US Retail Sales and a Quad Witch DayAhead

17 de set. de 2021

From the point of view of macroeconomic statistics, the main event of yesterday can be considered the publication of data on retail sales in the United States. Experts, frightened by the pandemic and its consequences, expected weak data. But instead, it turned out to be a positive surprise: with the forecast of -0.8% m / m, it actually turned out to be + 0.7%. And this is despite the fact that the automotive industry is now going through hard times due to the lack of chips and the component of retail sales associated with the auto industry (decreased by 3.6%) dramatically pulled the indicator down.

In general, the auto industry around the world is frankly causing concern. In Europe, for example, the number of new vehicle registrations fell 18% in August and 24% in July. In this light, the palladium problem looks quite logical. After all, 80% + of metal demand comes from carmakers. At the same time, experts are quite pessimistic about the shortage of conductors and predict it for 2022 as well.

But back to US retail. Despite the excellent data, the US stock market was under pressure. The reason is the growing concern about the results of the FOMC meeting, which will be announced next Wednesday.

This concern may well intensify today. After all, today is the third Friday of the third month. The so-called "quad witch day". It is on this day that all major derivatives on the American stock market expire. At the same time, stock index futures and options, stock options and futures expire. Specifically, today will be the so-called quadruple witch day, when absolutely everything that can expire expires.

Such days are characterized by sharp movements in quotations, since players randomly close positions, as a result of which the trading volumes and market volatility can increase by one and a half to two times.

Since 1990, the S&P 500 has lost an average of 3.1% during such weeks, according to BMO Capital. In general, we warned you. Happy witchcraft!