QQQ 3-Year Correction Overdue

Since 2015 the Nasdaq Index has undergone approximately 25% corrections from all-time-highs every 3 years. Over this time period, the price has more or less respected the trend lines shown above. But perhaps a force more powerful than the trendline is the timeline.

The pattern repeats at roughly 39-month intervals from top to top:

May '12 - July '15 (1175 days)
pivot from 5/1/12 ATH, 12%* correction over 35 days

July '15 - October '18 (1170 days)
pivot from 7/20/15 ATH, 26% correction over 34 days

October '18 - November '21 (1148 days)
pivot from 10/1/18 ATH, 24% correction over 84 days

November '21 - February '25 (1176 days)
pivot from 11/22/21 ATH, 38%** correction over 324 days

February '25 - May '28
pivot from 2/18/25 ATH, ??% correction

If the pattern holds true, we were due a correction last week. My guess is we'll double-top December's ATH and then start the correction. How deep for how long is anyone's guess. Feels more like '21 insanity than '15 or '18 to me.



Notes:
*2012 (I believe) not yet representative of participation in the trendline pattern (still recovering from Great Recession)

**This particular correction was covid-anomolous (we were 24% above the channel already when we pivoted). This particular -38%, 324-day correction was more like 3-in-1: -22% in 97 days, -27% in 80 days, -24% in 59 days. You may get a better pattern predictor if you average the 3 moves, so -24% over 77 days. Alternatively, you can see it as two moves: an intial -22% move to bring it back within the channel, followed by a second -24% move to bring it to the bottom of the channel.