SPY S&P500 ETF - Lack of Fear, Sell if Range Expansion

The lack of fear on this decline is still a major warning flag. IF we see the market drop by greater than today's range, look for the market to accelerate down. I left the forecast on here from over a week ago. The correction has been less than I had forecast so far, since I had looked for a drop to the 200 day moving average followed by a large bounce, but that didn't happen.

My catalyst for a drop is two-fold; first, complacency during the decline and the start of the new quarter can often be a "get into cash" move as portfolio managers dump some of their window-dressing positions and then shop for bargains with their cash.

For now, we have a long weekend with no trading Friday, which means to me that the selling will start next week.

If I'm wrong, we can cover. If the market just sits here, that will set up an even lower projection as it means there are sellers sitting on top of the market here.

Time will tell.

Tim 4/2/2015 4:16PM EST 206.44 last SPY