SPX - Probabilities...

Atualizado

No FookinFaqawiRecessionTribe around here...I'll leave that to other BullShitter's (Hey Look at Me)...But this is a "Broadening Correction" w/more arrows pointing Down than Up...Three Probabilities (PR)...Let's Watch the ShitShow!

Raise Cash...Finger inside the triggerwell w/your Plan....Process & Managing Trade(s)....Find-Fix-Finish!

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FEB Global Money Note w/Zoltan Pozsar

Now we have one. Covid-19 could de-stabilize prices at the micro and macro level in either direction (shortages and falling demand, easing and unanchored expectations). The V-shaped cut to industrial production growth that is coming is but one of many implications if contagion is not quickly stopped. The benign stretch of confident risk taking amid the assurance that central banks can solve any new problems appears now to end as we enter a zone of a renewed but old-fashioned type of volatility.

plus.credit-suisse.com/rpc4/ravDocView?docid=V7k5jF2AC-WEqAJ7

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MAR Global Money Note w/Zoltan Pozsar

In this issue of Global Money Notes, we present a framework to help macro traders think through how a crisis could spread through dollar funding markets, and what central banks can do to calm funding stresses: peripheral and core cross-currency bases are set to widen first, followed by Libor-OIS spreads...
...to at least 60 bps by June, if the outbreak worsens. The biggest risk we see to the plumbing is the Fed cutting rates aggressively, without pledging an open-ended liquidity support through its balance sheet: due to the inversion, money funds have seen $600 billion of inflows last year, most of which went to fund dealers’ and hedge funds holdings of Treasuries. Aggressive rate cuts could send those funds back to the bond market, just when the funds are needed in the money market due to missed payments.

research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=emcmt&document_id=1082246841&serialid=0b2M/IRv1F1JMLaFoTy3mHLeusulr/+i2siJQjbrrwI=&cspId=1929372245381636096

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://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=emcmt&document_id=1082246841&serialid=0b2M%2FIRv1F1JMLaFoTy3mHLeusulr%2F%2Bi2siJQjbrrwI%3D&cspId=1929372245381636096

://plus.credit-suisse.com/rpc4/ravDocView?docid=V7k5jF2AC-WEqAJ7

The Links do not work....Cut Copy and Paste into your browser and put https in front of each address...

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Google

Global Money Notes #27 Covid-19 and Global Dollar Funding

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USD and 10 YR Yields Dropping like a big fat american turd! Oh and VIX @ 45

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Yea that's OIL under 45 and Good ole FookinShitMyPantsGold going Higher...LMFAO!

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Cash is king, pay off your mortgage, and work from a position of strength.

MikeSans

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