SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST

SPY time to tell us for direction for the next few months

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SPY did break down from the rising wedge which is bearish. However, it didn't continue to sink hard what would be expected after dropping from such a bearish pattern yet it formed a bullish reversal candlestick pattern Hammer. There is also a chance for SPY it is the only Bull flag with the possibility of further rise. The sell signal will be active until it proves it is a bull flag and pumps above the upper trend line which is less likely.

Volume increase which supports the bear option.
It is above 50 and 200 days MA but still below 20 days MA which is neutral.
RSI Is cooling down and is neutral.
MACD histogram ticking stronger to the downside, while MACD did cross the signal line a few days ago which is proof of the new bear trend.

Overall: after breaking out of the bearish pattern it would be expected for a strong down move, however, SPY did find some support and hammer out. We will see today and tomorrow if is there any real support or still a few FOMO retail traders try to enter the dip. There is more chance for SPY to continue to drop and continue to drop strong. Once retail traders figure out HYPE is dead, there is no pivot or soft landing, SPY will drop like a stone.

However, the bullish case would be if bulls enter the market, and break the upper trend line confirming the bull flag pattern. In that case, we would talk about the bullish market for several more weeks. However, the possibility of it is less than 20%

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