Índice S&P 500Viés de baixa
Prediction of events that leads to Market sell-off
Bullish optimism is misplaced on false hopes
- The recent market rally is encouraged by Wall street 'Buy on Dips" headlines to lure investors in
- Big institutions were caught off guard after the last sell-off and planning to off-load their stocks to unsuspecting investors
- Resistance and doubts are already evident in slow climb post last week rally
China has put a pre-condition on Oct Trade talk only reported by Chines News
- The offer could be contingent on US easing export restrictions on Huawei and delaying October 1 tariff increase [url=scmp.com/news/china/article/3026129/china-offers-make-us-farm-purchases-officials-prepare-trade-talks via]scmp.com/news/china/article/3026129/china-offers-make-us-farm-purchases-officials-prepare-trade-talks via
- Bejing pre-condition hasn't been widely reported to avoid dampening fans hopes
Chinese export growth continues to weaken
- The new Chinese stimulus is targeted to specific sectors and will be absorbed as tax cuts. Bejing has stated this is not a wide-ranging stimulus.
- Chinese Yuan will move to 7.2 in coming weeks to compensate for lowering the interest rate in China
Hong Kong condition has reached a turning point
- Will China tolerate the unrest in HK before Oct anniversary?
- Latest softening of Bejing tome could be a ploy to soften the blow to the market before October 1
Fed is expected to cut 0.25%
- The market will be disappointed as both equity and bond markets have priced near 1% already with further cuts that may not happen
- Fed rate cut may change the balance of Bonds low yields pushing yields higher that in turn will dampen the Equity prices
- Q3 earnings forecasts are expected to be lower than Q2 as Tariff impact bites into earning of Tech and low interest on loan impact Financial sectors
- The recent market rally is encouraged by Wall street 'Buy on Dips" headlines to lure investors in
- Big institutions were caught off guard after the last sell-off and planning to off-load their stocks to unsuspecting investors
- Resistance and doubts are already evident in slow climb post last week rally
China has put a pre-condition on Oct Trade talk only reported by Chines News
- The offer could be contingent on US easing export restrictions on Huawei and delaying October 1 tariff increase [url=scmp.com/news/china/article/3026129/china-offers-make-us-farm-purchases-officials-prepare-trade-talks via]scmp.com/news/china/article/3026129/china-offers-make-us-farm-purchases-officials-prepare-trade-talks via
- Bejing pre-condition hasn't been widely reported to avoid dampening fans hopes
Chinese export growth continues to weaken
- The new Chinese stimulus is targeted to specific sectors and will be absorbed as tax cuts. Bejing has stated this is not a wide-ranging stimulus.
- Chinese Yuan will move to 7.2 in coming weeks to compensate for lowering the interest rate in China
Hong Kong condition has reached a turning point
- Will China tolerate the unrest in HK before Oct anniversary?
- Latest softening of Bejing tome could be a ploy to soften the blow to the market before October 1
Fed is expected to cut 0.25%
- The market will be disappointed as both equity and bond markets have priced near 1% already with further cuts that may not happen
- Fed rate cut may change the balance of Bonds low yields pushing yields higher that in turn will dampen the Equity prices
- Q3 earnings forecasts are expected to be lower than Q2 as Tariff impact bites into earning of Tech and low interest on loan impact Financial sectors
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