2025 - 2026 Roadmap
2025:
- Cut Gov Spending
- (Lower GPD)
- Cut Gov Temp Workers
- (Lower Employment)
- Deport Service Workers
- (Increasing inflation)
- Tarif's
- (One time inflation event)
Cutting government spending should
cause a recession.
Note march 2025 : Drop and Bounce from seasonality.
2026:
- '2020 Fed Carry' removed
- Call of 5 yr 1.5% loans.
- Called loans result in equity sell off.
- Treasury funds gov with 30 year
- Incentive to lower rates first.
The government plans to switch from using 2-year bonds to 30-year bonds to fund itself by the end of 2025 or early 2026, under an agreement between the Treasury and the Fed. The downside? With 30-year bonds, they'll be stuck paying today's high 5% interest rate for three decades.
Lowering the rate first would be better and save money, which is possible if a recession happens before the switch.
To help, the Fed agreed to leave and make room in the 30-year bond market.
- Cut Gov Spending
- (Lower GPD)
- Cut Gov Temp Workers
- (Lower Employment)
- Deport Service Workers
- (Increasing inflation)
- Tarif's
- (One time inflation event)
Cutting government spending should
cause a recession.
Note march 2025 : Drop and Bounce from seasonality.
2026:
- '2020 Fed Carry' removed
- Call of 5 yr 1.5% loans.
- Called loans result in equity sell off.
- Treasury funds gov with 30 year
- Incentive to lower rates first.
The government plans to switch from using 2-year bonds to 30-year bonds to fund itself by the end of 2025 or early 2026, under an agreement between the Treasury and the Fed. The downside? With 30-year bonds, they'll be stuck paying today's high 5% interest rate for three decades.
Lowering the rate first would be better and save money, which is possible if a recession happens before the switch.
To help, the Fed agreed to leave and make room in the 30-year bond market.
Aviso legal
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.