hr

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another view of the 1hr

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base still true w/ bounce off of D leg resistances level, setting up future x leg retrace level.. previous resistances to support level retest

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this would give us "shorting the handle set up "

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If X leg support is strong and true... then those 430 calls look enticing... this would be the set up to the larger 1hr cup and handle breakout on spy.. and there would be serious of them to follow 2hr,3hr,4hr, and the daily until there was an invalidation of said trend.

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another handle structure that could form.. these are forecast folks.. this bullish cypher pattern is also a potential handling structure

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if after the 1st retrace from 420, they give us the x leg support structure and there's a 2nd retrace from 420 this structure still could be bullish under the bullish cypher pattern w/ 2 rejections... just a forecast s

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please be mindful of the Triangle forming on the sp500 futures...

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this could happen around 417.50-420 spy... (I would like to see 420 first)

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short set up ...

this is only the 30min time frame... bearish action could move to the 1hr time frame.... have to make that decision for yourself if you wish to hold or attempt to short from a higher position. im just pointing out resistances level... the previous short area, would have to hold as support or price action falls harder...

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30min bearish abcd pattern set up

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30min handle retest should be a concern and monitored. I've showed the cup/handle already on the 45min chart... likely continuation of this pattern to other higher time frames

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the stoch rsi is not oversold on the 30min chart, however, the AD is showing a bearish 18/50 ema cross set up. If this occurs price action could retrace back to 413-414 area for spy...grabbing some puts at the $415 price range

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however, its clearly overbought on the 1hr time frame

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The AD/Money Flow showing a bearish ABCD pattern as well, could retrace to bottom of the channel. I at least see a retrace to B leg... which is also near 413.50-414.5 area

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heck yea let these 415 puts print good money... dont get cute and greedy... im taking 50% off the table before closing bell and let the rest ride...

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overlapping the AD Bearish ABCD pattern w/ the Bearish Bat Pattern on price action... i'm seeing 408

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414.39 would be good profit taking zone at least 50% of my puts... and let rest ride

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looking for the AD to cross down through X leg resistances level, in addition the 18ema is trying to cross down through the 50 day moving on the 15min time frame, which is very bearish..

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1min time frame, bullish cypher rejected w/ Elliot Wave Count

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Im loving todays price action. I did my best to assist, and to help you get out in front of this short. I hope everyone is ok today. Im closing the short at 408.. Have a bless day ..

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decision time soon... to be honest I was expecting 408 later in the week... take a look at how the AD is pushing down through key fibs on the 15min chart. you'll see the .236 fib near 407.50..

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however when I look at the sp500 futures, that triangle I showed earlier (scroll up) you'll see a real potential test for 4000 which is very bearish .. X leg must hold... will likely roll some put profits into that 408-407.50 area if the money flow and AD confirms. I'll close this trade and create a new chart if I see something cheers.

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If D leg is breached I see 392 , X leg must hold .. im about to take profits ..will reshort if D leg is breached

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido:

closed the short.. puts printed good money ...

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now we wait to see if we get a bullish set up or breach of D leg ... will post a new chart if I see a set up. cheers

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didnt feel like making another public chart. likely 413 retrace up.. no position still... X leg bounce that I mentioned earlier occurred.

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its more evident on the 1hr chart

im stay in profit and look for another set up.. but this was the 2nd set up if you was following the trade short 417.50, and look for x leg bounce... I want to see the strength of this bounce before re-entering another trade on spy

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you have to trade between multiple time frames. take a look at the 5min chart, and you'll see the rise from 407.5-408 from yesterday to this morning price action.... also this could turn into a bear flag real quickly.. price action needs to get over X leg... looking for 413 this morning... if price action retrace back to 407 i'll consider a short, def. if it breaks D leg around 401 on the chart above i showed

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if the AD gets over the 50 day moving avg this will run to 414

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take a look at this

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just wanted to show how Money has its own patterns. I can short scalp this all day if I wanted to... Im not long or short at the moment.. still parked in profits.

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focus on the 1hr to keep you in the trend. The lower time frame trading is for more seasoned traders...

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im going to make this a liv chart... I see a retrace back to 392 probably by end of July or August will be another great long term buy

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just a forecast... i'll wait til later to finish this up

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does it make sense now?