NZD/USD Long Position

6 de abr. de 2014

A move back to the 0.8680 resistance area is likely after Friday's NFP release. Last week's decline to a low of 0.8512 was mostly flow-driven, as the long Kiwi position was crowded and the Fonterra story provided an excuse for a washout in the pair. I expect the Antipodean currencies to remain bid amid solid risk-sentiment, especially the Kiwi, given the lack of risk events in the upcoming week. The FOMC Minutes is the biggest risk event, but unlikely to bring any surprises. The weather effects are now fading away out of the US economic data, but it will need continuos improvements before the camp of hawks calling for an earlier start of rate hikes within the central bank grows.

Technically, I expect the 0.8550/60 area to be well-supported. To the topside, initial resistance at 0.8620 and then 0.8680-90.