Well this is interesting - within ATH striking distance/Fed pump
So, after Friday being the newsapalooza it was i hope you jumped on that train. Between the Fed not doing QE (it's kinda QE), good news on the Brexit front (more today as well), and our "Phase 1" trade deal (which isn't anywhere near being inked) we rallied up past the breakdown candle high, only to be rejected from it. I know a lot of traders took a short position from there, but on the longer TF's it did look like a bullflag printing yesterday, and there weren't any negative signals to be found.
Today we did finish above the breakdown candle high BUT with bearish divergences on the 1-4H TF's. A lot more pronounced on ES. Another thing that gives me concern for the bullcase is the lack of volume. That means lack of conviction. We were 1/2 avg volume both yesterday and today. The news is touting today's move as a "Great start to earnings season!" but in my opinion this is just a short squeeze or a bull trap until we can break that bearish divergence or get some conviction (volume pop). BUT, i can see this going to new ATH's just for the simple fact we're so close to it. There were sellers in the market today after some panic buying/short covering and if we do have any negative news it'll knife right through these past couple days back towards the $293 level.
This tells me this is more of a Powell/Fed pump than any real optimism on the trade front besides people poking their heads out thinking there might be a cease fire.
Without any bearish news or any large company completely wiffing on earnings this week we do have the possibility for a melt up/shot at new ATH's . But i do see us retracing at least a little bit before we get there. If we do head there straight from here it wouldn't be a bad idea to take an objective short position at whatever level you choose because those divergences will probably just get bigger.
If we get above the $305 level which is the top of the channel, PARTICULARLY with a divergence break to the upside we're off to the races. But also keep in mind if we do get back to ATH's that decreases the likelihood of a more accommodation fed.
This is for entertainment purposes/technical analysis only and is not to be construed as trading advice.
Today we did finish above the breakdown candle high BUT with bearish divergences on the 1-4H TF's. A lot more pronounced on ES. Another thing that gives me concern for the bullcase is the lack of volume. That means lack of conviction. We were 1/2 avg volume both yesterday and today. The news is touting today's move as a "Great start to earnings season!" but in my opinion this is just a short squeeze or a bull trap until we can break that bearish divergence or get some conviction (volume pop). BUT, i can see this going to new ATH's just for the simple fact we're so close to it. There were sellers in the market today after some panic buying/short covering and if we do have any negative news it'll knife right through these past couple days back towards the $293 level.
This tells me this is more of a Powell/Fed pump than any real optimism on the trade front besides people poking their heads out thinking there might be a cease fire.
Without any bearish news or any large company completely wiffing on earnings this week we do have the possibility for a melt up/shot at new ATH's . But i do see us retracing at least a little bit before we get there. If we do head there straight from here it wouldn't be a bad idea to take an objective short position at whatever level you choose because those divergences will probably just get bigger.
If we get above the $305 level which is the top of the channel, PARTICULARLY with a divergence break to the upside we're off to the races. But also keep in mind if we do get back to ATH's that decreases the likelihood of a more accommodation fed.
This is for entertainment purposes/technical analysis only and is not to be construed as trading advice.
