Will market land hard over next 2 days?
INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1
We are potentially wrapping up Intermediate wave 1 and Minor wave 5 at the beginning of Primary wave C. We appear to have completed Minor wave 1 with a low by 12:30 on April 1. Minor wave 2 finished in the first hour of trading on April 5. Minor wave 3 bottom before 13:30 on April 6. Minor wave 4 may have ended today, during the final 30 minutes of the session. There is a chance Minor wave 4 ends tomorrow. This would require a new high above 4521.16. Right now, wave 4 has moved 49.59% that which Minor wave 3 moved. Although 50% is not an official Fibonacci percent, it is a historical reversal price. The biggest forecast metric for Elliott Wave Theory is the length of wave 3. In the current setup, if my wave count is accurate, has Minor wave 3 shorter than Minor wave 1. This means Minor wave 5 cannot be longer than Minor wave 3. Minor wave 3 concluded in 11 hourly trading bars. This means whenever wave 5 begins, it cannot be longer than 11 hours in length. If wave 4 has ended, 11 hours begin tomorrow. There are 7 hourly trading bars (in the 6.5 hour trading session). Minor wave 5 could end no later than 12:30 on April 11. It is also possible Minor wave 5 ends tomorrow. For this to occur, the index will most likely drop below the low (and endpoint) from Minor wave 3 which was 4450.04. At the very least, this requires a drop of 1.57%. This is certainly possible in one day, but something significant geopolitically or economically would likely have to occur. My initial targets are between 4378.34 and 4435.70, although my models have strong agreement at 4442.
INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2
When Minor wave 5 ends, so does Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 will be comprised of a three wave (ABC) which moves upward. This will most likely occur next week being a holiday shortened week. Economic calendar is light and earnings season does not kick off until the final trading day next week with the banks. This wave could last 1-2 weeks, until the full earnings picture is realized (forecast not good).
INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3
Intermediate wave 3 is where I am forecasting the most significant downward movement. This could be due to Russia-Ukraine, but it will also occur during earnings season. My guess is the economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, transportation costs, along with the Fed’s pace and rate of rate increases will take center stage during earning calls. This outlook may look bleak in the near-term, but I expect the market to find its bottom before the end of the summer and as early as mid-May.
We are potentially wrapping up Intermediate wave 1 and Minor wave 5 at the beginning of Primary wave C. We appear to have completed Minor wave 1 with a low by 12:30 on April 1. Minor wave 2 finished in the first hour of trading on April 5. Minor wave 3 bottom before 13:30 on April 6. Minor wave 4 may have ended today, during the final 30 minutes of the session. There is a chance Minor wave 4 ends tomorrow. This would require a new high above 4521.16. Right now, wave 4 has moved 49.59% that which Minor wave 3 moved. Although 50% is not an official Fibonacci percent, it is a historical reversal price. The biggest forecast metric for Elliott Wave Theory is the length of wave 3. In the current setup, if my wave count is accurate, has Minor wave 3 shorter than Minor wave 1. This means Minor wave 5 cannot be longer than Minor wave 3. Minor wave 3 concluded in 11 hourly trading bars. This means whenever wave 5 begins, it cannot be longer than 11 hours in length. If wave 4 has ended, 11 hours begin tomorrow. There are 7 hourly trading bars (in the 6.5 hour trading session). Minor wave 5 could end no later than 12:30 on April 11. It is also possible Minor wave 5 ends tomorrow. For this to occur, the index will most likely drop below the low (and endpoint) from Minor wave 3 which was 4450.04. At the very least, this requires a drop of 1.57%. This is certainly possible in one day, but something significant geopolitically or economically would likely have to occur. My initial targets are between 4378.34 and 4435.70, although my models have strong agreement at 4442.
INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2
When Minor wave 5 ends, so does Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 will be comprised of a three wave (ABC) which moves upward. This will most likely occur next week being a holiday shortened week. Economic calendar is light and earnings season does not kick off until the final trading day next week with the banks. This wave could last 1-2 weeks, until the full earnings picture is realized (forecast not good).
INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3
Intermediate wave 3 is where I am forecasting the most significant downward movement. This could be due to Russia-Ukraine, but it will also occur during earnings season. My guess is the economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, transportation costs, along with the Fed’s pace and rate of rate increases will take center stage during earning calls. This outlook may look bleak in the near-term, but I expect the market to find its bottom before the end of the summer and as early as mid-May.
All forecasts are based on analysis of past behavior. Prior movements are not always indicative of future movement. Develop the theory, test the theory. Do your own research. Nothing in this analysis constitutes advice. YouTube For More. Good luck!!
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