SPY Oversold Bounced?
Atualizado
Let's Debate.
I'm just giving an idea. Doesn't mean that I am correct. Why the market bounced today. If you pay attention of top 2 stocks like Apple and Tesla. They all look oversold at the moment but is it?
I notice Apple has a nice better form than SPY. Notice Apple just hit 1.382 extension. I see it has 5 waves and each wave has 3 subwaves inside. I think this can be a diagonal. If this is a leading diagonal, we may see shot term bounces and we may continue downtrend.
Tesla also hit 2.236 which is maximum of ABC correction if this is ABC correction. Notice Tesla just broke RSI trend line and has bullish divergence. I don't know if we need to test $206 again before actually reverse from here. I think many buyers would buy from this level. I would too. Apple and Tesla are too good to buy at these levels. Just my bias.
The 10 year yield TNX shows that I think it is a leading diagonal as you can see wave 1 has the highest RSI. The 10 year yield pulls back soon?
The dollar index: I think it forms an ending diagonal. It may reach $115-116 again before a real drop. This time I think we could see stocks and crypto have a real rally. If not, we could see it goes straight to $122. In my opinion, DXY is way overextended and RSI is at 80. DXY could be topped by the end of October. My target for DXY is $101 if this plays out.
Lastly, SPY has passed a bit below 1.382 just like from the January to June which is also 1.382. I'm sure big players been buying options since last week because I saw call options twice expensive this week. Or there are not much sellers this week.
What to do now? If market has a potential uptrend, I think it can wait for us to go long. Assume it won't go below $350. If the market continues down trend from here, I think tomorrow we would see a hard rejection and break $350. I think Apple and Tesla is short term oversold. I would go long with the market from here. Have my stop losses.
What's your take?
I'm just giving an idea. Doesn't mean that I am correct. Why the market bounced today. If you pay attention of top 2 stocks like Apple and Tesla. They all look oversold at the moment but is it?
I notice Apple has a nice better form than SPY. Notice Apple just hit 1.382 extension. I see it has 5 waves and each wave has 3 subwaves inside. I think this can be a diagonal. If this is a leading diagonal, we may see shot term bounces and we may continue downtrend.
Tesla also hit 2.236 which is maximum of ABC correction if this is ABC correction. Notice Tesla just broke RSI trend line and has bullish divergence. I don't know if we need to test $206 again before actually reverse from here. I think many buyers would buy from this level. I would too. Apple and Tesla are too good to buy at these levels. Just my bias.
The 10 year yield TNX shows that I think it is a leading diagonal as you can see wave 1 has the highest RSI. The 10 year yield pulls back soon?
The dollar index: I think it forms an ending diagonal. It may reach $115-116 again before a real drop. This time I think we could see stocks and crypto have a real rally. If not, we could see it goes straight to $122. In my opinion, DXY is way overextended and RSI is at 80. DXY could be topped by the end of October. My target for DXY is $101 if this plays out.
Lastly, SPY has passed a bit below 1.382 just like from the January to June which is also 1.382. I'm sure big players been buying options since last week because I saw call options twice expensive this week. Or there are not much sellers this week.
What to do now? If market has a potential uptrend, I think it can wait for us to go long. Assume it won't go below $350. If the market continues down trend from here, I think tomorrow we would see a hard rejection and break $350. I think Apple and Tesla is short term oversold. I would go long with the market from here. Have my stop losses.
What's your take?
Nota
Other news, South Korea and UK Feds are doing QE. That kills the point of our Fed doing QT. I don't know.Nota
Nota
Possible ABC.Nota
SPY so far so good. Hope it stays on upper channel.Nota
It is possible that we may break it today from what I am seeing this formation.Nota
on ESNota
Might reject at $3800 tomorrow.Nota
Tesla continues a correction? It may find a good support at $213.Nota
And Apple Nota
ESNota
Tesla. It need a couple days to stable and find support.Nota
SPY is looking for a supportNota
Tesla needs to hold $203 or it will go $200 or lower.Nota
Apple needs to hold hereNota
Looks like a sideway or bullflag on SPY. Once it finds a support I think it would go to $370.Nota
Apple breaks the channel in premarket so it drags SPY along with it. SPY found a support now and now close to $370 as expected.Nota
Great. ES found a support above the order block and broke the sideway channel. Next, we need to break $3780 in order to continue upside.Nota
I'm leaning that ES would retrace to $3720 before continuing upside. Good job if everyone make a big profit today.Nota
so far so good. ES broke $3800 and looks good to go up from here. $3777 is now a support. RSI looks like it might pull back a little.Nota
RSI might pull back but does not have to. Very bullish if it breaks the channel.Nota
Wow I got something hidden and might be crazy. Remember the main leading diagonal from January to June? I found that wave C of wave 1 hit 0.786.Now we might have diagonal because it also hits 0.785. Wave C should hit to 1 but it doesn't. This might be a leading diagonal if I'm correct. Let's see.
Nota
SPXNota
Possible diagonalNota
If I'm correct, this is leading diagonal. Wave 5 is about to complete in $3920-3950 range. I believe we may see a pull back soon and carefully watch it. This would be great opportunity to go long from there. I hope you can benefit from it if this plays out as this analysis. Good luck everyone.My bias is it would bounce at $3750-3800.
Nota
Alternatively, we have finished the rally. FOMC tomorrow will break the channel and target to $3200.Minimum time has met
We could see $4000 but let's see how market react after FOMC.
Nota
Bear case of ESNota
RSI hit the ceiling. Don't know what's next.Nota
Bullish case, we are going to go $3940 and $4000. Bear case if we break $3855, we are going to $3800 or $3750.Nota
So it topped when RSI hit the celling. Nota
PossibleNota
SPX 1hrNota
DXY is in correction mode. Bitcoin need to hold above 19k; below 19k we don't see 20k again.TNX bear case.
TNX bull case is to hold the channel and go up 4.6%
Nota
ES: bull and bearNota
My bias on Apple and Tesla. I could be wrong.Nota
Bitcoin needs to be bullish so SP500 to be bullish.Nota
Very weird market upcoming next but Apple is the main driver.This could be an expanding ending diagonal on SPX.
Expanding leading diagonal on Tesla. Resistance at $150. Support at $69.
Nota
TNX looks like going down again as it is trying to get above 3.5%Nota
DXY has met the timing requirement of this correction as it almost hit $101.5.Nota
Very epic close on Friday. Needed Sunday to confirm it.Nota
Fingers crossed. Currently SPX may have the same situation of this chart, where W2 breaks the rule. Apparently, this played out perfectly as it's for W2.Nota
See W3 can be sharp vertically or take long time to complete. W3 in orange is sharp; w3 in white is extended timing.Nota
This week is important to watch.Nota
No sign of bearish yet. Nota
These days the market is best for day trading. Still long term bearish because of crazy overextended trapping lots people in. The market has some corrections in both ways. Nota
Tomorrow need to bounce. RSI at critical level to keep uptrend.Apple
Nota
The market is a sign of weakness. Looks like not much buyers at this point. Expect a pullback on CPI following by a big dump.Nota
TNXNota
I think these setups make me think CPI is good. Then Friday dump?SPX
TNX
DXY
Nota
On 1hr SPX clearly show tomorrow CPI would be good.ES 1hr
Nota
RSI broke out the downtrend line on SPX shows likely tomorrow would be good. RSI is a leading indicator. This is why I love this indicator so much. :DNota
Made wrong prediction lol. If open gap up on SPX, expect to sell off from here. Limit up.Trade fechado manualmente
So I guess the bear rally is actually over. I'm done posting charts from now on. October to Fed is a 5 month rally. What a rally. Was having fun posting. Now I want to stay offline from the community. :D good luck everyone. I'm staying bearish until the market is bottom.
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