Weekly Prediction 9-13 May QQQ Iron Condor

8 de mai. de 2022

QQQ
9 - 13 May
The weekly VXN-> Volatility Index for S&P 100 index / Nasdaq
Implied = 37.4
In this we have to standard it for weekly session
37.4 / sqrt(52-> 52 weeks in a year) = 5.19%
My historical product is telling me with 1.5x coficient that the expected movement for this week
E Volatility = 38.02 / sqrt(52) = 5.27%

With this data, from my calculations, when EV > VIX, there were a 86.6% chance that the market
stay within the bottom and top created with the ranged from the E Vol

So for next week this range for us is going to be
TOP - 325.5
BOT - 293

Lets look into an iron condor oppotunity for trading:
325Call Sell - 328Call Buy
293Put sell - 290 Put buy

This is giving us at the current moment a 0.35 expectancy
So taking into account from 1109 weekly candles, that 86.6% of the times the market stay within our top/bot channel,
Our profit margin would be 86.4% * 0.35 - 13.6%*1 = 16.9ROI after 100 trades