Bear Markets, RSI and Structure
Atualizado
Just some ideas on recent bear markets and what to look out for during "bottoms". Although I think we could have a decent rally soon, I think the bottom of this particular bear market may still be far away. Some thoughts on 2007-9 bear market, 2000 bear market, and 1987 crash.
Nota
Potential 4 hr hidden bullish divergence. We opened above Friday's close. Nota
Possible area to buy - double bottom and smaller structural support. Hourly bull divs at this double bottom as well. Nothing confirmed until 3660 is taken out and even safer - 3700. Transports showing relative strength so far today, sometimes a bullish sign. Buyzone is incorrect under 3600 on an hourly close. They may try to get stops out from Friday before any buying comes in - if that happens. Bears still in control and trend is down, so be careful. Nota
getting a reaction at 3600 level after undercutting Friday's lows. Bulls want to pull up past 3660 bears want 3600 taken out on a daily close. Nothing is confirmed yet. Nota
looks like a bear trap after stops were taken out from Friday's low, The low should be in if we are going to rally Nota
here's the line both sides are trying to capture, bounce was from the weekly 200 sma Nota
US DOLLAR starting to break the wedge, not confirmed yet. Bulls are tough here. Nota
DJT transports still positive on the day Nota
daily candle shows indecision - Bulls held the 200ma weekly (bullish) and the structural trendline, but bears kept them under the high of the day. I'd say that's a draw and the candle shows it. If the dollar falls overnight expect the markets to rally, and the djt (transports) showing strength may be a hint. On twitter "great depression" was trending which I thought was interesting. Over 3650 and it will look much better for bulls but - solidly under 3600 tomorrow and it will look better for bears. ok that's it for the day good luck - Nota
Breakout of falling wedge with a bear trap thrown in - rally looks ready now Nota
breaking above resistance level Nota
retest of resistance - turned support - area, objective buy zone Nota
they reversed hard so it looks like we'll make one more low. Weekly BB is at 3491 and may be the target. I still think this week is the reversal. 
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