SPY S&P 500 ETF Price Prediction for 2024

4 de jan.

This was my article about the SPY S&P 500 ETF price target for 2023:

I was bullish, but not enough!

In the July 2023 meeting, the FOMC opted to raise interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%, marking the 11th rate hike in the current cycle aimed at curbing elevated inflation.
The prevailing consensus among market experts hints at a potential shift in strategy, suggesting that the Fed might commence rate cuts later in 2024 as inflation gradually aligns with the Fed's 2% target.

Statistically, historical data indicates that approximately 11 months after the cessation of interest rate increases, a recession tends to manifest. This pattern places us around June 2024, aligning with my prediction of a dip in the SPY to approximately $430.

Given that 2024 is an election year, there's an additional layer of complexity in predicting market behavior.
Despite the anticipated mid-year dip, my inclination is that the SPY will conclude the year on a bullish note.
This optimistic outlook hints at the onset of a 3-5 year AI bubble cycle, with the SPY boasting a year-end price target of $540.

The integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors is expected to catalyze market growth and innovation, propelling the SPY to new heights by the close of 2024.