I wonder what awaits us next
Atualizado
I wonder what awaits us next 4000, 5000 or 3000, 2000?
I'll share my thoughts.
1. I look at all the tools globally in the context of months.
2. We can clearly see in all the indices of the world in which direction we were moving, this is a recession (the volumes decreased and the markets were exhausted). But then suddenly there is Covid, let's be honest until now we do not know the whole truth, where it came from and how. They declare a quarantine all over the world (at the end of 2019, they introduce negative trading in the markets, which we actually saw, that is, we prepared in advance and someone knew)))).
3. Everyone starts turning on the printing presses. Many companies suffer huge losses, they are given loans by any means. Despite the fact that everything is great in China, but the whole world is not China. So we continue, the money runs out, they print more, more and more...To cover the old debts, you need more money, but now twice as much and so on incrementally. It will take decades for companies to pay back all these debts.
4. The main engine of progress and increased economic growth is people, but as we see how many losses there were in 2020 (the birth rate is also falling).
5. Everyone is waiting for a sharp opening of the major economies of the world and is betting on hyperinflation, that is, they buy cryptocurrency, assets related to real consumption of people (a lot of noise, of course).
6. The Fed tells us that they will not raise rates until 2022-2023, there are two variations, maybe they will not actually raise them, as we will be bent on the result, which should have been or will be this inflation, although I am sure they know what awaits us in the future, since the plan is already ready.
7. Prepare a new package of incentives 3-4 trillion, again some kind of rush, and it is very interesting that the Republicans are all against, and the Democrats are in favor of.
8. Tax increases.
9. There is not enough money on the balance sheet of the Ministry of Finance to implement all the package of incentives, where will the money come from? Yes, there are three options: the first is taxes, the second is borrowing from the market (which will hit the market accordingly), but as we can see, our friend Yelen does not enter the market with borrowing, and the third is our favorite Fed.
10. It is very interesting how it will all end.
P.S. Everyone has been taught that while there is liquidity, the market will be bought off, and if this liquidity starts to come out and everyone is standing in longs, then we will have the steepest drop. There is a lot of noise too around the world, about stock markets and cryptocurrency markets.
I'll share my thoughts.
1. I look at all the tools globally in the context of months.
2. We can clearly see in all the indices of the world in which direction we were moving, this is a recession (the volumes decreased and the markets were exhausted). But then suddenly there is Covid, let's be honest until now we do not know the whole truth, where it came from and how. They declare a quarantine all over the world (at the end of 2019, they introduce negative trading in the markets, which we actually saw, that is, we prepared in advance and someone knew)))).
3. Everyone starts turning on the printing presses. Many companies suffer huge losses, they are given loans by any means. Despite the fact that everything is great in China, but the whole world is not China. So we continue, the money runs out, they print more, more and more...To cover the old debts, you need more money, but now twice as much and so on incrementally. It will take decades for companies to pay back all these debts.
4. The main engine of progress and increased economic growth is people, but as we see how many losses there were in 2020 (the birth rate is also falling).
5. Everyone is waiting for a sharp opening of the major economies of the world and is betting on hyperinflation, that is, they buy cryptocurrency, assets related to real consumption of people (a lot of noise, of course).
6. The Fed tells us that they will not raise rates until 2022-2023, there are two variations, maybe they will not actually raise them, as we will be bent on the result, which should have been or will be this inflation, although I am sure they know what awaits us in the future, since the plan is already ready.
7. Prepare a new package of incentives 3-4 trillion, again some kind of rush, and it is very interesting that the Republicans are all against, and the Democrats are in favor of.
8. Tax increases.
9. There is not enough money on the balance sheet of the Ministry of Finance to implement all the package of incentives, where will the money come from? Yes, there are three options: the first is taxes, the second is borrowing from the market (which will hit the market accordingly), but as we can see, our friend Yelen does not enter the market with borrowing, and the third is our favorite Fed.
10. It is very interesting how it will all end.
P.S. Everyone has been taught that while there is liquidity, the market will be bought off, and if this liquidity starts to come out and everyone is standing in longs, then we will have the steepest drop. There is a lot of noise too around the world, about stock markets and cryptocurrency markets.
Nota
Maybe I missed something, I'll be happy to read your thoughts.
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