SPY - Monday, November 2

2 de nov. de 2020

Slightly broadening descending channel saw price action deflected off the faster moving average on Friday - quite bearish. I suspect we'll see a replay of October 27. Bulls will try their hardest to break out of this channel. Given the week we're heading into, there will be very little fight and we'll see a continuation of the downtrend by the middle of the trading session or earlier. Although not depicted, we may see a quick sell-off in the AM with a rebound to the upper channel by the 2nd hour of the trading session. I clear bounce off of the upper channel with little fight would make for a decent re-entry position. If the bulls manage to take us out of this ascending channel, look for a deflection off the slower moving average or other support/resistance levels. On-balance volume is descending rapidly, which is putting our price target close to $314. Need to break above $335 before I'd even consider opening a long position.

2 de nov. de 2020

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If the bulls manage to take us out of this ascending channel... (Correction: descending channel)

2 de nov. de 2020

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Deflected right off the slower moving average and now we're ranging. If you didn't catch the re-entry today, another potential opportunity may open up Tuesday, Nov 3. VIX is primed for any selling activity in the power hour. This may rollover into Election day.

3 de nov. de 2020

Nota

VIX dipped while the Asian markets were humming away last night. This created a buy opportunity for S&P; and created our gap up this AM. The question is, will the upward trajectory continue, or is this short-lived momentum. Currently looking at hourly chart and waiting for a pullback to $334-335 with a bounce. This would cue us to close short positions and go long. VIX has some room to fall before we see it pop again. We're not out of the volatility hot zone yet.

3 de nov. de 2020

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3 de nov. de 2020

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For those who are on the fence about closing their shorts (I am one!):

3 de nov. de 2020

Nota

Price bounced off major support/resistance $338 this AM. We're currently retesting that high. We'll either form an "M" top and make a quick trip down to $331 or we'll see a breakout. This is a pivotal price point if the bearish trend is to continue. If it breaks above and holds, this would be a huge feat for the bulls. Tomorrow's trading session should be exciting, either way. I've closed my short positions after the bounce off $335. A failure at $338 will create ample opportunity to reenter short positions later this week. For now, watch & wait. {Discussion concluded}