SPY- Kissing ATH's... goodbye.
Atualizado
This is not financial advice just a matter of debate.
We Broke through ATH's on SPY today. We did not get a large buying spree though. We instead have consolidated right above this highly watched ATH. We are creating an ascending wedge which typically breaks to the down. If we get back below ATH which is only .11% below us, then that would be a rejection of ATH, and I would expect that would make many investors nervous and could cause selling pressure. Looking at charts on small timeframes is natural as we are in the present. But when we look back at charts historically we typically use a daily chart and the little radar blips like this are easily justified. Remember the big picture. This is a very critical area to watch. If we hold above ATH versus Break Below it should be our primary concern. The weak manner in which we pieced ATH, makes me favor the bull trap.
Talking Technicals at this point is like a song on repeat. We all know the Bearish Divergences that have been accumulating energy for about 2 months... The declining volume on this 'bear market rally' especially in the last month. RSI readings that have been at historically high levels tied with the top 3 ATH RSI readings in Stock market history. All stochastics have been redlined at overbought including 1-4 hrs, daily and weekly. It's all really just a matter of when. Overall price structure still within the fairly standard bear market rally metrics.
Wait for your support to be broken to short. Either one that fits your risk tolerance and risk management. 1. Yellow 2. Purple 3. Next Purple
Traders should be looking for a large impulse selling candle or Large Gap down in the market to kick start the crumbling of this house of cards. The price action is and has been moving up but losing momentum as it pushes slightly higher each time. From higher time frames we can see that the price movement up is quite minuscule and is losing steam, one day of selling would take out 2 months up 'gains' A blow-off top is totally possible at any point, and that would be a nice confirmation that the top is in if that were to happen, but it isn't necessary or to be expected as prices can top with or without a blow-off top.
Sometimes markets have a way of hypnotizing people. The ups and down waves patterns get people distracted and confused. When things appear to never be going in one particular direction, that's when you need to know that the markets seek balance, but they are also deceptive.
I think that last week we hit an important zone of distribution, yet we had a very strange close Friday with price piercing the supply zone at the close. That really just kicks the can to today to see if we get bullish follow through as an organic move would or if it was mostly printed at close for day traders and the typical Friday pump crowd. So far today I haven't seen strong buying, even though we broke ATH on SPY. If it was a real impulse on Friday then I would expect real buying to follow. Personally, I'm writing it off as noise, because this follow through is not a breakout, its printing trap signatures.
TIP: If you buying shorts and see that your orders are having difficulty all getting filled together but instead your getting one contract here and a few there splitting your order up... then that is a Wonderful sign. In the classic Book Reminiscence of a Stock Operator, 'When a big wig gets a tip on union pacific to buy it up.. The first thing he did was sold a bunch short, so he could buy it back, and in that manner that his buy orders were getting 'filled' that told him everything he needed to know about the tip and that it was a good tip.' Because his order got bought right up, all in a lump sum, not fragmented.
I am unwavering and tenacious. I will not let up on my stance, I will not become a bull unless very convincing evidence where in front of us. I will not lose my position, I will be someone who's right and 'sits tight' for the big moves.
Not all bear markets act the same, and there is no way to know if the markets want to push a little higher still to do a backtest of the weekly support line that has been broken. That weekly support line was broken back in December and we are still living under it.. That is kind of like living under the 200 MA. There's a lot of bad mojo for stock prices living below such big time frame important historic support, now resistance. So we could backtest that which is probably 305 or something at which point if that were to occur then that would be the right place to short. SO sit back, don't do anything be patient to wait for supports to be broken OR for a retest of that weekly support which I will get to if we happen to go up from here.
We Broke through ATH's on SPY today. We did not get a large buying spree though. We instead have consolidated right above this highly watched ATH. We are creating an ascending wedge which typically breaks to the down. If we get back below ATH which is only .11% below us, then that would be a rejection of ATH, and I would expect that would make many investors nervous and could cause selling pressure. Looking at charts on small timeframes is natural as we are in the present. But when we look back at charts historically we typically use a daily chart and the little radar blips like this are easily justified. Remember the big picture. This is a very critical area to watch. If we hold above ATH versus Break Below it should be our primary concern. The weak manner in which we pieced ATH, makes me favor the bull trap.
Talking Technicals at this point is like a song on repeat. We all know the Bearish Divergences that have been accumulating energy for about 2 months... The declining volume on this 'bear market rally' especially in the last month. RSI readings that have been at historically high levels tied with the top 3 ATH RSI readings in Stock market history. All stochastics have been redlined at overbought including 1-4 hrs, daily and weekly. It's all really just a matter of when. Overall price structure still within the fairly standard bear market rally metrics.
Wait for your support to be broken to short. Either one that fits your risk tolerance and risk management. 1. Yellow 2. Purple 3. Next Purple
Traders should be looking for a large impulse selling candle or Large Gap down in the market to kick start the crumbling of this house of cards. The price action is and has been moving up but losing momentum as it pushes slightly higher each time. From higher time frames we can see that the price movement up is quite minuscule and is losing steam, one day of selling would take out 2 months up 'gains' A blow-off top is totally possible at any point, and that would be a nice confirmation that the top is in if that were to happen, but it isn't necessary or to be expected as prices can top with or without a blow-off top.
Sometimes markets have a way of hypnotizing people. The ups and down waves patterns get people distracted and confused. When things appear to never be going in one particular direction, that's when you need to know that the markets seek balance, but they are also deceptive.
I think that last week we hit an important zone of distribution, yet we had a very strange close Friday with price piercing the supply zone at the close. That really just kicks the can to today to see if we get bullish follow through as an organic move would or if it was mostly printed at close for day traders and the typical Friday pump crowd. So far today I haven't seen strong buying, even though we broke ATH on SPY. If it was a real impulse on Friday then I would expect real buying to follow. Personally, I'm writing it off as noise, because this follow through is not a breakout, its printing trap signatures.
TIP: If you buying shorts and see that your orders are having difficulty all getting filled together but instead your getting one contract here and a few there splitting your order up... then that is a Wonderful sign. In the classic Book Reminiscence of a Stock Operator, 'When a big wig gets a tip on union pacific to buy it up.. The first thing he did was sold a bunch short, so he could buy it back, and in that manner that his buy orders were getting 'filled' that told him everything he needed to know about the tip and that it was a good tip.' Because his order got bought right up, all in a lump sum, not fragmented.
I am unwavering and tenacious. I will not let up on my stance, I will not become a bull unless very convincing evidence where in front of us. I will not lose my position, I will be someone who's right and 'sits tight' for the big moves.
Not all bear markets act the same, and there is no way to know if the markets want to push a little higher still to do a backtest of the weekly support line that has been broken. That weekly support line was broken back in December and we are still living under it.. That is kind of like living under the 200 MA. There's a lot of bad mojo for stock prices living below such big time frame important historic support, now resistance. So we could backtest that which is probably 305 or something at which point if that were to occur then that would be the right place to short. SO sit back, don't do anything be patient to wait for supports to be broken OR for a retest of that weekly support which I will get to if we happen to go up from here.
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Currently at a counter trendline break .. Any lower would break it. See what price action does after this to get a good feel on how much fear is in the market. Nota
Resting on ATH now ... With 12 min until market close.. This will be interesting ... will my title be confirmed within the same trading day? Nota
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Leave a comment if you want the constant updates .. if not, im going to let er goNota
We can see that This Ascending Wedge is almost 100% full... Unbelievable !!! usually patterns get 80% full before breaking... We can get supported here and bounce to green box potentially before turning back down, or if we finally break with large sell volume confirming it, and Impulsive deep dive price action... Then we will know that we have finally arrived into bear territory. Nota
At outer purple support of Ascending wedge.. We get supported or break today. before close. supported i think a 618 type retrace will happen in futures tonight, break .. We gap down tomorrow. Nota
With the Extended hrs data .... also just past purple .. .THIS is a CRITICAL area. We get supported or impulsively sell off. Nota
All for your NXO : )Nota
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Aftermarket is finding support, currently at the outer purple trendline. If you recall this was the final area before the big dropping begins. I put up the fibs to look for a retracement if this support holds throughout the night.GL-
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After hours trading has almost hit the .382 retracement. I think .5 is a decent ceiling supply zone for this pullback. We also may have already topped at the .382 When markets open tomorrow remember to consider these after-hours charts. We are getting a pullback tonight and when we open tomorrow remember that we already got our pullback in after-hours. Nota
For planning purposes, this is my first main area to take profits and judge market sentiment. If that area doesn't hold, then I jump right back into Full Metal Bear https://outfit.https://www.tradingview.com/x/EvT1ONP5/Nota
watching for a break or support of the 'h' pattern. Short-able at red line below 'h' if it's broken. Nota
Or with the Similar SPX chart (including after hours data) Then this is what we have .. right at that purple support line and creating a potential bear flag... High Alert for breakdown or support here 
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