SPY Weekly -- A Gann look
After the all time high of 479.98 on 1/2022, we draw a Gann Box and fan from the COVID low on 3/2020 to the high on 1/2022. The 45 degree line is the red ray, and according to Gann, any price action below this line is a challenge to overcome to the upside.
We achieved price=time equilibrium at 50% retrace (point A), 348.11 on 10/13/2022. After that, a nice run to 459.44 (right circle and point B), and a pivot point. This was a failed attempt to overcome the prior pivot, 462.07 (left circle). It also failed here to break out above the 2/1 ray.
We are currently under some distribution, and I am expecting an eventual move from point B to C to 402.31 on or around 10/30/2023. This would be a 50% retrace from point B, about 12.4% decline. It is also possible that we could terminate earlier at another pivot, 416.49, which would be a 9.3% decline from point B.
We now sit firmly in the 2/1 and 3/1 rays. As these rays widen with time, the challenge to break to the upside increases. From C, I see a rebound from point C to point D (a 1.27% Gartley extension) to 471.06 on or about 5/20/2024, 8.92 points below the all-time high. As this is often a time of seasonal distribution, I do not see a new all-time high here, and maybe for some time to come.
On the flip side, 2024 is an election year, which often bodes well for markets, but I see many other macro obstacles that need to be overcome.
We achieved price=time equilibrium at 50% retrace (point A), 348.11 on 10/13/2022. After that, a nice run to 459.44 (right circle and point B), and a pivot point. This was a failed attempt to overcome the prior pivot, 462.07 (left circle). It also failed here to break out above the 2/1 ray.
We are currently under some distribution, and I am expecting an eventual move from point B to C to 402.31 on or around 10/30/2023. This would be a 50% retrace from point B, about 12.4% decline. It is also possible that we could terminate earlier at another pivot, 416.49, which would be a 9.3% decline from point B.
We now sit firmly in the 2/1 and 3/1 rays. As these rays widen with time, the challenge to break to the upside increases. From C, I see a rebound from point C to point D (a 1.27% Gartley extension) to 471.06 on or about 5/20/2024, 8.92 points below the all-time high. As this is often a time of seasonal distribution, I do not see a new all-time high here, and maybe for some time to come.
On the flip side, 2024 is an election year, which often bodes well for markets, but I see many other macro obstacles that need to be overcome.
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.