40 Bar Cycle Chart - S&P 500 SPY SPX ES1! - Updated 122322

23 de dez. de 2022

With a key level of the JPM Quarterly Options Collar sitting at $3,855 on SPX ES1!, markets seemed to have been "pinned" for the time being as market makers position for the close of business ahead of the Christmas holiday.

Question now is are the bulls hopes of a Santa Rally into year-end wishful thinking? 🎅 🎄 Or, we see another attempt at a short-term relief rally within what is likely to be a continuation of the downward "40-Bar Cycle" that is projected to continue into the first few weeks of 23'?

SPY Daily Chart Template

tradingview.com/chart/5jxKmP...

Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets?

• Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED + Downward Earnings Revisions/Misses).
  
  *Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED + Earnings "Resiliency").

Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼