SPX MY BEAR VIEW

3 de out. de 2015

Using Tim West´s long short filter set to 4-16 emas years 2000 & 2008 corrections were identified. The 4-16 emas also gave a bear signal in years 2010 & 2011 which were false signals. Yet when using this system along with T3 mvas 5 -20, years 2000 & 2008 experienced a bear cross along with the 4-16 emas. Years 2010 & 2011 the T3 mvas did not cross showing the 4-16 ema cross was a false signal. Using two different types of moving averages to try and filter out false signals. Although this current T3 mva cross along with the 4-16 ema cross could be a false signal. I don´t know, only time and price will show me if this is the case. In years 2000 and 2008 when the 4-16 emas crossed along with the T3 mvas, price experienced a bear market rally back up to its 50% & 61.8% fibs where price hit a brick wall and eventually traded back down to it´s -1.618 fib extension. Currently the the 50% & 61.8% are at 2003 to 2034 with the -1.618 at 1446 I believe if history repeats price could rally back up to 2003-2034 range and would look to trade long up to these levels. If price finds noticable resistance at the hwb, would look to short with a target at 1446 I could be 100% wrong so using a stop is recomended.