Índice S&P 500Viés de baixa
🚨🚨SPX 2021: Major Bear Div - % of Stocks Below 200 Day MA🚨🚨
In this analysis I compare the historic growth/corrections of SPX with the percentage of stocks trading above their own 200 day moving average.
Currently the percentage of stocks trading above their own 200 day moving average has peaked in Q1 and has since been declining, whilst at the same time, SPX has been expanding, with multiple and consecutive ATHs.
Observations;
Historically, the break of 60% of Stocks below their 200 Daily Average leads to immediate market dump.
See examples between 2002 - 2021;
2002: Stock Market Sell-Off
2007-'08 Global Financial Crisis
2011: Stock Market Sell-Off
2015: Stock Market Sell-Off
2018: Stock Market Sell-Off
2020: COVID-19 Crash
Conclusion:
The market is being led by fewer and fewer stocks on each subsequent advance, a setup that can be a precursor for correction
A break of 60% of Stocks trading below their 200 Daily Average will lead to immediate market dump
Currently 50% are trading below their 200 Day MA, with ETA @ Support (60%) in October 2021.
Prediction:
If the Support of 60% Stocks trading below 200 Day MA is broken around Q4 2021, we will see a significant market correction.
If the support is held and the % of stocks trading below their 200 Day MA bounces back to lower levels, (50%, 40% etc.) then the market will be safe, for now..!
yemala
Currently the percentage of stocks trading above their own 200 day moving average has peaked in Q1 and has since been declining, whilst at the same time, SPX has been expanding, with multiple and consecutive ATHs.
Observations;
Historically, the break of 60% of Stocks below their 200 Daily Average leads to immediate market dump.
See examples between 2002 - 2021;
2002: Stock Market Sell-Off
2007-'08 Global Financial Crisis
2011: Stock Market Sell-Off
2015: Stock Market Sell-Off
2018: Stock Market Sell-Off
2020: COVID-19 Crash
Conclusion:
The market is being led by fewer and fewer stocks on each subsequent advance, a setup that can be a precursor for correction
A break of 60% of Stocks trading below their 200 Daily Average will lead to immediate market dump
Currently 50% are trading below their 200 Day MA, with ETA @ Support (60%) in October 2021.
Prediction:
If the Support of 60% Stocks trading below 200 Day MA is broken around Q4 2021, we will see a significant market correction.
If the support is held and the % of stocks trading below their 200 Day MA bounces back to lower levels, (50%, 40% etc.) then the market will be safe, for now..!
- What are thou thoughts?
yemala
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