NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The Index witnessed high drama during the week. The Monthly expiry played a vital role in containing the up move and made the bulls surrender for a close below 22K. However, the start of the new month saw a very strong pull back to produce a strongly bullish candle. In the process a new ATH has been made. As The risk perceptions seem to tilt towards a positive bias. This week is crucial for the further direction and the target.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:

• The index moved in a range of 560 points viz. between 21860 and 22420
  
• The oscillators of different time frames are stretched and showing mixed signals
  
• Option open interest to drive the direction of the market
  
• Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
  
• Volatility and choppy moves likely to continue for a couple of more weeks
  
• The stops above 22240 have been taken out which resulted in a strong upward momentum.
  

Additional interesting observations

• Index managed to scale a new ATH and posted a bullish candle
  
• Index may find supports at 22240, 22130, 22020 and the index could face resistances at, 22470, 22580 & 22670
  
• There were multiple gaps created during this dream run. The levels were repeatedly mentioned in the previous blogs. Since they are far away for now, they will be inserted back when relevant
  

Final Note

• The Index has stayed well above 55 DMA at 21719 and the 200 DMA at 20082
  
• The weekly charts suggest that the Index is moving in an expanding triangle and within the triangle the minor trend is in an ascending channel with the top at 22500 and the support at 21120
  
• The fault lines lies at 20030 at the lower end and 22510 on the higher end.
  
• Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 22030 & 22560. Breach on either side requires reassessment of risk
  
• There is no reversal signal seen yet and it appears like an extended rally
  
• The market is expected to remain volatile and witness choppy moves. This requires cautious approach
  
• The notable observation is that the Index has formed a tweezer bottom at 21860 there by making a case for further gains and new ATH
  
• In the past few years the March month has produced strong moves which are mostly in the direction of the trend. It remains to be seen how the scenario unfolds
  
• As highlighted in the past few weeks the Index is close to the target of 22450+
  
• Ensuing week is crucial for deciding the future course of direction and the target
  

#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.