As we all know the markets had a negative month in September and it did not start off any better to begin October. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) made an all time high on September 19 at 201.90 and everyone was getting as euphoric as ever with calls of 2100, 2500 and even 3000 for the S&P 500. In typical fashion when everyone is on the same side of the boat, it usually tips over. This is precisely what happened as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) began to fall and people started to jump ship. And as usual the fear crept in, the bears began to pile on, and people were saying this is the big correction that everyone has been anticipating for months. So what is the market doing today? It is laughing in the face of the bears and trading higher by over 1%.
With all this noise I am here to simplify things as shown by my chart. I have included a chart below which really shows what is going on. As you can see the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is really just trading in a downsloping trend channel. At first glance it looks as if the market might be breaking out of this channel, however, I wouldn't quite sound the all clear just yet as these channels can pierce. I will be watching this pattern and when I see a decisive break above, that will be my signal that this correction is indeed over and that markets will proceed higher. So forget that head spinning noise you keep hearing from the financial media and look to this simple chart pattern for the real guidance.
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