SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTViés de baixa
SPY- My arrows knew the way
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Potential To reject the backtest of the Ascending Channel's outer limits. This could generate more selling down to 280 for local (short term) support. I the arrows on the chart had been drawn in on my last post's update (attached below) At this point, I have already expressed my Technical Reasons in previous posts for thinking we are in a bear market. And we are going to crash for a long time etc.
Recap- 1.5 years of consolidation. 10 years of Bull Market. Started to show signs of a potential bear market. Had a powerful bear market rally. No big picture(weekly) chart changes. Double top. Ascending Wedges. Massive Divergences grinding for 3 months. Impulsive selling with different volume signatures ...
Follow my updates because I do more with updates than the original post.
We do have a descending wedge forming which could produce a bounce if we get much higher form here. But in bear markets, these things are typically bull traps. From here on out, every bullish pattern you see do a breakout to the upside be very careful about trusting it to have the follow through. Most will be throw overs and fall back within the breakout level and then sell off.
* It is difficult to say when we might get a bounce, or relief rally. Holding above 287.6, and getting back into the ascending channel could give us a bigger bounce up (max 290). So here we are at decision time. Favoring the sell off.
Recap- 1.5 years of consolidation. 10 years of Bull Market. Started to show signs of a potential bear market. Had a powerful bear market rally. No big picture(weekly) chart changes. Double top. Ascending Wedges. Massive Divergences grinding for 3 months. Impulsive selling with different volume signatures ...
Follow my updates because I do more with updates than the original post.
We do have a descending wedge forming which could produce a bounce if we get much higher form here. But in bear markets, these things are typically bull traps. From here on out, every bullish pattern you see do a breakout to the upside be very careful about trusting it to have the follow through. Most will be throw overs and fall back within the breakout level and then sell off.
* It is difficult to say when we might get a bounce, or relief rally. Holding above 287.6, and getting back into the ascending channel could give us a bigger bounce up (max 290). So here we are at decision time. Favoring the sell off.
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Ascending Bear wedge/channel. Typically breaks to the downside. Approaching closing time so expect volatility to pick up in this next hour.Nota
The break appears to be confirmedNota
Looks like back down, next support is today's lowsNota
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Price https://wouldhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GS53DEHK/Price would have to hold this level to get any bull relief rally very soon. Falling back to today's lows would be a big sign of continued weakness. Holding this minor support would give the bulls a chance to push things higher if they have any strength left.
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Smaller Bear Flag, Just above this Pivot Support. Upside bounce potential to the Green Resistance, break down likely Nota
We did not break down from bear flag but impulsed up to my Green Resistance max bounce potential. Let's see if it holds If it doesn't hold then expect a potential end of market Closing Bell Pump.Nota
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We will remain cautious of any bullish breaks of this Green Line if one were to occur. Even if a break were to happen I would only be closing shorts to manage risk. I would not go long on a bullish breakout in a bear market.Nota
Larger Timeframe we have two potential scenarios 
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