Índice S&P 500Viés de alta
SPX:2009 wave 3 bullrun may peak 4Q2022 @5345;see FRACTAL
Atualizado
Fundamental analysis of the big picture below.
On daily,SPX so far is defying a deathcross trying to retest 4600. However,Rsi is already oversold & may retrace a little to support @4400 before the historical April rally.
On the weekly chart here, SPX seems to be following the general movements of my fractal taken from the
microphone pattern of 2018-2020 & already made the first plunge due to Russian invasion. If this fractal plays out, we may see a continuing rally up to 5345 this coming 4Q ending the wave 3, a13-yr bullrun from 2009. 5345 happens to be the 2.618 Fib of the covid plunge. This may be the melt-up. What follows will be a big wave 4 correction to the lower microphone (the 2nd plunge) before the final wave 5 impulse wave begins. Getting thru the big wave 4, good things will follow.
This scenario will even be more probable IF the yield curve inverts soon. Right now it is less than 20 bps from reaching zero with the 2-yr rate rising fast & the 10-yr rate stalling a little at the 2.3 to 2.6% zone. If rates peak out at this zone, it will be good for the recovery of tech stocks & TLT bonds.
Normally the stock market rises with rising rates as long as it is not abrupt like what recently happenned with bonds selling off fast. Investors view slowly rising rates as a sign of the economy growing. The FED is now in a very difficult situation finally confessing that inflation is too high & not transitory. A hawkish FED raising rates too fast at multiple 50bps may increase the fear that it may stall the economy & plunge us into a recession. Fast rising rates will greatly dampen the future earning projections of tech stocks.
This is for your guide only.
Pls like & follow if you agree.
On daily,SPX so far is defying a deathcross trying to retest 4600. However,Rsi is already oversold & may retrace a little to support @4400 before the historical April rally.
On the weekly chart here, SPX seems to be following the general movements of my fractal taken from the
microphone pattern of 2018-2020 & already made the first plunge due to Russian invasion. If this fractal plays out, we may see a continuing rally up to 5345 this coming 4Q ending the wave 3, a13-yr bullrun from 2009. 5345 happens to be the 2.618 Fib of the covid plunge. This may be the melt-up. What follows will be a big wave 4 correction to the lower microphone (the 2nd plunge) before the final wave 5 impulse wave begins. Getting thru the big wave 4, good things will follow.
This scenario will even be more probable IF the yield curve inverts soon. Right now it is less than 20 bps from reaching zero with the 2-yr rate rising fast & the 10-yr rate stalling a little at the 2.3 to 2.6% zone. If rates peak out at this zone, it will be good for the recovery of tech stocks & TLT bonds.
Normally the stock market rises with rising rates as long as it is not abrupt like what recently happenned with bonds selling off fast. Investors view slowly rising rates as a sign of the economy growing. The FED is now in a very difficult situation finally confessing that inflation is too high & not transitory. A hawkish FED raising rates too fast at multiple 50bps may increase the fear that it may stall the economy & plunge us into a recession. Fast rising rates will greatly dampen the future earning projections of tech stocks.
This is for your guide only.
Pls like & follow if you agree.
Nota
Sooner or later, SPX will have to come back down to the 2009 trendline for a reset. From the Mar2020 plunge, it has risen up too fast passing above this pivot line & too far away from this pivot line so now it may have already started a consolidation chart pattern ultimately reaching down again to this pivot line. I chose the 2018 to 2020 megaphone pattern because I think 2022 will be a very choppy year in both directions. A lot of weak hands will have to be flushed out first before we can see massive buying again for the final big wave 5 to happen.Hopefully we bounce from this pivot line for the final big wave 5.
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